05/11/2013 Weekend Update

[Cobra]

Begin with Algo from stocktiming. I see no negative divergence yet, so likely more up ahead, only small pullback in between.

[Cobra]

nothing interesting on institutional buying and selling action chart (also from stocktiming). Obviously institutions are accumulating.

[Cobra]

II and AAII. AAII shows retailers change view very fast while II shows newsletter writers are mostly bullish.

[Cobra]

Smart money closes to record short.

[Cobra]

Summary of the week's stock picks. Again as long as you know Buy Stop, they're easy money.
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=910&p=130227#p130227

[Cobra]

People asked what's next when NDX weekly bar opened and closed above its BB top? Here's the back test results.

[Cobra]

Stock picks for next week are here: viewtopic.php?f=10&t=917&p=130230#p130230

[alvian33]

hi cobra,

you mentioned the top could be around based on the line trend signal, i forgot which indicator is that, but basically you said is very reliable, do you still think we are close to a top, i know this market is crazy, and nothing works, but are we close to the extremes?

thanks

[Cobra]

hi cobra,

you mentioned the top could be around based on the line trend signal, i forgot which indicator is that, but basically you said is very reliable, do you still think we are close to a top, i know this market is crazy, and nothing works, but are we close to the extremes?

thanks

I think you mean this chart: https://stockcharts.com/public/1684859/ ... /240122472;

It's reliable but sometimes it only means just one day pullback after the signal triggered which was indeed, so the signal was kind of fulfilled now. Not sure if more pullback ahead or not.

[Al_Dente]

Margin debt

[Al_Dente]

Earnings beat rate was soft last week; the revenue beat rate “pretty much remained the same.” [Bespoke]
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1425061 ... beat-rates

[Al_Dente]

Barry’s Succinct Summations for the week ending May 10, 2013:

Positives:
1. S&P 500 and the Dow continue their ascent, both hitting new all-time highs.
2. U.S. weekly jobless claims come in at their lowest reading since January 2008. 323K v expectations of 335k.
3. Yen weakens to 100 v the dollar for the first time in 4 years.
4. Nikkei tops 14,000, highest level in nearly 5 years (gained 6.7% for the week).
5. Dow Jones Industrial Average has not had a losing streak of 3 days this year — longest such streak since 1958.
6. The German Dax hits highest levels ever as German factory orders for March grow 2.2% v expectations of a decline of 0.5%.
7. Bank of Korea joins the party, cuts key interest rate to 2.5% from 2.75%.
8. This was the strongest week for equity-fund inflows in 8 weeks
9. Housing remains a tailwind as MBA mortgage applications climbed 7% week-over-week, rising for the 5th consecutive weak.
10. Over the last 6 trading days, the 10-year yield has had its biggest positive move since March 2012 (via Bespoke).

Negatives:
1. April retail sales gain 2.8% v expectations of +3.5%.
2. Ira Sohn conference consensus is for a melt-up means long side may be getting crowded
3. Wholesale sales came in weak, falling 1.6% month-over-month v expectations of 0.1% growth.
4. Job openings fell in March to 3.84M from 3.90M in February. This did however beat expectations for 3.77M job openings.
5. The hiring rate declined to 3.2% from 3.3%, pretty benign.

[BullBear52x]

Funny I still hear that the TA is not working. I think that is more of a fundamental flaw. eco datas and man made interventions etc,. on the TA front, here look at simple MACD and RSI(5) = DMA(5). I think for short term knowing ones' time frame to trade with is the most important, and know when to fold is a must. IMO

[BullBear52x]

Intraday trade is another life in itself, no overnight holding unless small move made to the meaningful start of something else.IMHO
ie: GLD, intraday = sell, since the closed is below 5dma holding short position overnight is what I will do any trade higher than 5 dma will be a stop, a close above 5 dma to follow is when I will reverse course to buy GLD.

On SLV here for example, I got sell intraday also on Friday but got stop out during the day and at a close I now got positive histogram, dip will be bought. short term trend wise it's still trading under 5 dma so downtrend is on but intraday buy the dip will be my next move on SLV if I chose to trade it.

[BullBear52x]

Candle fun, I know someone from intraday forum mentioned bearish harami on Thursday, just like any candle or candle formation they need confirmation even then they never guaranteed the continuation. now I can see if you use candle as your main trading analysis you will be disappointed.

Okey...what do we have here? somewhat looks like a bearish stick sandwich to me, or no? implies more bearish than bullish but I will not trade purely from them alone. That's it from The take it simple and it is what it is department. nice day out enjoy your weekend.

[taggard]

kyle bass re chitown econ talk about "game over japan kinda thing"

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7kFcDKBpdII

mauldin-

As of the last two weeks, Japanese investors are now net buyers of foreign bonds,

fast version for twitter crowd?

95% japanese bonds held by locals
95% of these locally held bonds held by institutions
92% of institutional guys who deal with bonds asked "if rates go up would you buy more bonds or not" said "not"
8% said more bonds.

hint--the density of holdings in local institutions both allows for and encourages rapid selling at some point.

[uempel]

I can't get into stockcharts at the moment - you guys too?

[StudentBill]

I can't get into stockcharts at the moment - you guys too?

Was down for me too. Now back up.

[kenttown]

[KeiZai]

2 big pic charts I am watching (for fun only)

but while we are above breakout point hard to find something bearish (at some point backtest would be good tho)

Monthly DOW

Mr. SPX

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BTW might not a bad idea to open stock investing ideas/setups thread or something like that, I see much better setups there than playing the slow index creeping imho

Even the junk stock like FSLR is bullish

O: viewtopic.php?f=2&t=746&p=106389#p106389

C-wave up or 3rd of something VERY bullish

ATM I am ST cautious, MT bullish LT (hmmm that's a tough one)

GL everyone