Indeed, why should this bull move give up at this moment? Small and midcaps are leading in RS the past few days, this is more bullish than not. Both IWM and MDY had a pierce of their upper trading bands yesterday, on hourly charts.
JNUG broke out yesterday but my profit stops are tight. The reason is that it is so bunched up against the MA it could easily fail here and drop lower again. Early morning test must succeed or I'm out.
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Indeed, why should this bull move give up at this moment?
Because SPY tagged its upper bb a couple days ago. That often leads to the bull move slowing down or even ending. That's why I sold my longs when I did. Yes, it could keep going, but its a good spot to prune longs. QE has ended, there is nothing to replace that stimulus with, and SPY has been in a box for months, so I didn't even leave a runner this time. I got completely out.
Market behavior has clearly shifted more towards bears with the end of QE.
bearish as of SPY 406 on 2/17/23
currently: end bearish as of SPY 406 on 3/6/23
CLO (Collateralized Loan Obligations) issuance very high because of Dodd Frank deadline. Apparently if your company is sub-prime (junk bond or less) and you need money to buy back stock the big banks make you a loan and then package it just like sub-prime mortgages with traunches and the hole 9 yards. New deadline coming up means that they would have to retain 5% of all issued obligations themselves. SEC is not backing down, yet. Lines up nicely with GE exit from credit. Could be this May is the last of the great buyback seasons. Anyway this fits in with what Dell said, as buybacks have been the other half of the rocket fuel.