01/24/2013 Live Update

[Al_Dente]

If you shorting XIV, today, yesterday, or tomorrow. you will make money within 3 months. who can predict that type of out come on anything, but on XIV it will be that simple

That is why my broker doesn't let me. I am forced to buy VXX instead.

U positive boss?
Maybe yr broker said there were no XIV shares available to short last month or the month before…
Maybe there will be XIV shares available to short next week/next month

[tradematti]

sold all longs , going 50% short.

[BullBear52x]

If you shorting XIV, today, yesterday, or tomorrow. you will make money within 3 months. who can predict that type of out come on anything, but on XIV it will be that simple

That is why my broker doesn't let me. I am forced to buy VXX instead.

you know their price is right not yours.

[Harapa]

U positive boss?
Maybe yr broker said there were no XIV shares available to short last month or the month before…
Maybe there will be XIV shares available to short next week/next month

I only know of times when I wanted to.
Boss, how about an intraday Tick chart?

[Cobra]

green line below the support. my wild-est-est-est guess for fun.

[BullBear52x]

If you shorting XIV, today, yesterday, or tomorrow. you will make money within 3 months. who can predict that type of out come on anything, but on XIV it will be that simple

That is why my broker doesn't let me. I am forced to buy VXX instead.

U positive boss?
Maybe yr broker said there were no XIV shares available to short last month or the month before…
Maybe there will be XIV shares available to short next week/next month

try 200 or 300 shrs at the time not the whole kabodoo of 1K at once, you might get lucky. but they will force you to settle with VXX and hope that you held on for more than 3 day they are good that's all I am saying.

[uempel]

Xian, be careful with aapl. In the 1920s and 2000 those stocks which jumped to the sky fell back up to 95% - check Nokia, RCA, Yahoo, Cisco...

[Daniel-David]

SPY testing VWAP first time today, a good place to add to longs..?

[Al_Dente]

[quote="Harapa] Boss, how about an intraday Tick chart? [/quote]
Here’s David Kneupper’s tick
(did u want trin boss?)

[Darkmatter]

http://youtu.be/PZhs7w-FzeI

Oompa Loompa, do-ba-dee-doo,
I’ve got a perfect puzzle for you.
Oompa Loompa, do-ba-dee-dee,
If you are wise you’ll listen to me.
What do you get when you guzzle down sweets?
Eating as much as an elephant eats.
What are you at getting terribly fat?
What do you think will come of that?
I don't like the look of it
Oompa Loompa do-ba-dee-da,
Given good manners you will go far.
You will live in happiness too,
Like the oompa loompa do-ba-dee-doo.
Do-ba-dee-doo

[Harapa]

[quote="Harapa] Boss, how about an intraday Tick chart?

Here’s David Kneupper’s tick
(did u want trin boss?)

124kneupper tick.png

[/quote][/quote][/quote]
I was looking for "essessme" version

[Cobra]

Or more complex top pattern for fun.

[BullBear52x]

If this intraday buy failed, Bears can sleep better.

[Cobra]

volume surge, support, biggest bar, so might see a rebound here first. then we'll see.

[TraderGirl]

Dow...So far we got a reaction off of this trendline...

[taggard]

what the fck is going on... no digestion needed.. straight up. can't believe people would buy into this... seems impossible to me. Who buys up here without fearing they're the greater fool ??? jesus

(1) Could be it's a hint. When market action does not "follow rules" sometimes it's saying something. Trader girl/bull bear and Mr T could be generally correct. Looking at the last 15 years it seems it could be a bit more fluid than the numbers they quoted--so the top in 2007 was higher than 2000 in dow and rut for example. Hence the idea of a longer term trend line on spx. Minor points aside--if you see "irrational action" often that will tell you something about the larger picture general cycle position.

Action can be most "irrational" around tops and bottoms. And this is often due to forced selling or buying--so it's really not about "people buying into" things--it's about lack of choice. For this reason it's always nice to see stops hit at tops--eg a higher high than last time. You cannot always get this--but it's certainly nice when you can. Nothing scares shorts like nominal new highs. Maybe they all sell it early this time--but we can dream can't we?

(2) Al (others) re AAPL the key to the fundies is the margins at this company. We are down 6% from ball park 44.6% gross margins so 38.6. Another way to see this is as a % of the prior total 44.6 in which case the 6% of total gross turns into 13% less gross margin. And this is just starting. The problem for AAPl is that lots of people make smart phones--and now a fair number make pads etc. The margin is not just due to "cool" it is due to product exclusivity. Maybe AAPL has the "next great thing" waiting--but after 3 major ideas it could be time for a break. So at 700 people were looking at 44-50% margins. if this gets cut in half to say 22-25%--you have issues despite a possible increase in units sold. And that too is at risk since generally we are supposed to hit the 80% zone of smart phone acceptance in 2013. You can never be exactly clear on these zones--but the general idea is likely a key issue.

So in the key market (for margins) you have some degree of saturation both here and even more so approaching--so replacement as opposed to 1st time sales. At the same time you have exclusivity ending. And finally you have (finally) some serious competitors heating up. Finally running AAPL is like herding cats--they are huge. This is very hard to do forever. And it takes a very unusual person to focus the energies. So that too is an issue.

bonus idea--People learn quickly these days--maybe watch India and China increasingly for interesting takes on phones and tech in general. These dudes are going to slam prices every time somebody comes up with something new--and slowly but surely be the people coming up with something new.

[Al_Dente]

[quote="Harapa] Boss, how about an intraday Tick chart?

Here’s David Kneupper’s tick
(did u want trin boss?)

[/quote][/quote]
I was looking for "essessme" version [/quote][/quote][/quote][/quote][/quote][/quote][/quote]
ITNRADAY ONLY for scalpers only
[edit: essessme tick is red 21ma]

[Cobra]

members only update at 12:29 pm
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2013/01 ... ay-update/

[Daniel-David]

SPY 5min bars-- rising 50 period MA, price, and VWAP all converging. Place to add to longs..?

[uempel]

Harapa, this chart suggests resistance, either at 1502 or at 1510 - what are your VIXs suggesting? Are they still 200% bullish?