10/26/2013 Weekend Update

[Cobra]

The info this weekend is a little alarming. Smart Money record short, institutional accumulation distribution divergence persists and both AAII and II are very bullish.

The chart below show Smart Money record short, despite all the problem seems gone: No debt ceiling problem anymore and QE seems forever. Why those guy still want hedge?

[Cobra]

institutional buying and selling actions from stocktiming keeps showing divergence.

[Cobra]

AAII and II showing retailers as well as newsletter writers are very happy.

[DellGriffith]

My composite signal is going to flip to a sell next week, tuesday or wednesday most likely. I figured that sell would come which helped emboldened me to short. In hindsight, I should have just waited until I got that sell but the overbought readings I was looking at were too juicy at the time.

[Cobra]

Summary of the week's stock picks.
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=1095&p=145862#p145862

[Cobra]

Preview of the next week's stock picks.
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=1102&p=145864#p145864

[Al_Dente]

Bill Luby has a new VIX ratio: VXST/VIX which is the 9 day-to-30-day implied volatility.
Of course stockcharts doesn’t have the new VXST symbol yet but maybe some other platforms do.
http://vixandmore.blogspot.com/2013/10/ ... ratio.html

[Al_Dente]

Here’s an interesting thing about the China charts:
Even though China has been a bit wobbly this year (FXI is the ETF that roughly tracks the Hang Seng Index), it is the Halter Index which has been going gangbusters since May-ish (Halter is all Chinese ADRs which are deemed just a bit “safer” as they are listed on the U.S. exchanges via “American Depository Receipts” or ADRs. The ETF proxy for the Halter Index is PGJ).
This is weekly, showing Halter made new highs while Hang Seng didn’t. This means the ADRs are stronger than the Hong Kong Index.
[I use Baltic Dry for a measure of shipping, as China still gets most shipments of most everything, and Steel for an inkling of construction demand, as we don’t have a symbol for Iron Ore.]

Anyway, all are a bit overextended and correcting now, but when China resumes its uptrend, PGJ (where there is no volume) should be considered by China bulls instead of FXI (where all the volume is).
Here’s the daily chart: FXI with a PGJ overlay on the top panel, and a percentage-performance comparison on the bottom panel…. quite a difference…

China real time tracker
Click on the “indicators” at the left
http://graphics.wsj.com/econtracker-chi ... hp#ind=gdp

[taggard]

My composite signal is going to flip to a sell next week, tuesday or wednesday most likely. I figured that sell would come which helped emboldened me to short. In hindsight, I should have just waited until I got that sell but the overbought readings I was looking at were too juicy at the time.

if you have time and means could you post the whole elder chart you are referring to. and how does that relate to what you are saying here. i know nothing about elder stuff--i did look at the rap online--but if you have much experience you can likely accent the basic idea.

thanks for your time

[thanos]

Does anyone use price volume analysis to trade? Anyone know any free sites that don't just want money in the end? I've found a couple free site (beside cobras which is great). www.stockporn.blogspot.ca (stupid name but dude is good) www.swingtrader.tumblr.com (simple but infrequent signals). Thanks in advance for any suggestions.

[uempel]

Michael Mackenzie in the Weekend edition of the FT:

The love affair between equities and easy money is becoming too intimate, the Fed might chose to slow things down by shocking the markets by announcing a first round of tapering for December 2013 and not wait for March 2014.
The logic of this move would be that piercing an asset bubble now is far less harmful than if it would be in a few months time (remember what happened in 2000 after the Y2K liquidity glut was halted?).

Interesting for bears and bulls alike.

Pls google

Michael Makenzie Markets’ animal spirits need taming before a hard fall

and

Michael Makenzie US equities ride wave of easy money

[uempel]

My composite signal is going to flip to a sell next week, tuesday or wednesday most likely. I figured that sell would come which helped emboldened me to short. In hindsight, I should have just waited until I got that sell but the overbought readings I was looking at were too juicy at the time.

DellGriffith, a week ago you wrote that you had opened up short positions with all your cash (if I remember correctly). I presume you are aware that markets could go against you for many weeks to come. A surge up and above SPX 1775 is unlikely, but this bull has not been very bear-friendly these last few months.

[jefftrader]

Does anyone use price volume analysis to trade? Anyone know any free sites that don't just want money in the end? I've found a couple free site (beside cobras which is great). http://www.stockporn.blogspot.ca (stupid name but dude is good) http://www.swingtrader.tumblr.com (simple but infrequent signals). Thanks in advance for any suggestions.

Depends what you want. I like to position trade rather then day trade so for those type of trades

This guy is good but he doesn't make buy/sell suggestions and rather shows charts and leaves it to you to fill in the details
http://www.athrasher.com/

These two manage money and details their thinking. He is not always right but good overview
http://theshortsideoflong.blogspot.com/
http://humblestudentofthemarkets.blogspot.ca/

If anyone has favourites aside from Cobra I wouldn't mind hearing about them.

[uempel]

My composite signal is going to flip to a sell next week, tuesday or wednesday most likely. I figured that sell would come which helped emboldened me to short. In hindsight, I should have just waited until I got that sell but the overbought readings I was looking at were too juicy at the time.

DellGriffith, a week ago you wrote that you had opened up short positions with all your cash (if I remember correctly). I presume you are aware that markets could go against you for many weeks to come. A surge up and above SPX 1775 is unlikely, but this bull has not been very bear-friendly these last few months.

Long term chart is not satisfactory - shows a small breakout last week, but the move was too easy and too fast. Might be a trap, because prior to such important moves market tends to consolidate and correct. But these are exceptional times, the Fed pumping liquidity full throttle

[xfradnex]

2 Cents- We have a Sine-wave pattern since June with 3 peaks. It looks like we are completing the fourth. The last completed peak (3 -see arrow) overshoots the upper rails by a small amount. Currently, it looks like we have a rounded (domed shaped) peak like peak number 2 occurring. Based on this we would have only a very small amount of "up" in the tanks (around $0.4) before the sine wave continues its downward pattern. Note that RSI is weakening and volume is low.

Looking at the BBands, most sustained uptrends start with a narrow BB range at the start of a upward wave and then hug the top of the band. In our current state, we started with a wide band and only have hugged the upper BBand a short amount of time. Actuals are starting to peel away from the top of the BBand. I am guessing the current hill is like hill 2 (Start of Aug) since they both have dome shapes.

[xfradnex]

Apple reports Monday after hrs. Also to add to volatility see: http://www.deadline.com/2013/10/carl-ic ... se-shares/.

[uempel]

Looks as though bulls like to pause after a rise of +/- 35%

[Out of Bounds]

Adding to the arguments that we may be topping, snog appears to be rolling over. Pretty obvious in the chart.

[Al_Dente]

Middle panel: this year, when the ratio of new highs to new lows surged like it did on Thursday, it was followed by more bull (green arrows).
This is the fourth time this year that has happened.
HOWEVER, if you extend this chart back a few years, these surges sometimes signaled exhaustion… so … grain of salt.

[Al_Dente]

The info this weekend is a little alarming. Smart Money record short, institutional accumulation distribution divergence persists and both AAII and II are very bullish.
The chart below show Smart Money record short, despite all the problem seems gone: No debt ceiling problem anymore and QE seems forever. Why those guy still want hedge?

“”Smart Money record short””
Cobra: if you were a contrarian, would you surmise that these huge shorts have the potential to produce a monster squeeze?