12/18/2012 Live Update

[Cobra]

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Small gap up above yesterday's high so not sure if the gap will be filled or not.

Higher high on Global ES but not decisively enough so bears are not completely dead yet, although not much life left, because chances are this current push up rarely is just one legged, it takes a few up and down before a top is possible.

[Cobra]

members only update starts here: http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2012/12 ... ay-update/

[TWT]

Yesterday´s rally reaffirms that price has not completed yet the corrective up leg off the November lows. As you know in my opinion price is unfolding a Triple Zig Zag, hence if this count is correct, and if yesterday´s lod has established the end of the pullback from the December 12 peak then price has began the “last” wave (C) of (Z).

However I underline the second if since in my opinion yesterday´s up leg is a doubtful impulsive move. If this were the case then price may delay a bit the kick off of the “last” wave (C) with a flat or a triangle.

Below in the SPX 60 min chart I show the Triple Zig Zag count that I am following.

Conclusions from this chart:

• The Triple Zig Zag count is missing the last wave 11
• If at yesterday´s lod we have the wave 10 then the equality extension target is at 1451.87
• The corrective pattern could be shaping a bearish rising wedge, in which case the if it is confirmed then price will most likely
not achieve the 1x1 extension target
• It is not clear yet that the wave 11 is in progress hence a small flat/triangle is possible.
• 1398 remains the pivot support.

[Cobra]

DAX finally looks a little tired but don't forget usually this kind of strong up leg means the very first meaningful pullback would be bought.

[TWT]

Next in the SPX daily chart we have the bigger picture of the pattern from the September top. I have added a new Trend Line Resistance #2 that should cap the assumed wave (B).

Therefore after yesterday´s price action the 50 dma should now be unbreakable by the bears (Until next year) while above I expect that eventually bulls will be able to carry SPX above last Wednesday peak = 1434.27

A reasonable target, if this move is the assumed bearish wave (B), should be located in the range of 1446 – Trend Line Resistance # 2 (1455 +/-)

Yesterday´s Marubozu candlestick is suggesting that today we should expect a consolidation internal structure that could result in a small range body.

[Denali92]

For December opex weeks, it is an even split between Tuesday and Wednesday being the high of the week when we are rallying in to opex week - a lot of that is because FOMC is generally opex week except for this year and in 2007.

Overall, Dec opex provides very good buying opportunities from Thursday to Monday after, as the bulls need to be shaken out!

-D

[Cobra]

the open.

[gappy]

ewave.png

More for E-wavers, from the bagel boy. Paging vats; good show old chap. 5 seems doable, good luck to ya!

[Al_Dente]

UNG !

[vats]

ewave.png

More for E-wavers, from the bagel boy. Paging vats; good show old chap. 5 seems doable, good luck to ya!

Thanks..Velt is at 4.69, up 3.00 %....

[ClarkW]

UNG !

Yes! P*ssed, I mentioned it looked like a good opportunity over the weekend and didn't get in. Was sidetracked. Hope someone is participating in this move

[gappy]

ewave.png

More for E-wavers, from the bagel boy. Paging vats; good show old chap. 5 seems doable, good luck to ya!

Thanks..Velt is at 4.69, up 3.00 %....

[Tabby]

For December opex weeks, it is an even split between Tuesday and Wednesday being the high of the week when we are rallying in to opex week - a lot of that is because FOMC is generally opex week except for this year and in 2007.

Overall, Dec opex provides very good buying opportunities from Thursday to Monday after, as the bulls need to be shaken out!

-D

Thanks Denali92.

[TWT]

SPX: This up leg is not impulsve then maybe price will unfold a Flat/Traingle

[Al_Dente]

This is a thing of beauty
But if you use the Cobra trick “how far away is it from its 200ma” or PPO 1/200/1, you see that it is near overextended and will need a pullback soon
…. not yet … but soon….
[do the same with germany EWG = similar results]

[Cobra]

here's all the recent morning hourly black bar cases.
https://stockcharts.com/public/1684859/ ... /286407830;

[skittlesmds]

Anyone else having trouble with TDAmeritrade Think or Swim data feeds?

[Al_Dente]

XLF
9/14/12 high = 16.44
Today’s overnight high = 16.43
(recall 9/13 was QE)

[Cobra]

members only update at 10:10am
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2012/12 ... ay-update/

[ClarkW]

Good chart on the US Dollar and Euro from http://blog.kimblechartingsolutions.com/