03/14/2014 Live Update

[BullBear52x]

/ES fast pace is now bearish bias, but line in the sand is clear here, no new sell above here, let the bullish position runs. last chart today. Peace!

[MrMiyagi]

Market spike and metals turn due to John Kerry and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov talks in London, Komrad saying they have no plans to invade Eastern Ukraine (probably going in from West then...)

[Cobra]

members only update at 12:19 pm
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2014/03 ... ay-update/

[TWT]

$SPX: Too many options We don´t even know if a s/t bottom is in place yet Triangle ?

[fehro]

AAPL Daily ... a tad weak today.. losing 50d/20d again... weekly.. not so pretty atm

[uempel]

P&F charts show how important the 1840/50 area is for SPX and 9000/9100 for DAX. So far it looks as though these thresholds might not hold - but at the mom everything is so dependent on what happens in Crimea these next days

[uempel]

Miyagi, are there any SPX T-Bars which have not been met

[joeynickels]

$SPX: Too many options We don´t even know if a s/t bottom is in place yet Triangle ?

Excellent. This is how I picture the inside of everyone's head right now. No clear direction. Deer in the headlights moment for sure.

[TWT]

$SPX: Low probability bottoming pattern

[DumbMoney]

Market spike and metals turn due to John Kerry and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov talks in London, Komrad saying they have no plans to invade Eastern Ukraine (probably going in from West then...)

Hi,Mr Miyagi,I agree with you,maybe it will go like this...maybe...

[MrMiyagi]

Hi,Mr Miyagi,I agree with you,maybe it will go like this...maybe...

That does not seem too crazy.. Add North Korea to the mix and there you have it...

I see the "kid" in your picture is less depressed today...

[Cobra]

possible complex H&S bottom in the forming? lunch time, will be back.

[Al_Dente]

Today has been a “chop” day ALL DAY with a bear bias (nydec 1700), and no volume (roughly 1-to-1 volume ratio is 50/50)
What to expect on choppy days: choppiness
What do we have today: choppiness

XIV did not hold her double bottom, and is now backtesting it. The descending triangle target (blue) was triggered.
Translation: the futures-volatility traders are still dominant short the market

I’m sick and tired of XIV so I demoted it, and put “THE DOW LEADS” in its place
The thick pink lines at the left represent the Jan spy and dia highs (dia neg diverg)
The thick pink lines at the right are the mar dia highs, and as spy bounced up to new highs (pink circle), the dia was saying no no no neg….
Dia is now testing a potentially bounceable double bottom. A H&S can be drawn on the dia, and bla bla bla I’m still working on it…….

[Al_Dente]

lunch

[Al_Dente]

PAGING KENA "The Dome King"
Boss do u c anything here?

[rhight]

I'm looking at 1/23/14 as a rough analog, where price consolidated under prior support and the 5dma, whereas today we consolidate below the 20dma ; Another difference being that on that day DNV was ~3x UPV, but today UPV is slightly ahead of DNV (favoring bulls) ; On the 23rd there was a late day run up to resistance that failed the next day ; That consolidation lasted 6 hours, this one is into it's 8th hour, and so I'd have to conclude the confusion is greater now Hmmm, let's see, Crimea, Russia, China, Copper, Yellen, Yen, YIKES! It's event risk time! So, by Monday, everything's settled (but not really), and we gap up 20 points like on March 4th!

My problem, if I may share, is that I've mismanaged my account, and so if I allowed my short to be stopped out in the money on a move above the 20dma, then I couldn't re-enter a substantial position of any kind for 3 days (3 day rule is getting me here) (stop placed, but I'm hoping it doesn't trip) ; Price wise it wouldn't be without precedent if we formed a larger top, in the 45 point range that we are in now ; That would take at least 3 days, and I wouldn't want to carry a short back up to the top ; On the other hand, it would be just my luck to get stopped out and then miss a continuation lower for a larger gain ; Usually I only take half or third positions to preserve flexibility, but screwed up this time I could bore you some more, but I'm going to quit now

[rhight]

Hey, DNV just went ahead of UPV while I was typing, go Bears! I'm going to go eat lunch and forget I even play this game!

[uempel]

Miyagi, are there any SPX T-Bars which have not been met

[uempel]

Dr. F's worm suggests next support is 1830ish - same figure is shown by several other charts of mine.

[Cobra]

complex H&S bottom still possible. I'm neutral. 3rd touch on the low then we'll see breakdown, so bulls must hold here.