01/06/2015 Live Update

[Al_Dente]

Hey L_T
I put that Stokes Accumulation/Distribution in pink behind BABA…. hmmmm
Top panel CCI (25) which I rarely use (whatever works)
(Do you have any way of knowing if BABA is included in QQQ yet? I have no idea)

[fehro]

and for DOW theory.. TRANs did not confirm INDU highs..

[brokebybernacke2]

Flower girl

thank u, im an optimist!

your 2nd target invoked??!!

[Al_Dente]

If oil falls to $40, then $TNX [yield on 10yr Treasurys] is going down to 1%
[At the moment crude futures are $48].
FED raising rates could be a severe mistake
Historically, [like now] when junk bonds give up the ghost and treasuries remain firm, it is a signal that something is not right.
[Jeff Gundlach, our favorite bond guru, in an interview 1/5/14]
http://www.fuw.ch/article/i-just-hope-t ... -is-doing/

[fehro]

XIV looking like neckline is the next target

[fehro]

INDEX dailies.. 6months.. TLT new HOD pennies away from 2012 highs / NDX nearing support 4100ish / COMPQ 4600ish but not looking particularly good.. GLD may break down trend…

[soku]

-%20Opt.png

The options liquidity is still in dn trend. More dn ahead

very informative. thanks man.

[Cobra]

members only update at 11:50 am
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2015/01 ... ay-update/

[soku]

and for DOW theory.. TRANs did not confirm INDU highs..

in terms of dow theory. i read something a while ago about extended dow, published by same group of people if i remember correctly. it is extended to couple more major indices. spx is one of them. the reason of this is in modern econ, physical transportation is less important than t the time dow theory is developed.
spx actually confirmed the high. it is a mixed picture.

[fehro]

and for DOW theory.. TRANs did not confirm INDU highs..

in terms of dow theory. i read something a while ago about extended dow, published by same group of people if i remember correctly. it is extended to couple more major indices. spx is one of them. the reason of this is in modern econ, physical transportation is less important than t the time dow theory is developed.
spx actually confirmed the high. it is a mixed picture.

Thanks, good to know.

[startap]

Hi fehro:

You mean 26 or lower?
Also do you think VIX will still be limited to the 25 range this time?

Thanks

XIV looking like neckline is the next target

[L_T]

Hey L_T
I put that Stokes Accumulation/Distribution in pink behind BABA…. hmmmm
Top panel CCI (25) which I rarely use (whatever works)
(Do you have any way of knowing if BABA is included in QQQ yet? I have no idea)

16baba_png.png

No it's not part of QQQ but it seems like only a matter of time right?

https://www.invesco.com/portal/site/us/ ... ticker=QQQ

[zudec]

Thanks Flower Girl - your note about 2006 saved me dollars!!!

[grandeG]

Good stuff – thanks Al. So does the target now become the equivalent of the dome?

XIV dome …. now what?
Bulkowski calls the dome a “Rounding Top Pattern” and “inverted bowl” and he notes that “When the right rim is above the left [higher low], the pattern outperforms [to the upside].” That is not the case here.
For a breakout, he waits for a 32% retracement bounce to confirm a buy signal.
A breakdown would be confirmed by a lower low breaking the pink line dome base. [That just happened; this chart is late.]
http://thepatternsite.com/roundingtop.html
Martha Stokes notes that the Accumulation/Distribution indicator (gray behind price) usually shows a rounding pattern that “leads the stock price”, while Bulkowski notes that straight volume shows a “rounded, U-shaped, appearance” [like the gray “smile” on the volume panel], and that “patterns with U-shaped volume outperform” and “Heavy breakout volume suggests better performance.”

16xiv dome.png

[fehro]

Hi fehro:
You mean 26 or lower?
Also do you think VIX will still be limited to the 25 range this time?
Thanks

XIV "should" tag the neckline.. 26ish.. then may bounce around for months.. .. unless the market just falls apart.. then neckline may break and lower target may get hit.. but may false break/ head fake.. and reverse up.. VIX is pushing into possible resistance.. but also could rocket to upper channel..

[Al_Dente]

L_T: thanks for that link
GrandeG: yes
but
VIXes are still solidly bear-SPY, but the divergence on inverted VIX (top panel) is sizeable and forces me to expect a turn soon-ish.
It’s in the third day of divergence and NO guessing how long that can persist. SPY PRICE will tell, as usual.

[DellGriffith]

re: 2015 and recession

Goldman Sachs has not called for a recession in 2015. If fact they are wildly bullish. Here is their most recent commentary on 2015:

The U.S. economy will likely grow at a roughly 3 percent rate in 2015, according to Goldman Sachs (GS) economists. That would make the year's annual economic growth the strongest since 2005, or before the housing market collapsed and the Great Recession started in 2008.

Goldman's growth is a "slight acceleration" from the 2.7 percent rate recorded over the past four quarters, the research note added. "The key reason for optimism on growth is that the domestic strengths of the US economy should outweigh the potential drag from weakness in global demand and the appreciation of the US dollar," the economists added. The stronger economic growth will help stimulate the job market, they added.

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/2015-top-se ... questions/

[FlowerGirl]

This should be good enough to convince even the most pessimist...
viewtopic.php?f=2&t=1539&p=180289#p180289

The attachment spy.png is no longer available

or may be not...

Parking spot...197.3...Time to (look for reasons) to go long...not until SPY gets closer to the parking spot...

[fehro]

TLT takes out 2012 highs

[Tutti]

re: 2015 and recession

Goldman Sachs has not called for a recession in 2015. If fact they are wildly bullish. Here is their most recent commentary on 2015:

The U.S. economy will likely grow at a roughly 3 percent rate in 2015, according to Goldman Sachs (GS) economists. That would make the year's annual economic growth the strongest since 2005, or before the housing market collapsed and the Great Recession started in 2008.

Goldman's growth is a "slight acceleration" from the 2.7 percent rate recorded over the past four quarters, the research note added. "The key reason for optimism on growth is that the domestic strengths of the US economy should outweigh the potential drag from weakness in global demand and the appreciation of the US dollar," the economists added. The stronger economic growth will help stimulate the job market, they added.

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/2015-top-se ... questions/

From goldmans 2015 equity outlook:
“S&P 500 has surged 10% since October. Our US equity market Sentiment Indicator now shows an extreme reading of 100, suggesting on a tactical basis S&P 500 will decline during the next month. Strategically, we expect 3% GDP growth will drive 5% earnings growth in 2015 and upside exists if crude prices remain low. Rising profits will lift the market to a new high around mid-year but after the Fed hikes in 3Q the P/E multiple will slip to 16x at year-end. We forecast the S&P 500 will close the year at 2100 and deliver a total return of 4% vs. -1% for a constant maturity 10-year Treasury.”