04/06/2013 Weekend Update

[Cobra]

STOCKCHARTS.COM subscribers
New Toys:

47gdp.png

47new econ.png

Nice. Really nice.

[BullBear52x]

STOCKCHARTS.COM subscribers
New Toys:

The attachment 47gdp.png is no longer available

The attachment 47new econ.png is no longer available

You are the man Doc.

[Al_Dente]

We expect inverted-VIX to move in the direction of SPX.
These days it is starting to get a bit out of correlation (stocks are going up; volatility traders are buying put protection).
Since 2009, when inverted-VIX has fallen out of correlation with SPX, it has most of the time (not always) been bull-SPX.
As u can see, it is not extreme yet

[Al_Dente]

Cobra and BullBear52x:
How cool is that?
It appears that they are pulling data from the FRED database
However, when I type $$ into the "Create a Chart" box, the new list doesn’t come up correctly.
I sent stockcharts.com an email and asked them about it; no reply yet.
It’s important, as they say they will be ADDING new symbols to that list this week, so stay tuned.

ps: bb52x could u please send me a pm link to your cool M1 money supply chart. thanks in advance
[stockcharts.com said only MONTHLY is available, so i'm surprised to see your WEEKLY]

[Al_Dente]

When commodities are weak, the commodity producing countries are also hurt.
On top is a John Murphy chart
In the bottom chart, I added SPX and Australia and USD

[BullBear52x]

Cobra and BullBear52x:
How cool is that?
It appears that they are pulling data from the FRED database
However, when I type $$ into the "Create a Chart" box, the new list doesn’t come up correctly.
I sent stockcharts.com an email and asked them about it; no reply yet.
It’s important, as they say they will be ADDING new symbols to that list this week, so stay tuned.

ps: bb52x could u please send me a pm link to your cool M1 money supply chart. thanks in advance
[stockcharts.com said only MONTHLY is available, so i'm surprised to see your WEEKLY]

I am away from my computer, I have no problem with daily either when I check it out.
http://scharts.co/ZHWoi8

[ClarkW]

Paging KeiZai: What are your thoughts on Coffee? On Monthly ChiOsc and MACD lowest in 20 years. Positive D on weekly. Break up, out of this wedge or one more drop? We'll see

Hi Clark, nice work mate! yes we are close to some kind of bottom I am thinking about wedge too but with the commodities (in big pic) it's a "little" tricky. I have read dozens of researches and spent hundreds of hours analyzing the comm charts and I have come to conclusion that no one know what's really going on in this sector. Here are some my infos I put together :

No doubts that commodities are trading in the final stages of bull cycle. They usually end with explosive move (which have been accompanied with secular bottoms in equities) the question is have we seen this already? I don't think so, my guess is we are missing one deflationary wave in comms (c-wave) and then we could still see final overshooting spike in next years/months as we are only at the lowest range of secular bull cycle(12y). I think currently we are working on connector(b-wave) between two deflationary waves (a-c).

This is my prefered chart for CCI, I am expecting some kind of strength - similar to june 2012

comm-CCI.png

Maybe this structure is finally done and CRB could outperform SPX in next weeks/months (?money out of stocks → commodities? yes it's possible)

comm-CRB-SPX.png

Here is BP of CRB, stopped at equal legs but final push up (3rd) still possible

comm-CRB2.png

Previous cycle looks very similar to current one (imo) - abc after 12years with another high after that? WWS

UScommoditycycles.jpg

According to K-waves, B and C waves before ultimate spike and bust are possible

Comm-K-wave2.png

Comm-K-wave.png

Copper is the first deflationary warning sign

Copper-April.png

And finally the mother of risk assets...not if but when....

comm-AUD.png

Oh I totally forgot about coffee

Short term corrective up&down, I expected 5waves but it didn't happen viewtopic.php?f=2&t=859&p=123007#p123007 so I am leaning toward some kind of wedge pattern.

Coffee-April.png

Note: I just noticed there is not 2x bottom it's a P-bar

Big picture as I said tricky, after breakout and wave structure it will be clearer, until then I am watching these two possible bounce targets

Comm-coffee.png

OUTSTANDING, OUTSTANDING, OUTSTANDING. Great stuff KeiZai! Thank YOU!!!

[Unique]

Keizai, did you play the coffee bottom? Bullish candle reversal ever since 3/22/2013, 135->144 is next target.

[TWT]

$EURUSD: The rebound is not over yet

[KeiZai]

Keizai, did you play the coffee bottom? Bullish candle reversal ever since 3/22/2013, 135->144 is next target.

Hi Unique, not yet I want to see one more low or impulsive wave (breakout) with backtest in 3 waves (right shoulder) before buying, current structure does not look as impulsive to me (so far)...I want to play it but likely later


R2K getting close to reshort spot

Hello p-bar : viewtopic.php?f=2&t=878&p=125425#p125425

P.S: Thanks Clark!