03/29/2013 Weekend Update

[TWT]

THE CORRECTIVE UP LEG FROM THE NOVEMBER LOWS IS APPROACHING ITS END

The sideways pattern (Contracting) from the March 15 peak has formed a plausible Triangle. EW wise a Triangle always precedes the final wave structure that completes an EWP.

Due to the lack of an impulsive internal structure in the up leg from the February 26 reaction low, in my opinion, this is a Triangle wave (B).

But since the “thrust” out of the Triangle is also corrective I have to consider that price instead of unfolding an impulsive wave (C) = (Z), from the November 16 low, it will unfold an Ending Diagonal therefore the top could be delayed 1 or 2 more weeks.

Potential Target range for the pending wave (C) = (Z) :

• The measured target of Triangle is at 1583 +/-
• Extension target ==> 0.618 (A) = 1600 // 1 x 1 (A) = 1629.75

If the up leg from the November lows is unfolding a Triple Zig Zag we already know that price is not establishing a major top yet (The assumed wave X from the 2009 low cannot be considered over with a corrective up leg). Instead the following pullback should bottom in the range 1485 – 1435

As I mentioned on March 19: “The major consequence of being a corrective up leg resides in the implications for the long-term pattern, since the idea suggested in my last weekly update could become the front-runner option”. I am referring to an Ending Diagonal that will complete the Triple Zig Zag from the November 2008 low. If this scenario plays out then price will establish a Major Top during the last quarter 2013 - first quarter 2014

[TWT]

I am monitoring the following etf which are also forming a likely Triangle wave (B)

SMH & IWM

[Al_Dente]

SPX is up, dollar is up, bonds are up
IEF made a new high
Something’s got to give

[Al_Dente]

Bespoke
“Economic Indicators Ending March On A Down Note”
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1307061 ... view&ifp=0

[stlwater]

I am monitoring the following etf which are also forming a likely Triangle wave (B)

SMH & IWM

I'm sure you've noticed this much larger triangle

This is my count of the daily triangle and likely continuation of the trend

[Al_Dente]

PAGING THE PANDA:
I know u like the aud. This is new:
Direct convertibility between the Australian dollar and the Chinese yuan [renminbi RMB], without US Dollar intermediation...
“…should this experiment in FX liberalization work out to China's satisfaction, expect Beijing to engage many more trade partners in
direct currency conversion.”

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-03-3 ... currency-c

[TraderGirl]

$NYA50R compared to the SPX...a fall below 200 MA usually indicated a pullback of some kind....all we need is 2-3 days of a pullback and we are there....

[TraderGirl]

$BPSPX....a cross below the 50 MA (blue line) has yielded a top of some kind...also caused MACD to cross below zero...again, 2-3 days of pullback could put us there....

[TraderGirl]

Weekly chart shows a potential pullback this week...and astro's support this....

A 2-3 day pullback could also give a cross of the MACD....BBands have widened...support in the 1500 range in the coming week(s)....

[TraderGirl]

Potential count...ending expanding diagonal for wave (5) of 5....

[TraderGirl]

SOX...interesting pattern on the SOX...3 pushes up, and on the 3rd push up a break out in RSI...??

Anyways...Could we be in a "B" wave triangle = continuation pattern...we'll see...

[Mr. BachNut]

The chart that cried wolf still has a correction warning.
Two more weeks to go under the current warning.
As this has been going on for 2 months and almost 2%, this is joining a growing list of bear fails.
I have gotten some use out of it though.
Over the last two weeks, I have been cautious and put on some hedge when we got a high close. These have generally been followed by small corrective moves allowing for some hedge profit.

[jademann]

http://bpt-news-images.s3.amazonaws.com ... 586967.png

copper warning?

[gappy]

$NYA50R compared to the SPX...a fall below 200 MA usually indicated a pullback of some kind....all we need is 2-3 days of a pullback and we are there....

Here's your pullback TraderGirl.

moony.png

From Spiraldates.com. GL this week TA.

[Sleeperz]

USO could break out of the symetrical triangle or pull back if the US$/UUP goes higher.

[TradingJackal]

YM. Should complete by morning bringing weakness in the morning.