I'm looking at 1/23/14 as a rough analog, where price consolidated under prior support and the 5dma, whereas today we consolidate below the 20dma ; Another difference being that on that day DNV was ~3x UPV, but today UPV is slightly ahead of DNV (favoring bulls) ; On the 23rd there was a late day run up to resistance that failed the next day ; That consolidation lasted 6 hours, this one is into it's 8th hour, and so I'd have to conclude the confusion is greater now
Hmmm, let's see, Crimea, Russia, China, Copper, Yellen, Yen, YIKES! It's event risk time! So, by Monday, everything's settled (but not really), and we gap up 20 points like on March 4th!
My problem, if I may share, is that I've mismanaged my account, and so if I allowed my short to be stopped out in the money on a move above the 20dma, then I couldn't re-enter a substantial position of any kind for 3 days (3 day rule is getting me here) (stop placed, but I'm hoping it doesn't trip) ; Price wise it wouldn't be without precedent if we formed a larger top, in the 45 point range that we are in now ; That would take at least 3 days, and I wouldn't want to carry a short back up to the top ; On the other hand, it would be just my luck to get stopped out and then miss a continuation lower for a larger gain ; Usually I only take half or third positions to preserve flexibility, but screwed up this time
I could bore you some more, but I'm going to quit now
Swing to Intermediate SPX Analysis - multiple time frame - Daily & 60 min time and price cycle analysis.
Usually trade SSO / SDS