03/16/2013 Weekend Update

[Al_Dente]

WATCH...( for the non-futures traders)
When this link shows a blank page, it means no futures are open for trading yet
It fills up with quotes as the futures start opening
http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/futboard/current/

[KeiZai]

OIL
Rhodes sees on the MONTHLY wtic chart:
“…a bullish pennant pattern is forming that projects sharply higher prices...to new highs above the $150/barrel level”

Monthly? Ok then, but I’ll be lucky if I can get through tomorrow…

[I think u have to be a stockcharts.com member to see this; I’m not sure]
http://blogs.stockcharts.com/chartwatch ... e-oil.html

Here is mine older but still actual, I see 80 as well as good supp but in ST this bounce is looking very corrective with probably another leg down to come (especially with this Cyprus thing it's quite likely)

[KeiZai]

$USD, another look at King green back

The attachment 1.JPG is no longer available

or bigger cup?

The attachment 1.JPG is no longer available

I like it I am watching RSI triangle on monthly, if we see breakout then target is likely around 90 or so, what would be C&H target?

older chart : have to find out why and how I measured the move to 102.6

[Al_Dente]

...don't forget to buy canned food after ZH article

Of all the places for a bear-catalyst to originate
They gotta pick on the Cypriot taxpayers
"let them eat Lokmades (Cyprus Cake)"...

One thing is certain: The squids are (and have been) covering their arses b4 telling their clients what to do

So the expatriated money will go TO WHERE? Citi/zh says it goes out of EUR and into: “USD, CHF, GBP, NOK and SEK buying (in that order)”

Now the Handelsblatt weighs in: "so it would make sense, in Italy a one-time property tax levy"

Oy, thanks homey, this is all I have 4 u now: a big fat cat

[SigmaEcho]

Tel Aviv TASE, opened today Sunday and fell less than 0.5%. It even opened positive, but turned with the news about a delay in Cyprus parliament vote on deposit levy. So take care... I'm quite short, slightly covered.

cyprus gdp appr 24B.
one week of qe ∞

blimp on the radar

[BullBear52x]

$USD, another look at King green back

1.JPG

or bigger cup?

1.JPG

I like it I am watching RSI triangle on monthly, if we see breakout then target is likely around 90 or so, what would be C&H target?

older chart : have to find out why and how I measured the move to 102.6

DX-7.png

92.56 some where up there.

[Mr. BachNut]

More bull market confirmation.

On my big picture chart, the NYSE average broke the 79% recovery line this week. I am not an Elliott waver, but I pay attention to it. All-time highs now come onto the menu of possibilities for the NYA. One by one the arguments that this bull is a corrective move in a secular bear (and that the March '09 lows will get broken) fall away.

All trend lines are pointing in the right direction here. The dreaded 3rd fan line is a long way from being in play.

[Mr. BachNut]

This is turning into the chart that cried wolf! Oy!

The 2nd SKEW warning expired and the current one has 2 weeks to go.
Last week, it looked like the option market bears were done setting the table as SKEW had softened,
but this week they went bidding on potential trouble again and SKEW climbed from already high levels.
Consequently, now that the index is back above the moving average, we are likely to get another warning in the weeks ahead if a correction doesn't arrive.

The area under the curve is starting to look quite large since this SKEW build began. That can't be good.
Whoever is going to be wrong here (bull or bear) may be quite wrong.

Based on what happened after prior too early signals, a correction ought to tag at least SPX 1512.29 when it comes.

[Al_Dente]

The revisions start already:
“news from both the WSJ and the FT ... the original confiscation thresholds of 6.75% and 9.9% for deposits below and over €100,000 is about to be revised.”

From the BBC, not an LOL

317bulldozer.png (129.57 KiB) Viewed 8059 times

[uempel]

Agreed. Check the secular mom, which bottomed in 2009
(Chart by CS/Rolf Bertschi, March 6th)

)

More bull market confirmation.

On my big picture chart, the NYSE average broke the 79% recovery line this week. I am not an Elliott waver, but I pay attention to it. All-time highs now come onto the menu of possibilities for the NYA. One by one the arguments that this bull is a corrective move in a secular bear (and that the March '09 lows will get broken) fall away.

All trend lines are pointing in the right direction here. The dreaded 3rd fan line is a long way from being in play.

The attachment NYA Bull.jpg is no longer available

[uempel]

Will Cyprus be the butterfly of Chaos Theory for European economies?

If we look at the facts it's unlikely: Cyprus has less inhabitants than the Bronx, 1.2 million versus 1.4 million, but per capita income is nearly 30'000 $ versus 17'000 in the Bronx and 32'000 in NY.

But if we consider the crazy idea of confiscating private money - hey, that's destablilization par excellence. I can hardly believe that politicians outside of North Korea or Zimbabwe can conceive something like that.

[HenryR]

The first fuse has been lit. I can't wait for the next fuse. Debt ceiling anyone? I wonder how my Jul FAZ calls will be by Monday's opening.

[Unique]

ES Support

3 handle risk for (1539-3=1536) for 1546 retest maybe...I'll prob wait, not gonna stand in front of a bear pounce

[Al_Dente]

[kenttown]

Will Cyprus be the butterfly of Chaos Theory for European economies?

If we look at the facts it's unlikely: Cyprus has less inhabitants than the Bronx, 1.2 million versus 1.4 million, but per capita income is nearly 30'000 $ versus 17'000 in the Bronx and 32'000 in NY.

But if we consider the crazy idea of confiscating private money - hey, that's destablilization par excellence. I can hardly believe that politicians outside of North Korea or Zimbabwe can conceive something like that.

If that anti Euro German party starts to gain momentum the markets are in for one heck of drop til September.

[KeiZai]

Will Cyprus be the butterfly of Chaos Theory for European economies?

If we look at the facts it's unlikely: Cyprus has less inhabitants than the Bronx, 1.2 million versus 1.4 million, but per capita income is nearly 30'000 $ versus 17'000 in the Bronx and 32'000 in NY.

But if we consider the crazy idea of confiscating private money - hey, that's destablilization par excellence. I can hardly believe that politicians outside of North Korea or Zimbabwe can conceive something like that.

Yes I agree nobody cares about Cyprus, the main issue is the latter. It's very dangerous precedent. In fact they actually don't need to do it in other countries but they have already opened Aladdin's lamp and people over the world starts to be fearful that this can also happen to them. U know that people are sheeps. And that's what financial world is scared about. It's all about bank run nothing else IMO

[uempel]

317futures.png

Wow, I missed it. Longs all hedged, but hardly any shorts

[StudentBill]

Will Cyprus be the butterfly of Chaos Theory for European economies?

If we look at the facts it's unlikely: Cyprus has less inhabitants than the Bronx, 1.2 million versus 1.4 million, but per capita income is nearly 30'000 $ versus 17'000 in the Bronx and 32'000 in NY.

But if we consider the crazy idea of confiscating private money - hey, that's destablilization par excellence. I can hardly believe that politicians outside of North Korea or Zimbabwe can conceive something like that.

Yes I agree nobody cares about Cyprus, the main issue is the latter. It's very dangerous precedent. In fact they actually don't need to do it in other countries but they have already opened Aladdin's lamp and people over the world starts to be fearful that this can also happen to them. U know that people are sheeps. And that's what financial world is scared about. It's all about bank run nothing else IMO

The most frightening thing about this is that all of the ridiculous things the leaders of the EU have done previously has been done in the name of stabilization yet they either abandoned that now or were, more likely, too foolish and detached to see the possible psychological ramifications of this on a global scale.

[taggard]

al makes the point the rates of withdrawals from the accounts will be lowered. uempel makes the point that "the facts" indicate the Cyprus thing is not an issue. But "the crazy idea" opens the way to it being an issue.

just my opinion using the two points above as a place of departure. First i tend to unify uempel's ideas into "there are "real" absolutes in the universe--but humans attribute meaning to them". That is most of the time "facts"--even if they can be proven--which is fairly rare in economic social and political settings (and really hard in even in "hard" sciences) are not the issue it is the meaning attributed to the facts that is the issue.

so when you read people making this or that statement about an event in the world--it matters little that it is "true" in any absolute sense. modern economics/political business theory--or at least what is publicly discussed--is about where science was in the period 1000-1500 bc in the euro zone. supporting economies using the idea that banks can borrow at 0% and buy gov debt is straw into gold stuff. the correct way to grow liquidity is to increase the rate of change in technology and social conditions--eg highst and best use of capital--but next to borrowing at 0% and levering gov debt it has little chance. the facts seem to indicate that you take a chance with technology and not with buying endless gov debt.

Second to combine both the ideas (a) the withdrawals are going to be lowered--and (b) the small but crazy ideas. First the reason for this move is partly (exact amount unknown) due to the german elections in september (god forbid the wrong dudes get in and germany pulls the plug on any euro zone bail out). as a result the whole idea that "the books have to be balanced" currently named "austerity" which is an miserable concept--second only to the corrupt insanity of what people did that led to this. like a series of gang wars--violence begets violence and everyone justifies a whole next act of violence and stupidity based on some event in the past. just as you need to break the cycle in violence in gangs and the world in general--you must break the link between too much capital to the "wrong place" and then insane pull backs. sadly this is not an easy thing to grasp--esp since it involves thinking in decades in a world of twitter thinking. so we can count on the austerity coming to a bad end--and then that bad end eventually leading back to . . oh why bother.

third the action is showing you just how bad things are--and the focus--which is to support banks larger bond holders and governments no matter what the cost--and no matter how unlikely the solution will work over time. Third related to the second point is the idea that we are nearing a point where trust in the system is becoming an issue. and that is why (1) it's insane to make the proposal of forced withdrawals. (2) but equally crazy to suddenly back off. this is showing large groups of people who are supposed to be solving the problem are totally clueless and scared from both directions. lack of stability is usually a bad sign--because it suggests that all choices are poor (as seen from the top down)

bottom line the more you see like this--the closer we are to pressing the once in 90 year reset. which should show up as some sort of half way decent regulations in banks and large financial guys. at this point the idea is any decent rule set will crash the system--and that does not make me all that confident. the good news is all this stuff will be superseded by the changes in technology over the next 10 years--esp in energy and medicine two huge problems today.

a fine study (far more useful than any econ stuff) came out last week you can goog the title--but here is the good stuff

Swarm intelligence: Study uncovers new features of collective behavior when overcrowding sets in

In their model, in addition to the ability to align with its neighbours, each model animal is endowed with two new features: one for collision avoidance and another preventing direction change at every step to ensure persistence of motion. The team performed computer simulations of up to 100,000 self-propelled particles, each mimicking an individual animal and moving at a constant speed on a plane surface.

They found that when the swarm becomes overcrowded, the globally ordered motion breaks down. At high density and when the nearest neighbours are within one step of each other, each animal can no longer decide on the safe direction of motion. Instead, it is busy correcting its motion to avoid collisions.

They also described, for the first time, a power law that quantifies the average degree of alignment in the direction of motion for animals within the swarm. The law describes how the alignment decays from the centre of the swarm, where animals can best judge the swarm motion due to their maximum number of neighbours, to the periphery.

in this context chart work is the art of watching swarms--it is always amusing when people come up with models of how to do this--since the model will always be based on the 80% of the bell curve in the middle "dudes it totally backtested" and will fail only when it is needed--during the remaining 20 percent of the time. in short "when you get tail--your brain goes out the window". perhaps this is as it should be--but the real trick is seeing that "tail time" on the swarm reader--and acting outside the usual parameters. functionally it's like flying an airplane where the instruments work decently during the day time but fail at night.

may you be close to the middle of your swarm and not spend too much time correcting your motions to avoid the dudes next to you.

[Al_Dente]

The attachment 317futures.png is no longer available

Wow, I missed it. Longs all hedged, but hardly any shorts

Boss we’ve seen variations on this theme before:
Futures go nuts
Then by the time New York [edit: NYSE] opens, the story gets diluted and revised and dialed down to near-zero
Hey, this time could be different...
Here’s Gold 5minute bars right now [see oil right now for another “OY” in caps]