01/18/2014 Weekend Update

[Cobra]

Just a start of new thread so that everyone can discuss here in the long weekend.

My usual weekly update doesn't show anything useful.

Maybe AAII is a little too optimistic but not extreme yet, so it's nothing.

Smart money covered a little bit. It's when it at extremes that really matters so now it doesn't tell us anything.

A little divergence show on institutional buying and selling chart (from stocktiming) but that doesn't justify any immediate actions.

[TWT]

$SPX: A Zig Zag should be done

[Al_Dente]

Ned Davis Research
The consumer in 2014
http://screencast.com/t/cn7ZabEGFc9d

[Cobra]

summary of the last week's stock picks: viewtopic.php?f=10&t=1178&p=152427#p152427

[Cobra]

Preview of the next week's stock picks: viewtopic.php?f=10&t=1185&p=152431#p152431

[Al_Dente]

AAPL
“...on Friday... customers were finally able to buy iPhones from China Mobile [who has more than 750 million customers]. At a store in Beijing, only about a dozen customers showed up to buy iPhones, despite the appearance of ... [CEO Tim Cook].... It was a far cry from the long lines that usually accompany a big introduction in the United States.”

“...price has been a big barrier .... The list price of 5,288 renminbi (about $870) ...is more than many people’s monthly salary..."
“...some users complained ... saying they could get smuggled versions from Hong Kong for less money.”

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/01/18/techn ... c=rss&_r=0

[gappy]

a.PNG

b.PNG

For fun only. Vote Cobra, glta.

[koolblue]

I have no idea how this market resolves itself except that my work shows that a major decline will happen sometime this year.. i just dont think its now, but caution is still in order. I have gone on record saying we will see 1900 first, but time will tell . the weekly chart is showing (imho) an unsustainable angle of accent and that never ends well. but to the immediate future, i think some surprises may be in store soon! i lean into the bullish camp, but bears have some good ammunition also! Anyway , heres a bone for the bulls and the bears..

[koolblue]

THIS WHOLE CORRECTION HAS BEEN A SIDEWAYS MISH-MASH SO FAR BUT AS SHOWN ABOVE IT SHOULD TIP ITS HAND NEXT WEEK... HERES A SHORTER TERM LOOK ( IN A SIDEWAYS MISH -MASH ITS NOT UNUSUAL TO GET MANY AVERAGE CROSSES THAT QUICKLY REVERSE, BUT WE WILL SEE IF THATS THE CASE SOON!)

[Al_Dente]

Sector performance, one week

Sector performance, one month

Stockcharts.com members can find all that here:
> Home page
> “Sector Summary” (underneath the “Today in the Market” chart)
> use the dropdown menu to select your preferred timeframe

[edit/add-on]
COMPLETE INDUSTRY LISTING OF S&P SECTORS
After you’ve identified which sector is strongest, drill-down here and find all the sub-sectors:
https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/industrysummary.html

Then you can find the component stocks in that sub-sector.
For example: Biotech has been strong. To see its component stocks: right-click on the name "biotechnology" and you get a listing (and charts) of all the stocks in that sub-sector.
Then use the dropdown menu to select your preferred timeframe.
[This is not a recommendation, just “how-to”]
https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/sect ... TOR_DJUSBT

[Al_Dente]

“The accuracy of equity research
Consistently wrong
Bear market or bull, analysts give bad advice”

[To bypass The Economist’s subscription block, click the first story here:]
https://www.google.com/search?hl=en&gl= ... 4tZhSxIils

[KeiZai]

Good evening, I see current PA as wave4 of wave5 the decline is similar to previous correction imo so I am long ES(1830) but only for one more high, from there we should see bigger correction


Pullback is too big to be a minor wave4 so I made a change in count here

Decline could be a double zig-zag

SPX with changed count

Good luck everyone

[DellGriffith]

Gold feels toppy here.

There's been a significant spike in bullish gold posts and articles in the past few days. Meanwhile, $gold tagged its upper BB a few days ago and now price is up against a resistance line. The time to have gotten excited as a gold bull would have been when price blasted below the lower BB back on dec 19th, not banked up against major resistance like now...

What's funny about dec 19th is that was not only when gold blasted below its lower BB, but it also was the day posts on gold message boards I watch hit zero. Gold articles on websites I observe also hit a low on that date. Its very like goldbugs to avert their eyes right when they are supposed to hit the buy button.

[BullBear52x]

I am staying on the bear camp and be watching how the reaction at 20DAM/Mid BB in coming days.

Points of interest:

Breadth are bearish:

[KeiZai]

I am staying on the bear camp and be watching how the reaction at 20DAM/Mid BB in coming days.

Points of interest:

The attachment 1.PNG is no longer available

Breadth are bearish:

The attachment 2.PNG is no longer available

The attachment 3.PNG is no longer available

Morning BB, yeah ST trend is so far down but the structure is very overlapping imo to be something uber bearish maybe one more marginal low then rally back up but who knows, if so I think I will add there, my line in the sand is 1827.5 same as yours Don't like to be on the otherside of you to be honest so let's see how this ends

[KeiZai]

I am staying on the bear camp and be watching how the reaction at 20DAM/Mid BB in coming days.

Points of interest:

The attachment 1.PNG is no longer available

Breadth are bearish:

The attachment 2.PNG is no longer available

The attachment 3.PNG is no longer available

Morning BB, yeah ST trend is so far down but the structure is very overlapping imo to be something uber bearish maybe one more marginal low then rally back up but who knows, if so I think I will add there, my line in the sand is 1827.5 same as yours Don't like to be on the otherside of you to be honest so let's see how this ends

The attachment SPX-200.png is no longer available

now this looks like ascending triangle

ES

[gappy]

Capture.PNG

"The decline in excess liquidity in the euro region, driven by a decision by southern European banks to repay LTRO cash early, is raising key short-term interest rates, threatening the supply and cost of credit to Europe's struggling small- and medium-sized companies. A near doubling of one-month Euribor and EONIA since late November poses a growing threat, even though the ECB has pledged to do whatever necessary, including further rate cuts, to defend the euro zone's recovery." - source Bloomberg.

[joegamma]

was friday the rsi divergence?http://stockcharts.com/public/1684859/c ... /219610381

(qe says probably not, 1 , 3, 1, and 3 bln this week)

[Royal Flush]

Here's a link to David Hickson's Sentient Trader Hurst multiple market analysis of price interaction with a 20 day FLD.
http://sentienttrader.com/hurst-trading ... uary-2014/
I wish everyone an enjoyable Martin Luther King Day.

[knock]

The overnight price action was interesting that the ascending triangle was broken but es turned immediately to upside, instead of following through to the downside.

I am staying on the bear camp and be watching how the reaction at 20DAM/Mid BB in coming days.

Points of interest:

1.PNG

Breadth are bearish:

2.PNG

3.PNG

Morning BB, yeah ST trend is so far down but the structure is very overlapping imo to be something uber bearish maybe one more marginal low then rally back up but who knows, if so I think I will add there, my line in the sand is 1827.5 same as yours Don't like to be on the otherside of you to be honest so let's see how this ends

SPX-200.png

now this looks like ascending triangle

ES

ES-as.png