08/18/2014 Live Update

[Mr. BachNut]

No position.
Long was stopped for profit on Friday.
Short was stopped this morning for loss.

My summation signal is up.
My composite trend signal turned neutral at the open on Friday. It will turn up today.

Friday was a good example of my Market moves big when you are unavailable principle.
While I was traveling, a somewhat bullish turn in my trend signal arrived, a downdraft took out my long and I was not at my desk to manage short.
Fudge. Not sure I would have done anything different except avoid travel...
Campaign ended at a net loss, but the long saved me from serious blood letting.

The late July downtrend was substantially over by the time it confirmed.
The rally looked corrective until late last week.
The pile of failed bear moves grows some more.
I should be long here with a stop under Friday's low, but don't have the asymmetry to take a position here.
There are still a number of technical shortcomings to the current up move. So, it may not be all fun and games ahead.
I am particularly curious about trade after the VIX expiration Wednesday morning.

[Al_Dente]

INDEX dailies... COMPQ / NDX new yearly highs

just saw this thanks fehro

[Cobra]

ES rarely has unfilled gap, so usually the gap will be filled sometimes later. For now, except the gap, I don't see anything wrong.

Its not ES but SPY can leave unfilled gaps and never look back when it blasts out of corrections. There are gaps on Feb 7th, 2014 and April 16th, 2014 that never filled.

SPY of course can leave gaps forever. ES is trading 24/5, so rarely leaves gap, but it's just a general idea, bulls nowadays have many many many many exceptions, so I won't count on gap fill anyway.

[Cobra]

consolidation, bias still up.

[Cobra]

members only update at 11:47 am
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2014/08 ... ay-update/

[Al_Dente]

what is that 5min bar on QQQ please?

[MrMiyagi]

what is that 5min bar on QQQ please?

qqq

[tsf]

what is that 5min bar on QQQ please?

3491.png

There is also a p-bar for AAPL

[MrMiyagi]

There is also a p-bar for AAPL

Down to 97.98$ at the exact same time.

[Al_Dente]

thanks

[taggard]

note on gaps/rules (for newbies mostly)

Watch which side of the trend the gap is on.

Watch where in the (1) longer primary trend direction the gap is (2) where in the shorter secondary direction trend the gap is. (example--we are in both a primary uptrend and a secondary up trend. so gap to the upside are more likely to get filled until this changes.

Watch were you are in the trend (time wise). So the later in the trend--the more caution in both directions. Caution to me means listening--and fluidity not (1) not playing (2) assuming a reversal. (example the secondary trend here is a bit out there--this means today's gap is "more likely" to get filled as compared to the 8-13 gap. so in the early to middle part of reversals "less likely" to get filled right off in any case (than later in the slower momentum area.

Number of gaps in a row--when you start seeing 3+ gaps in a row directionally--it's time to listen harder.

All of this stuff is of course conditional. rather than trading "rules" think guidelines or general market habits. a point was made here a week or so ago that (1) you followed the rules. (2) situations change and thus rules become invalid or at least far less useful. (3) at that point one changes the rules.

In my opinion this idea is good as far as it goes. But what is troubling is that--esp for newbies--it doesn't focus on the idea how you know what and when. Rules here are seen as a trend--a trend continues till it ends. so you just wait for the rules to fail and then change them? Well ok--fair enough. But how many failures do you allow? and so on. Each of us needs to find some way of thinking about this that makes sense to them.

My approach (which is not being promoted just referenced) is to not really take rules very seriously at all. and focus on watching the action. The idea being that we seem to be stuck watching the action in any case--so in that context the rules are less valuable as abstractions.

Further (again newbies key idea) all rules have situational validity given your experience method and of course aesthetics (which is how everything is chosen as opposed to some strange sense of abstract logic).

Example--when you are starting out you can get thrashed easily by the action--so maybe you start using fixed stops. (stops placed at the time the order is). Later you evolve beyond this (usually after losing a lot of money using fixed stops). or where the stop is placed--the typical example is just over the last high or under the last low--boom you lose a lot doing this in many markets. so the stop can be placed far earlier or later (then the "correct point") as you find different ways to see the action. or you can not use a fixed stop which becomes much more comfortable (and safe) with experience.

bottom line is=rules are quite often going to dissolve at some point. this is either due to market conditions--or you changing in your approach. Given this observation really listening to and sticking to the action is the key to the change. you cannot second guess your rule every-time--yet you must develop a sense of "not leaning too much" on the rule. don't let the rules do the heavy lifting (or they will get burnt out and leave). Rules can be thought of as "useful illusions" or "situationally vaild" but absolute? they say the only absolute is change and change eats rules for lunch.

as usual only my opinion and good luck to all.

[Al_Dente]

60min update
This is our first negative divergence on relative strength RSI-14

[tsf]

Thank you, taggard. Your posts are always so thoughtful and valuable.

note on gaps/rules (for newbies mostly)

Watch which side of the trend the gap is on.

Watch where in the (1) longer primary trend direction the gap is (2) where in the shorter secondary direction trend the gap is. (example--we are in both a primary uptrend and a secondary up trend. so gap to the upside are more likely to get filled until this changes.

Watch were you are in the trend (time wise). So the later in the trend--the more caution in both directions. Caution to me means listening--and fluidity not (1) not playing (2) assuming a reversal. (example the secondary trend here is a bit out there--this means today's gap is "more likely" to get filled as compared to the 8-13 gap. so in the early to middle part of reversals "less likely" to get filled right off in any case (than later in the slower momentum area.

Number of gaps in a row--when you start seeing 3+ gaps in a row directionally--it's time to listen harder.

All of this stuff is of course conditional. rather than trading "rules" think guidelines or general market habits. a point was made here a week or so ago that (1) you followed the rules. (2) situations change and thus rules become invalid or at least far less useful. (3) at that point one changes the rules.

In my opinion this idea is good as far as it goes. But what is troubling is that--esp for newbies--it doesn't focus on the idea how you know what and when. Rules here are seen as a trend--a trend continues till it ends. so you just wait for the rules to fail and then change them? Well ok--fair enough. But how many failures do you allow? and so on. Each of us needs to find some way of thinking about this that makes sense to them.

My approach (which is not being promoted just referenced) is to not really take rules very seriously at all. and focus on watching the action. The idea being that we seem to be stuck watching the action in any case--so in that context the rules are less valuable as abstractions.

Further (again newbies key idea) all rules have situational validity given your experience method and of course aesthetics (which is how everything is chosen as opposed to some strange sense of abstract logic).

Example--when you are starting out you can get thrashed easily by the action--so maybe you start using fixed stops. (stops placed at the time the order is). Later you evolve beyond this (usually after losing a lot of money using fixed stops). or where the stop is placed--the typical example is just over the last high or under the last low--boom you lose a lot doing this in many markets. so the stop can be placed far earlier or later (then the "correct point") as you find different ways to see the action. or you can not use a fixed stop which becomes much more comfortable (and safe) with experience.

bottom line is=rules are quite often going to dissolve at some point. this is either due to market conditions--or you changing in your approach. Given this observation really listening to and sticking to the action is the key to the change. you cannot second guess your rule every-time--yet you must develop a sense of "not leaning too much" on the rule. don't let the rules do the heavy lifting (or they will get burnt out and leave). Rules can be thought of as "useful illusions" or "situationally vaild" but absolute? they say the only absolute is change and change eats rules for lunch.

as usual only my opinion and good luck to all.

[MrMiyagi]

spy

[BullBear52x]

Buy/Sell score card today so far bull = 1 Bear=0

[Al_Dente]

MORE ON THAT FLASH-BAR ON QQQ AND AAPL etc
“an apparent malfunction at BATS-Y has caused dozens of flash crashes... including in AAPL.”
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-08-1 ... ats-breaks

[fehro]

SPX 15m.. still wedged between support/resistance lines.. mind the morning gap

[BullBear52x]

Now I can see H/S

[Cobra]

consolidation, bias still up. only it cannot touch the lower line anymore otherwise it'd breakdown.

[BullBear52x]

Will there be a good news for BA? fishy fishy