07/03/2014 Live Update

[Royal Flush]

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Triangle breakout, targeting 1975.

Nice call on the 1975 target Cobra, you got my vote.

[Cobra]

range. wait either breakout or breakdown first.

[Harapa]

I hope you didn't miss the grand bull run of your life time.

[Cobra]

Cobra, the pattern on NFP days used to be open high, go lower or open lower, go higher all day. Is this pattern still working?

I don't know. The open high go lower seems not working recently because market now is pretty sure that the rate will remain exceptionally low for long long time.

[Cobra]

If you're StockCharts member, please do me a little favor by "vote" and the most importantly "follow" my public chart list HERE. You need "follow" only once but vote can be done everyday, so whenever you have time, please vote for me, thanks! If you're not StockCharts member, you can also help boosting my rank by clicking the link once everyday.

• Please, again, all my calls in the daily live update is for intra-day only, they're absolutely invalid when the closing bell rings. If you're interested in the forecast for days and weeks, Please subscribe my Daily Market Report.

• Personal attack on any board members won't be tolerated. Please limit your topic to trade related only.

• Please no direct link to your personal web site or blog. You must post rich contents here. You can, however, put link to your personal web site or blog as your signature.

• I'm very busy during the trading hour, so your question posted on board might not be answered. For a guaranteed answer to your question please send email to info@cobrasmarketview.com.

========================================================================================================================================================================

Triangle breakout, targeting 1975.

Nice call on the 1975 target Cobra, you got my vote.

When I put 1975, it was almost there, so it's no use. besides, looks like it won't be stopped at 1975.

[soku]

When I put 1975, it was almost there, so it's no use. besides, looks like it won't be stopped at 1975.

i put 1985. i am in slightly better situation. nowadays we compare whose number is bigger.
i still believe there will be a time all dumb money get wiped

[daytradingES]

Equity Products
Thursday, July 3
1215 CT / 1315 ET / 1715 UTC –Early close
1700 CT / 1800 ET / 2200 UTC –Regular open for trade date Monday, July 7*
Friday, July 4
1200 CT / 1300 ET / 1700 UTC – Early close (Day & GTD order elimination)
Sunday, July 6
1700 CT / 1800 ET / 2200 UTC –Regular open for trade date Monday, July 7
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another 4 pter?

[uempel]

Update:

[Al_Dente]

[uempel]

Update - good short term support at 1972

[soku]

i need to leave earlier today. here is something incase you interested in long weekend project.

Code: Select all

# Laguerre RSI with ASC v3r3
#
# Laguerre RSI from "Cybernetic Analysis for Stocks and Futures" by Ehlers
# chapter 14, page 216
#
# Created/Modified Portions Copyright (c) 2011 by CPH Consulting LLC
# All rights reserved

########################################################################
# Modified by GD July 1, 2014 
# Add ASC smooth factor into indicator  
# Adjust Gamma to see different results. Ehlers recommended 0.5. Typical range is 0.65 to 0.85 to fit different time frames. 
########################################################################

#

declare lower;

input fastGamma = 0.50;
input SlowGamma = 0.70;
input price = close;
input displace = 0;
input SmoothType = {default Hull, Simple, Exponential, Weighted, Variable};
input SmoothLength = 3;
input Overbot = 0.80;
input Oversold = 0.20;

rec data;

switch (SmoothType) {
case Simple:
    data = compoundValue(1, Average(price[-displace], SmoothLength), price);
case Exponential:
    data = compoundValue(1, ExpAverage(price[-displace], SmoothLength), price);
case Weighted:
    data = compoundValue(1, wma(price[-displace], SmoothLength), price);
Case Hull:
    data = compoundValue(1, hullMovingAvg(price[-displace], SmoothLength), price);
case variable:
    data = VariableMA(price=price, length=SmoothLength);
}



def LagP = data;

rec L0 = (1-SlowGamma)*LagP + SlowGamma*L0[1];
rec L1 = -1*SlowGamma*L0 + L0[1] + SlowGamma*L1[1];
rec L2 = -1*SlowGamma*L1 + L1[1] + SlowGamma*L2[1];
rec L3 = -1*SlowGamma*L2 + L2[1] + SlowGamma*L3[1];

def CU1 = if L0>= L1 then L0 - L1 else 0;
def CU2 = if L1>=L2 then CU1 + L1 - L2 else CU1;
def CU = if L2>=L3 then CU2 + L2 - L3 else CU2;

def CD1 = if L0 >= L1 then 0 else L1 - L0;
def CD2 = if L1 >= L2 then CD1 else CD1 + L2 - L1;
def CD = if L2 >= L3 then CD2 else CD2 + L3 - L2;

plot ASCRSI = if CU + CD != 0 then CU / (CU+CD) else 0;
ASCRSI.setDefaultColor(color.yellow);
ASCRSI.setLineWeight(2);

rec fastL0 = (1-fastGamma)*close + fastGamma*fastL0[1];
rec fastL1 = -1*fastGamma*fastL0 + fastL0[1] + fastGamma*fastL1[1];
rec fastL2 = -1*fastGamma*fastL1 + fastL1[1] + fastGamma*fastL2[1];
rec fastL3 = -1*fastGamma*fastL2 + fastL2[1] + fastGamma*fastL3[1];

def fastCU1 = if fastL0 >= fastL1 then fastL0 - fastL1 else 0;
def fastCU2 = if fastL1 >= fastL2 then fastCU1 + fastL1 - fastL2 else fastCU1;
def fastCU = if fastL2 >= fastL3 then fastCU2 + fastL2 - fastL3 else fastCU2;

def fastCD1 = if fastL0 >= fastL1 then 0 else fastL1 - fastL0;
def fastCD2 = if fastL1 >= fastL2 then fastCD1 else fastCD1 + fastL2 - fastL1;
def fastCD = if fastL2 >= fastL3 then fastCD2 else fastCD2 + fastL3 - fastL2;

plot LagRSI = if fastCU + fastCD != 0 then fastCU / (fastCU+fastCD) else 0;

LagRSI.setStyle(curve.short_dash);
LagRSI.setDefaultColor(color.magenta);

plot OS = oversold;
OS.setDefaultColor(color.dark_gray);
plot OB = overbot;
OB.setDefaultColor(color.dark_gray);

plot Mode         = if ASCRSI >= overbot then overbot else if ASCRSI <= oversold then oversold else Double.NaN;
Mode.SetDefaultColor(Color.LIGHT_GRAY);
Mode.AssignValueColor(if ASCRSI >=overbot then Color.GREEN else Color.RED);
Mode.SetLineWeight(2);
Mode.SetPaintingStrategy(PaintingStrategy.POINTS);
Mode.SetStyle(Curve.POINTS);

def booleanUpB = ASCRSI crosses above oversold;
plot signalUpB = if booleanUpB then .1 else double.NaN; 
signalUpB.SetPaintingStrategy(PaintingStrategy.ARROW_UP);
signalUpB.setdefaultcolor(color.green);
signalUpB.SetLineWeight(2);
signalUpB.hideBubble();

def booleanDownB = ASCRSI crosses below overbot;
plot signalDownB = if booleanDownB then .9 else double.NaN; 
signalDownB.SetPaintingStrategy(PaintingStrategy.ARROW_DOWN);
signalDownB.assignValueColor(color.red);
signalDownB.setLineWeight(2);
signalDownB.hideBubble();

def booleanUpA = LagRSI crosses above oversold;
plot signalUpA = if booleanUpA then oversold else double.NaN; 
signalUpA.SetPaintingStrategy(PaintingStrategy.ARROW_UP);
signalUpA.setdefaultcolor(color.dark_green);
#signalUp.SetLineWeight(2);
signalUpA.hideBubble();

def booleanDownA = LagRSI crosses below overbot;
plot signalDownA = if booleanDownA then overbot else double.NaN; 
signalDownA.SetPaintingStrategy(PaintingStrategy.ARROW_DOWN);
signalDownA.assignValueColor(color.dark_red);
#signalDown.setLineWeight(2);
signalDownA.hideBubble();

[soku]

Ehlers Laguerre Relative Strength Index

Ehlers Laguerre Relative Strength Index
The Laguerre Relative Strength Index was introduced by John Ehlers in his book "Cybernetic Analysis for Stocks and Futures". It uses a 4-Element Laguerre filter to provide a "time warp" such that the low frequency components are delayed much more than the high frequency components. This enables much smoother filters to be created using shorter amounts of data.

Interpretation

A typical use of the Laguerre RSI is to buy after the line crosses back over the 20% level and sell after the price crosses back down through the 80% level.

Implementation

The Price and Damping Factor inputs have been parameterized to allow the user full customization of this indicator. The only parameter to optimize is a damping gamma factor, usually 0.5 to 0.85, to best suit the trade instrument's data. Please note: This implementation of the Laguerre RSI has been normalized to a scale of 0-100 rather than the original 0-1 scale.

[Royal Flush]

When I put 1975, it was almost there, so it's no use. besides, looks like it won't be stopped at 1975.

i put 1985. i am in slightly better situation. nowadays we compare whose number is bigger.
i still believe there will be a time all dumb money get wiped

I agree but one should remember that the dumb money are now the central banks of the world which have already dumped 29 trillion in the markets and have very deep pockets

[Cobra]

breakout. tinted area the text book target.

[uempel]

1983 looks like resistance on this long term daily (which is not very precise).

[uempel]

Cobra, what's your volume analysis, on both SPY and SPX Everybody was talking about a non-event today due to everybody off early. I guess everybody was mistaken

[uempel]

Bye guys, happy 4th of July ...

[Xian]

Bye guys, happy 4th of July ...

uio.png

Have a great weekend, Uempel— Thanks for everything.

[Denali92]

Just posted a little look at what happened post employment when SPY RSI is above 60 on the day before employment and we have an unfilled up gap.

http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2014/07 ... ay-update/

Found the results to be somewhat surprising---

-D

[MrMiyagi]

!!! POWER (HALF) HOUR !!!