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Wait for 10% pullback and then BuyAl_Dente wrote:Hedge funds are near-record leveraged long
“…once the market starts to retreat, a potential rush by hedge funds to cut positions would strongly amplify the sell-off.”
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/04/ ... YP20140404
Related: http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/20 ... ill-lynch/xfradnex wrote:Wait for 10% pullback and then BuyAl_Dente wrote:Hedge funds are near-record leveraged long
“…once the market starts to retreat, a potential rush by hedge funds to cut positions would strongly amplify the sell-off.”
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/04/ ... YP20140404
flumanchu wrote:.
WARNING --> Some people may construe this post as Conspiracy Related and might be offended. If so, sorry about that.
Here's POMO Projection for the next week:
Day date = = = = = = PROJECTION = = = = = = High Proj
Fri 4/11 = = = = = = 1818 = = = = = = 1848
Mon 4/14 = = = = = = 1822 = = = = = = 1852
Tue 4/15 = = = = = = 1814 = = = = = = 1844
Wed 4/16 = = = = = = 1816 = = = = = = 1846
Thu 4/17 = = = = = = 1809 = = = = = = 1839
Fri Good Friday = = = = = = 1809 = = = = = = 1839
Mon 4/21 = = = = = = 1791 = = = = = = 1821
Note - The High Proj is simply 30 points more than the Projected amount. Typically, the market doesn't get more than 30 points more than the Projected amount. If the market is closer to the High Proj amt, then funds are being borrowed from the future POMO amounts which will eventually cause a greater reaction.
Markets are closed on Friday and NO POMO from Thur 4/17 until Tue (4/21) - meaning the market will want to descend down toward 1791 in this timeframe. They might try to do this as part of OPEX.
April End of Month Projection is 1792.
Observation - This is just something I've noticed - I guess it's all about momentum:
----> If the market closes at a HIGH on OPEX day, the market normally continues higher for at least the next couple of weeks.
----> If the market closes at a LOW on OPEX day, the market normally continues lower for at least the next couple of weeks.
ok - what about the whole Fed Conspiracy stuff.
Here's the deal - I have the utmost respect for the FED. As I've said before, a Strong Market means a Strong USA. If the FED had not acted, the USA would have been vulnerable for some type of action.
So, saying that, I believe in the FED, and the power they have. There's a reason they say 'Don't fight the FED'.
So, how does this relate to POMO? The Fed has been deploying all kinds of extreme measures to help the economy. Through all the interest rate cuts, etc. the market still needed more money in order to come out of the abyss. That's where POMO comes in.
The example is that the Fed is piloting the market - just like flying a plane (btw I got my Private Pilot License back in 2000 and so there's the reason for the analogy). All the Fed has done (except POMO) was not enough to move the market up - just not enough thrust, there's still too much drag. By using POMO, the market has additional thrust. However, with so much drag, it takes a lot of thrust (x amt of POMO) just to keep the plane in level flight (market even). If more than x is used, then the market advances. If less than x, then the market declines.
So, the market naturally wants to go down to some equillibrium point without POMO. As long as x amt / month is deployed, the market stays even. If more than that, then the market goes up, if less the market goes down.
Pretend your flying a plane, there's a certain amount of thrust needed to keep the plane level. If you pull back on the throttle (not the stick), the plane will descend in a glide, if you increase the throttle, there's normally more than enough thrust to enable the plane to ascend. Each month, there's a certain amount of thrust (POMO) that's being used. Keep in mind though, there's only so much thrust that can be used in the month.
Extra thrust can be used some days, or withheld on some days. But, in the end, it all has to even out. So, extra POMO can be used on some days to just keep the market even, or more to push the market up - or withheld to be aved and used on future days, in which case drag causes the market to go down. At this point, the FED uses the lack of POMO as a brake. Just like on most small planes, there is no real brake in the air / flight. Thrust, lack of thrust, and gravity / drag pretty much does the rest (fyi slips and other measures can be used, but not pertinent in this analogy).
Hope this helps! Sorry for the rambling. If you don't like it, I'll edit and remove after this weekend.
Good luck to all!
.
Hi X: thanksxfradnex wrote: Related: http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/20 ... ill-lynch/
Hi Flumanchu,flumanchu wrote:.
WARNING --> Some people may construe this post as Conspiracy Related and might be offended. If so, sorry about that.
Good luck to all!
.
what is your projection for the month of may and june ?flumanchu wrote:.
WARNING --> Some people may construe this post as Conspiracy Related and might be offended. If so, sorry about that.
Here's POMO Projection for the next week:
Day date = = = = = = PROJECTION = = = = = = High Proj
Fri 4/11 = = = = = = 1818 = = = = = = 1848
Mon 4/14 = = = = = = 1822 = = = = = = 1852
Tue 4/15 = = = = = = 1814 = = = = = = 1844
Wed 4/16 = = = = = = 1816 = = = = = = 1846
Thu 4/17 = = = = = = 1809 = = = = = = 1839
Fri Good Friday = = = = = = 1809 = = = = = = 1839
Mon 4/21 = = = = = = 1791 = = = = = = 1821
Note - The High Proj is simply 30 points more than the Projected amount. Typically, the market doesn't get more than 30 points more than the Projected amount. If the market is closer to the High Proj amt, then funds are being borrowed from the future POMO amounts which will eventually cause a greater reaction.
Markets are closed on Friday and NO POMO from Thur 4/17 until Tue (4/21) - meaning the market will want to descend down toward 1791 in this timeframe. They might try to do this as part of OPEX.
April End of Month Projection is 1792.
Observation - This is just something I've noticed - I guess it's all about momentum:
----> If the market closes at a HIGH on OPEX day, the market normally continues higher for at least the next couple of weeks.
----> If the market closes at a LOW on OPEX day, the market normally continues lower for at least the next couple of weeks.
ok - what about the whole Fed Conspiracy stuff.
Here's the deal - I have the utmost respect for the FED. As I've said before, a Strong Market means a Strong USA. If the FED had not acted, the USA would have been vulnerable for some type of action.
So, saying that, I believe in the FED, and the power they have. There's a reason they say 'Don't fight the FED'.
So, how does this relate to POMO? The Fed has been deploying all kinds of extreme measures to help the economy. Through all the interest rate cuts, etc. the market still needed more money in order to come out of the abyss. That's where POMO comes in.
The example is that the Fed is piloting the market - just like flying a plane (btw I got my Private Pilot License back in 2000 and so there's the reason for the analogy). All the Fed has done (except POMO) was not enough to move the market up - just not enough thrust, there's still too much drag. By using POMO, the market has additional thrust. However, with so much drag, it takes a lot of thrust (x amt of POMO) just to keep the plane in level flight (market even). If more than x is used, then the market advances. If less than x, then the market declines.
So, the market naturally wants to go down to some equillibrium point without POMO. As long as x amt / month is deployed, the market stays even. If more than that, then the market goes up, if less the market goes down.
Pretend your flying a plane, there's a certain amount of thrust needed to keep the plane level. If you pull back on the throttle (not the stick), the plane will descend in a glide, if you increase the throttle, there's normally more than enough thrust to enable the plane to ascend. Each month, there's a certain amount of thrust (POMO) that's being used. Keep in mind though, there's only so much thrust that can be used in the month.
Extra thrust can be used some days, or withheld on some days. But, in the end, it all has to even out. So, extra POMO can be used on some days to just keep the market even, or more to push the market up - or withheld to be aved and used on future days, in which case drag causes the market to go down. At this point, the FED uses the lack of POMO as a brake. Just like on most small planes, there is no real brake in the air / flight. Thrust, lack of thrust, and gravity / drag pretty much does the rest (fyi slips and other measures can be used, but not pertinent in this analogy).
Hope this helps! Sorry for the rambling. If you don't like it, I'll edit and remove after this weekend.
Good luck to all!
.
Thanks! You're opinion is really all that matters. I appreciate you having this board and all who contribute. The content is by far the best I've seen.Cobra wrote:flumanchu wrote:.
WARNING --> Some people may construe this post as Conspiracy Related and might be offended. If so, sorry about that.
Here's POMO Projection for the next week:
Day date = = = = = = PROJECTION = = = = = = High Proj
Fri 4/11 = = = = = = 1818 = = = = = = 1848
Mon 4/14 = = = = = = 1822 = = = = = = 1852
Tue 4/15 = = = = = = 1814 = = = = = = 1844
Wed 4/16 = = = = = = 1816 = = = = = = 1846
Thu 4/17 = = = = = = 1809 = = = = = = 1839
Fri Good Friday = = = = = = 1809 = = = = = = 1839
Mon 4/21 = = = = = = 1791 = = = = = = 1821
Note - The High Proj is simply 30 points more than the Projected amount. Typically, the market doesn't get more than 30 points more than the Projected amount. If the market is closer to the High Proj amt, then funds are being borrowed from the future POMO amounts which will eventually cause a greater reaction.
Markets are closed on Friday and NO POMO from Thur 4/17 until Tue (4/21) - meaning the market will want to descend down toward 1791 in this timeframe. They might try to do this as part of OPEX.
April End of Month Projection is 1792.
Observation - This is just something I've noticed - I guess it's all about momentum:
----> If the market closes at a HIGH on OPEX day, the market normally continues higher for at least the next couple of weeks.
----> If the market closes at a LOW on OPEX day, the market normally continues lower for at least the next couple of weeks.
ok - what about the whole Fed Conspiracy stuff.
Here's the deal - I have the utmost respect for the FED. As I've said before, a Strong Market means a Strong USA. If the FED had not acted, the USA would have been vulnerable for some type of action.
So, saying that, I believe in the FED, and the power they have. There's a reason they say 'Don't fight the FED'.
So, how does this relate to POMO? The Fed has been deploying all kinds of extreme measures to help the economy. Through all the interest rate cuts, etc. the market still needed more money in order to come out of the abyss. That's where POMO comes in.
The example is that the Fed is piloting the market - just like flying a plane (btw I got my Private Pilot License back in 2000 and so there's the reason for the analogy). All the Fed has done (except POMO) was not enough to move the market up - just not enough thrust, there's still too much drag. By using POMO, the market has additional thrust. However, with so much drag, it takes a lot of thrust (x amt of POMO) just to keep the plane in level flight (market even). If more than x is used, then the market advances. If less than x, then the market declines.
So, the market naturally wants to go down to some equillibrium point without POMO. As long as x amt / month is deployed, the market stays even. If more than that, then the market goes up, if less the market goes down.
Pretend your flying a plane, there's a certain amount of thrust needed to keep the plane level. If you pull back on the throttle (not the stick), the plane will descend in a glide, if you increase the throttle, there's normally more than enough thrust to enable the plane to ascend. Each month, there's a certain amount of thrust (POMO) that's being used. Keep in mind though, there's only so much thrust that can be used in the month.
Extra thrust can be used some days, or withheld on some days. But, in the end, it all has to even out. So, extra POMO can be used on some days to just keep the market even, or more to push the market up - or withheld to be aved and used on future days, in which case drag causes the market to go down. At this point, the FED uses the lack of POMO as a brake. Just like on most small planes, there is no real brake in the air / flight. Thrust, lack of thrust, and gravity / drag pretty much does the rest (fyi slips and other measures can be used, but not pertinent in this analogy).
Hope this helps! Sorry for the rambling. If you don't like it, I'll edit and remove after this weekend.
Good luck to all!
.
thank you, I like it and I do believe POMO is the major force to keep this market float. Keep up good work!
Kind of difficult to project at this point. The next Fed meeting is end of this month (April 29?). If they keep it at $30 billion for May, then I see the $SPX dropping about 80 points by end of May, to around 1710. Won't know exactly until they publish next month's schedule (end of this month also).Zane wrote:what is your projection for the month of may and june ?flumanchu wrote:.
.