08/31/2015 Live Update

[uempel]

Update:

[Trades with cats]

So far we have crossed VWAP 5 times and now been stopped by it twice. As we head back down to S2 will it hold for the third time and act as a launch pad or will it be a trap door?

[Unique]

Update:

sw.png

Are those 1m SPX charts log or arth? I can't really tell on my phone

[uempel]

No, no they are numeric.

Update:

sw.png

Are those 1m SPX charts log or arth? I can't really tell on my phone

[Unique]

Great, thanks uempel

[fehro]

SPX .. minor descendning wedge 5m

[Al_Dente]

LONG TERM:
After 43 months above the MONTHLY 10ma, and a SPY move from roughly 128 to 198, she is set to close below the MONTHLY 10ma today
(barring any last minute shenanigans) .
This occurred twice since the 2009 bottom.
2010 and 2011
Long termers had to wait 3 months (2010) and 6 months (2011) for a re-entry signal (a close above 10ma). Both times the re-entry was at a higher spy price (roughly 5-10 spy points higher on re-entry).
This pissed off the long termers, as they had to endure paying taxes on gains, and round trip commissions, and higher re-entry prices.
But those who honored the sell signals of 2000 and 2007 did not complain.

Let’s say that instead of outright selling, long-term folks enter “synthetic sells” (like long puts or their insurance equivalents). We should be able to track that using Put/Call Ratios or put volume levels or etc.
SKEW has already been pricing in “black swan” risk. SKEW closed at 130.38 Friday (too high) and is still up there today.
[“…as the disaster risk increases, customers demand more puts as insurance while market makers become more credit constrained in writing puts. The skew steepens because the credit constraint is more sensitive to out-of-the-money puts.”]
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ES ... king":true}

And VIX futures are still in backwardation ( -10.44% at Friday’s close).
http://www.barchart.com/commodityfuture ... de=I&view=


Something for the bulls, short to medium term:
Keep an eye on the ZWEIG BREADTH THRUST indicator
This is only day five, so you have to wait.
If the Zweig indicator (top panel) can move from zenith to nadir (41 to 60) in TEN DAYS the bulls are off to the races.

[jademann]

Not sure if it matters but it is Sep 1st tomorrow..

[tsf]

Thank you for your posts !

LONG TERM:
After 43 months above the MONTHLY 10ma, and a SPY move from roughly 128 to 198, she is set to close below the MONTHLY 10ma today
(barring any last minute shenanigans) .
This occurred twice since the 2009 bottom.
2010 and 2011
Long termers had to wait 3 months (2010) and 6 months (2011) for a re-entry signal (a close above 10ma). Both times the re-entry was at a higher spy price (roughly 5-10 spy points higher on re-entry).
This pissed off the long termers, as they had to endure paying taxes on gains, and round trip commissions, and higher re-entry prices.
But those who honored the sell signals of 2000 and 2007 did not complain.

831faber sell.png.png

Let’s say that instead of outright selling, long-term folks enter “synthetic sells” (like long puts or their insurance equivalents). We should be able to track that using Put/Call Ratios or put volume levels or etc.
SKEW has already been pricing in “black swan” risk. SKEW closed at 130.38 Friday (too high) and is still up there today.
[“…as the disaster risk increases, customers demand more puts as insurance while market makers become more credit constrained in writing puts. The skew steepens because the credit constraint is more sensitive to out-of-the-money puts.”]
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ES ... king":true}

And VIX futures are still in backwardation ( -10.44% at Friday’s close).
http://www.barchart.com/commodityfuture ... de=I&view=


Something for the bulls, short to medium term:
Keep an eye on the ZWEIG BREADTH THRUST indicator
This is only day five, so you have to wait.
If the Zweig indicator (top panel) can move from zenith to nadir (41 to 60) in TEN DAYS the bulls are off to the races.

831zweig.png.png

[MrMiyagi]

spy

[Cobra]

members only update at 3:50 pm
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2015/08 ... ay-update/

[Al_Dente]

Thank you for your posts !

[noob]

Seems the hanging man on Friday is confirmed? And L1 short is triggered?

[Cobra]

well, guess that's it for today. Tuesday has been bear friendly recently. thank you guys, I'll see you tomorrow.

before the close, please take a little time to vote for me, thanks. https://stockcharts.com/public/1684859/tenpp

[Unique]

Thank you for your posts !

LONG TERM:
After 43 months above the MONTHLY 10ma, and a SPY move from roughly 128 to 198, she is set to close below the MONTHLY 10ma today
(barring any last minute shenanigans) .
This occurred twice since the 2009 bottom.
2010 and 2011
Long termers had to wait 3 months (2010) and 6 months (2011) for a re-entry signal (a close above 10ma). Both times the re-entry was at a higher spy price (roughly 5-10 spy points higher on re-entry).
This pissed off the long termers, as they had to endure paying taxes on gains, and round trip commissions, and higher re-entry prices.
But those who honored the sell signals of 2000 and 2007 did not complain.

831faber sell.png.png

Let’s say that instead of outright selling, long-term folks enter “synthetic sells” (like long puts or their insurance equivalents). We should be able to track that using Put/Call Ratios or put volume levels or etc.
SKEW has already been pricing in “black swan” risk. SKEW closed at 130.38 Friday (too high) and is still up there today.
[“…as the disaster risk increases, customers demand more puts as insurance while market makers become more credit constrained in writing puts. The skew steepens because the credit constraint is more sensitive to out-of-the-money puts.”]
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ES ... king":true}

And VIX futures are still in backwardation ( -10.44% at Friday’s close).
http://www.barchart.com/commodityfuture ... de=I&view=


Something for the bulls, short to medium term:
Keep an eye on the ZWEIG BREADTH THRUST indicator
This is only day five, so you have to wait.
If the Zweig indicator (top panel) can move from zenith to nadir (41 to 60) in TEN DAYS the bulls are off to the races.

831zweig.png.png

Agree, you hit a lot of great points on longer term market Pasta.
------

For long term traders/investors I think we are at an important phase and should proceed with caution to long term holdings,
the Al Brooks perspective in the past 2 weekly updates have been interesting as well. Links in weekend update
viewtopic.php?f=2&t=1777&start=20#p198631

[Al_Dente]

Thank you for your posts !
Agree, you hit a lot of great points on longer term market Pasta.
------
For long term traders/investors I think we are at an important phase and should proceed with caution to long term holdings,
the Al Brooks perspective in the past 2 weekly updates have been interesting as well. Links in weekend update
viewtopic.php?f=2&t=1777&start=20#p198631

Thanks
Off topic:
Sector % returns since the 8/24 low

[MrMiyagi]

spy

[fehro]

pushing hard for that monthly hammer CADUSD M/60m

[Heck]

ISE Indices with three BUYS

https://www.ise.com/market-data/isee-index/

May take a day or two

[daytradingES]

o/n action is looking very week.
I hope this isn't the breakdown as I'm not on board yet!
(From weekend update there was a possibility the dead cat bounce top was Friday 1991ES. - see second post with the time charts)