03/26/2014 Live Update

[Out of Bounds]

Vix did break trend of last few days. Maybe hesitating before assuming new upward stance?

[Cobra]

follow through needed to make possible double bottom. I'm neutral.

[MrMiyagi]

follow through needed to make possible double bottom. I'm neutral.

What is better for Bull Thursday, these levels or selloff to the close?

[tsf]

Where are we with POMO?

Looks like they wanted to take the less volatile route to make sure we have a good end of quarter.

Here's projection from the weekend (1876 at March 31):

Fri, Mar 21, 2014 Mon, Mar 24, 2014 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchases 02/15/2036 - 02/15/2044 $1.00 - $1.25 billion --> -6 -> 1860
Mon, Mar 24, 2014 Tue, Mar 25, 2014 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchases 11/15/2024 - 02/15/2031 $0.50 - $0.75 billion --> -10 -> 1850
Tue, Mar 25, 2014 Wed, Mar 26, 2014 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchases 02/15/2036 - 02/15/2044 $1.00 - $1.25 billion -> -6 -> 1844
Wed, Mar 26, 2014 Thu, Mar 27, 2014 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchases 05/15/2021 - 02/15/2024 $2.25 - $2.75 billion -> +10 -> 1854
Thu, Mar 27, 2014 Fri, Mar 28, 2014 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchases 12/31/2018 - 11/30/2019 $3.75 - $4.50 billion --> +28 -> 1882
Fri, Mar 28, 2014 Mon, Mar 31, 2014 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchases 02/15/2036 - 02/15/2044 $1.00 - $1.25 billion -> -6 -> 1876

$1.8 billion / day needed to hold the market even.

From last Friday, we started at 1866. Yesterday (tuesday), we ended at appr 1866. So 3.6 billion POMO used up so far.

I'm looking at the end date above and max POMO amount. That would mean as of yesterday they used up thru Wed, and .4 billion from Thursday. That leaves appr 8 billion over the next 4 days.

They can easily hold the market here thru Monday. However, just know if they goose it above 1876, it's coming back down.

Projection is 1876 for March 31, and appr 1790 for End of April - all based on POMO.

.

flumanchu's forecasts of direction have been pretty good. Please keep us updated. Thank you.

[gappy]

PENNY STOCK ALERT> First MSM mention of this company's (shut down) stock since I got some three years ago. This is a pharma lotto ticket with patents. Not advised unless you have a dime to burn, but at a 6 million cap and medico-pot craze, well you just never know, unless ownership cashes in without rewarding share holders. Israeli company. My cost basis is a nickel/share and looking for another double or bust.

Capture.PNG

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/plant-pre ... 08984.html

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[Cobra]

members only update at 3:46 pm
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2014/03 ... ay-update/

[fehro]

INDEX dailies... RUT looses it's 50d.. TLT possible break out, VIX trying late to pop over 50d, 200d

[Cobra]

no follow through to make possible double bottom. here's bear target on breakdown. not sure as 13 min to close now.

[Cobra]

well, guess that's it for today. tomorrow Thursday has been very very bull friendly. thank you guys, I'll see you tomorrow.

before the close, please take a little time to vote for me, thanks. https://stockcharts.com/public/1684859/tenpp

[Out of Bounds]

C OMG Citi

[ALdaytrade]

VIX daily.. a tad weak.. tagged 200d but not moving above the MA's ..... yet..

I do not trust $VIX, here only going to the mid point of the bollinger band.

Just as we had a head and shoulder on the 30 minute chart, this morning, we now have an inverted head and shoulders on the 30 minute chart, this afternoon.

No more inverted head and shoulder, but maybe a double bottom, here?

[Nrsimha]

Yep.

EPIC FAIL

[Out of Bounds]

VIX daily.. a tad weak.. tagged 200d but not moving above the MA's ..... yet..

I do not trust $VIX, here only going to the mid point of the bollinger band.

Just as we had a head and shoulder on the 30 minute chart, this morning, we now have an inverted head and shoulders on the 30 minute chart, this afternoon.

No more inverted head and shoulder, but maybe a double bottom, here?

How i see it.

[MrMiyagi]

C OMG Citi

Federal Reserve rejects Citi plan for dividends or share buybacks.

[Nrsimha]

Bears may be "over", but bulls are losing money.

[MrMiyagi]

Bears may be "over", but bulls are losing money.

Over the Moon, that's what they are.

Further weakness should be anticipated, only happy smiley news from Barry and the Gang would make it turn.

[BullBear52x]

C OMG Citi

A reminder of un-fundamental support.

[Nrsimha]

C OMG Citi

A reminder of un-fundamental support.

This could cause a run on the banks. No?

[flumanchu]

Here's projection from the weekend (1876 at March 31):

Fri, Mar 21, 2014 Mon, Mar 24, 2014 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchases 02/15/2036 - 02/15/2044 $1.00 - $1.25 billion --> -6 -> 1860
Mon, Mar 24, 2014 Tue, Mar 25, 2014 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchases 11/15/2024 - 02/15/2031 $0.50 - $0.75 billion --> -10 -> 1850
Tue, Mar 25, 2014 Wed, Mar 26, 2014 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchases 02/15/2036 - 02/15/2044 $1.00 - $1.25 billion -> -6 -> 1844
Wed, Mar 26, 2014 Thu, Mar 27, 2014 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchases 05/15/2021 - 02/15/2024 $2.25 - $2.75 billion -> +10 -> 1854
Thu, Mar 27, 2014 Fri, Mar 28, 2014 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchases 12/31/2018 - 11/30/2019 $3.75 - $4.50 billion --> +28 -> 1882
Fri, Mar 28, 2014 Mon, Mar 31, 2014 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchases 02/15/2036 - 02/15/2044 $1.00 - $1.25 billion -> -6 -> 1876

$1.8 billion / day needed to hold the market even.

From last Friday, we started at 1866.
Today, we ended at 1852 or -14 points (1.4 billion).

So, 1.8 (needed to keep it even) * 3 days = 5.4 billion to hold market even.
5.4 - 1.4 billion (-14 points) = 4.0 billion
=> 4.0 billion used up so far from above.
That would get us thru Wed and .75 from Thur.

Here's projection based on what's been used so far:

That leaves Thur with $2.0 billion -> projection would be 1854
and Fri with $4.5 billion -> projection would be 1882
and Mon with $1.25 billion. -> projection would be 1876

Tomorrow could be very interesting.

If they do not use the Thur POMO and let this fall further tomorrow, then more POMO would be available for Fri/Mon. So then Fri/Mon should be up big (there's enough POMO to get to 1876 by Monday).


Projection is 1876 for March 31, and appr 1790 for End of April - all based on POMO.


.

[Nrsimha]

Here's projection from the weekend (1876 at March 31):

Fri, Mar 21, 2014 Mon, Mar 24, 2014 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchases 02/15/2036 - 02/15/2044 $1.00 - $1.25 billion --> -6 -> 1860
Mon, Mar 24, 2014 Tue, Mar 25, 2014 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchases 11/15/2024 - 02/15/2031 $0.50 - $0.75 billion --> -10 -> 1850
Tue, Mar 25, 2014 Wed, Mar 26, 2014 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchases 02/15/2036 - 02/15/2044 $1.00 - $1.25 billion -> -6 -> 1844
Wed, Mar 26, 2014 Thu, Mar 27, 2014 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchases 05/15/2021 - 02/15/2024 $2.25 - $2.75 billion -> +10 -> 1854
Thu, Mar 27, 2014 Fri, Mar 28, 2014 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchases 12/31/2018 - 11/30/2019 $3.75 - $4.50 billion --> +28 -> 1882
Fri, Mar 28, 2014 Mon, Mar 31, 2014 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchases 02/15/2036 - 02/15/2044 $1.00 - $1.25 billion -> -6 -> 1876

$1.8 billion / day needed to hold the market even.

From last Friday, we started at 1866.
Today, we ended at 1852 or -14 points (1.4 billion).

So, 1.8 (needed to keep it even) * 3 days = 5.4 billion to hold market even.
5.4 - 1.4 billion (-14 points) = 4.0 billion
=> 4.0 billion used up so far from above.
That would get us thru Wed and .75 from Thur.

Here's projection based on what's been used so far:

That leaves Thur with $2.0 billion -> projection would be 1854
and Fri with $4.5 billion -> projection would be 1882
and Mon with $1.25 billion. -> projection would be 1876

Tomorrow could be very interesting.

If they do not use the Thur POMO and let this fall further tomorrow, then more POMO would be available for Fri/Mon. So then Fri/Mon should be up big (there's enough POMO to get to 1876 by Monday).


Projection is 1876 for March 31, and appr 1790 for End of April - all based on POMO.


.

<< So, 1.8 (needed to keep it even) * 3 days = 5.4 billion to hold market even. >>

That is the saddest and most pathetic thing that I've ever heard.