04/18/2015 Weekend Update

[fehro]

/GC ..Monthly/Weekly/Daily … keep in mind those H&S on the monthly, take with a grain of salt.. as I've been saying for months and probably a year now?… anyhow… 1150-1250 range key levels coming up.. could be an invs H&S should it play out.. weekly hammer candle but still under 20w SMA.. daily 20d/50d held this week. Should we the move over the neckline act "weak" it could wedge up to downtrend resistance to only fail. As per usual mind the trends. "IF" the dollar moves sharply.. you "could" see a sharp pop in gold through the neckline (leaning this way). Otherwise.. we could triangle/chop into mid/late summer.

[Al_Dente]

SENTIMENT
There’s still a divergence between the “professionals” and the “retail” investors
FIRST CHART: The professionals (NAAIM) register 87% invested (the red zone)
SECOND CHART: While retail (AAII) hasn’t been very bullish in at least a couple months
THIRD CHART: And the Rydex Ratios, which clock real folks moving real money around (as opposed to answering questions on a survey),
went bear a few weeks back.
These are weekly charts.

[Al_Dente]

WHITE KNIGHT: PUTIN
“Greece is poised to sign a gas deal with Russia as early as Tuesday which could bring up to €5 billion into the depleted Greek coffers.”
“Beijing has also sought to invest in Greece's infrastructure and bought up €100m worth of short-term government debt last week…”
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-04-1 ... eline-fees

[fehro]

OIL - M/2hr + D/60m… still quirky that trading view.. anyhow.. Seems like the invs H&S on the daily is toast.. which may morph into a bearish rising wedge (highly speculative at this point).. short term 60m … possible H&S not sure about that 53 target.. possible support at 54 or triangle bull flag. The daily is holding support of sorts and pretty much in the middle of the 200d and 50d/20d. Could see a quick pullback to shake out the bulls with a 50d/20d retest prior to the 200d tag.. which.. would fit the bearish wedge. Keep in mind the DXY / USD dollar moves.

[gappy]

Gappy original research, not paste the news rehash. Adding value to the Cobra venue is always worth an hour break from Sunday chores. The fed's new darling (in diaper's now) for passing the buck is the overnight repo. It's off the book and provides bank liquidity which is used for house gain not infrastructure/entreprenuerial loanage of course. All you have to do is check for a huge overnight trade and buy your favorite index that morning.

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Who's the middle man?

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This is true for all maturities under 15 days, but funds will dump before quarter's end for cost basis gain.

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Proof is in the pudding.

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Vote Cobra. glta

[quientuves]

This time is China who kill the bears.

Bear's life is so hard nowadays...

[gappy]

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This time is China who kill the bears.

Bear's life is so hard nowadays...

[Trades with cats]

Reverse Repos go through the roof several times a year when the banks have to show their balance sheets to the feds. They borrow tons of the Feds stuff to increase their tier 1 capital which if I remember correctly would be for the current version of Basil II accords. Who was it that said you can always tell when a banker or a politician is lying, just watch to see if their lips are moving.

[Trades with cats]

Crude oil- I didn't see anything except deteriorating fundamentals. Price went up because money went into the market.

Fundamentals as I understand them from the media-The Saudi's ramped production last month and added the equivalent of 1/2 of North Dakota to world wide production. It is widely reported that it costs about $3.5 a barrel from Europe to the US ( I am guessing at Rotterdam to New Jersey) and that Warren wants up to $13.50 a barrel for his Choo Choo to take it from North Dakota to the East Coast refineries. So with the Brent WTI spread getting tighter that doesn't look like it will reduce storage. I looked at refineries and we have left the 88 % capacity and were at 92.3% last week. It looks like occasionally they can get it close to 100% but that never lasts long. The real question is when will the builds in inventory stop. Last year it was May 9, the year before May 24. Our production is higher but refinery capacity isn't. The drillers are desperate for cash to pay their bankers which is why we haven't seen any meaningful declines, and when we do remember they have over 3,000 drilled wells where they are holding back on fracking until they get a better price.

Financials- COT report reporting showed surging spec longs, back to the January levels according to at least one reporter. Tom McClellan said April 8 that commercials had closed out their short positions that started accumulating last July. Most analysts saying it is specs driving up price, not fundamentals. Goldman and many other big traders have put hundreds of millions into the 2x long oil etf according to their required public filings. We all know that is not a long term holding. In a contango market like this the monthly roll cost is a major overhead item.

Well it is said around here price rules. The narrative question is when do the hedge funds take their profits as this is a counter trend move accomplished with brute force (sort of sounds like the S&P on some days). Next week is peak earnings season, then we get a Fed meeting as stock buybacks kick in. All while waiting for summer drive season to stop the inventory builds. They will get out before the fall shutdown season because those builds could be even more brutal than what we are going through now. Personally, I do not allow myself to trade oil but it is one of my favorite financial soap operas.

[user13]

Check out this graph. Something is going on behind the scenes. Derivatives in trouble from the commodity bust?

[Al_Dente]

Short-term down bias until SPY fills the “island reversal gap” (pink).
[hat tip: Art Hill]

[gappy]

[quote="Trades with cats"]Crude oil- I didn't see anything except deteriorating fundamentals. Price went up because money went into the market.

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Spec's are betting on weather or war. jmo

[BullBear52x]

Energy is still shown as the most gainer for the week.

inside the sector it shows Coal is the leading gainer.

Buy looking at these Coal miner stocks, chart wise individually they look boring.

Top of the list, deep sea fishing 34 and 38 is looking up.

[MrMiyagi]

Gap up Monday on China news?

[gappy]

The 2 May cut.

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Dow opens flat, loses big on the week.

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[Al_Dente]

Monday: quiet economic calendar
Earnings Monday before the open: Morgan Stanley (MS). After the close: IBM

Tuesday: quiet economic calendar
Earnings Tuesday before the open: DuPont (DD), Travelers (TRV), United Tech (UTX), Lockheed Martin (LMT). After the close: Amgen (AMGN), Broadcom (BRCM), Yahoo! (YHOO). Don’t know what time: Verizon (VZ).

Wednesday :
MBA Mortgage Applications 7:00 AM ET
FHFA House Price Index 9:00 AM ET
Existing Home Sales 10:00 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report 10:30 AM
Crude Oil Inventories 10:30 AM
Earnings Wednesday before the open: Boeing (BA), Coca-Cola (KO), McDonald`s (MCD). After the close: AT&T (T), Facebook (FB), Qualcomm (QCOM), eBay (EBAY)

Thursday
Jobless Claims 8:30 AM ET
PMI Manufacturing Index Flash 9:45 AM ET
New Home Sales 10:00 AM ET
Fed Balance Sheet 4:30 PM ET
Money Supply 4:30 PM ET
Earnings Thursday before the open: Procter & Gamble (PG), 3M (MMM), General Motors (GM), Caterpillar (CAT), PulteGroup (PHM), Union Pacific (UNP). After the close: Google (GOOGL), Microsoft (MSFT), Starbucks (SBUX), Amazon (AMZN).

Friday:
Durable Goods 8:30 AM ET
Earnings Friday before the open: Biogen (BIIB), Simon Property (SPG)