07/11/2015 Weekend Update

[Unique]

Dear Cobra:
Please remove Cletus from this blog.
Everyone has him blocked anyway, nonetheless he cannot be allowed to insult you.
Differences of opinion are always appreciated, but insulting our host is not acceptable.
Thank you,
Al Dente

Frankly, I think he does not think like ordinary people. As no matter how we explain to him, even when our views are bullish, he has only one answer: you're wrong, market is bullish, it's going up forever. I find it very interesting and unbelievable.

Also I noticed, whenever the market is down, he disappears. Whenever the market is up, he then jumps out then pointing finger to everyone saying you (everyone) bears are so foolish.

I think Cletus is a parody account of this : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cletus_Spuckler
If not, I feel fortunate to have learned some critical thinking skills and some people are just less fortunate. It is what it is.
Or maybe his online persona is a coping mechanism But baiting people is really a waste of time. Peace!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8rh6qqsmxNs

Will try to post some charts tomorrow.

[DellGriffith]

SPY update:

My proprietary indicators have turned bullish and suggest a low has been put in. I think I'll be looking for a place to go long SPY on monday. My eye will be on China for the next few weeks. If details begin to trickle out about exactly WHY China took emergency measures, I'll probably close the long. I'd be looking for things like:

1. top executives getting pushed into retirement / fired / arrested.
2. Large companies going under / getting merged with bigger fish.

My long exposure will be pretty limited as well, but I think I should honor my indicators a little bit.

[tsf]

Thanks, fehro.

@sentimentrader tweet supports Cobra's conclusion:
Smart money goes long ~$5 billion in index futures this week, 3rd highest of the bull market. $SPX $SPY

Also:
Largest weekly outflow among active ETFs = $EEM. Largest inflow = $XLF...that's a new 5-year high.

[BullBear52x]

We are approaching 20/50 dma resistance it will also be the first sell the rip of this phase.

Intraday level looks like ending diagonal but dips will be bought. so, next week I will expect another overnight move astravaganza

[BullBear52x]

When UUP (dollar) up the commodity should be down not the case on DBA and CORN

Corn looks to challenge 27.75

and bull flag here on DBA. but with strong dollar? one of them will show the true color in a week to come

[BullBear52x]

GLD and SLV are at the mercy of lower historical support level, my mid term entry setup is still sell away.

[BullBear52x]

Chart of the day: SNE a classic of head and shoulder kiss.

[Al_Dente]

WHALE WATCHING:
Soros
CY
http://www.marketfolly.com/2015/07/soro ... t+Folly%29

NYSE chief Dick Grasso “will collect $139.5 million”
This is the dick who last week waited “forever” to address that “glitch”
All we needed early on was a one sentence press release. Thanks dick.
Click the top story here:
https://www.google.com/search?hl=en&gl= ... Million%22

[mozart]

Short positions have suddenly deacreased on uso, qqq, spy,... Expexcting market to rebound

[Al_Dente]

I periodically post portions of this chart showing short-and-medium-term participation (bottom panels). They bounce around like they should, with 20 being the short/medium term bottom zone and 80 the top zone.
What I rarely post is the LONG TERM PARTICIPATION RATE (third panel down, just below volume) which has been testing 50 for the last couple of weeks, and it has remained above 51. Friday 57% of the S&P-500 stocks were still above their 200-day moving average.
I’ve been watching that long-term-participation rate wane a bit since last year (red dashed line). It has been showing (long-term) non-confirmation, as fewer stocks participate in each new high.
You can extend the look-back period as far as you want, the long-term reality is this: above 50% is still bullish; if it drops below 50%, it’s bearish.
vote: https://stockcharts.com/public/1684859
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UfZmMJKIBec

[Tutti]

I'm done here. Bye. Too stubborn analysis.

Dude, this board doesn't need perma-bears like you. The market is obviously going up. I have been screaming that forever and you bears just don't get it.

I'm so sick of it. Look at this chart, it points to a secular bull market. Period.

[Unique]

ES gap down, great stuff. Staying inside the 2074 vs 2034 hourly/daily bear channel. The longer we stay below 2085 the better for bears breakdown in the future still.

[fehro]

Another /es futures gap 5m

[gappy]

Easy check...buck/yen every Sunday.

Capture.PNG

Hourly. Vote Cobra. glta

[Unique]

US DOLLAR INDEX FUTURES UPDATE: WAITING FOR ANOTHER BULL BREAKOUT AFTER MONTHLY CONSOLIDATION FINISHES

Very impressive bulls, all bull targets were reached ahead of timeline.

Now, we're in the 4th month of the consolidation phase after 9 months of higher high bull trend July 2014 -> March 2015.

Since the buying climax hit 100.78 in March, we now patiently wait for a breakout above 100.80 or 93.00 or else this is gonna need a few more months of consolidation.

Breakout targets/levels:
Bull: 100.80 -> 104.20 -> 107.4 -> 109.4 (76.4% fib retracement)
Bear: 93 -> 90.25 -> 87.8 -> 85

Maybe, it's time for us Canadians to convert some of our USD back to CAD. Lol maybe...easiest passive money this year?

Charts worth a thousand words again:

[fehro]

USD another view.. Unique... fwiw.. could go either way here.. yes more consolidation, or deeper pullback first. 10% correction in 1998.. was Russia's default. (The "possible" H&S on the 60m if it plays out target on the daily = 93.00 level

[Unique]

USD another view.. Unique... fwiw.. could go either way here.. yes more consolidation, or deeper pullback first. 10% correction in 1998.. was Russia's default. (The "possible" H&S on the 60m if it plays out target on the daily = 93.00 level

I think we pretty much said the same thing...

Forgot to link USD prev thread Jan 23, 2015: viewtopic.php?f=2&t=1558&p=182175&hilit ... ex#p182175

[fehro]

USD another view.. Unique... fwiw.. could go either way here.. yes more consolidation, or deeper pullback first. 10% correction in 1998.. was Russia's default. (The "possible" H&S on the 60m if it plays out target on the daily = 93.00 level

I think we pretty much said the same thing...

Yes, very true.. and the $CDW - Canadian dollar fwiw.. A messy chart, but trendlines to watch. fwiw. Posting from way way back.. fwiw... viewtopic.php?f=2&t=871&p=124598&hilit=%24CDW#p124598

[Unique]

USD another view.. Unique... fwiw.. could go either way here.. yes more consolidation, or deeper pullback first. 10% correction in 1998.. was Russia's default. (The "possible" H&S on the 60m if it plays out target on the daily = 93.00 level

I think we pretty much said the same thing...

Yes, very true.. and the $CDW - Canadian dollar fwiw.. A messy chart, but trendlines to watch. fwiw.

You know what's funny? I'm Canadian and it never crossed my mind that I haven't even looked at a CAD chart before...thanks! Damn americano so tempting

[fehro]

OIL monthly.. similar to the $CDW weekly fwiw, not really a total surprise.