01/16/2016 Weekend Update

[uempel]

January 2008 in comparison to January 2016:

2007/08: Post Santa decline in SPX had an incredible downwards momentum, lost 15.5 percent in 18 trading sessions.

2015/16: so far the Post Santa decline in SPX has lost 10.7 percent in 12 trading sessions

[brucekeller]

http://www.investing.com/indices/indices-futures has a nice list of most world futures too, all in one screen and then has tradingview's charting system to boot.

[DellGriffith]

January 2008 in comparison to January 2016:

2008.png

201516B.png

The rebound in January of 2008 began after MLK day. MLK day was 1/21/2008. The low was 1/22. So maybe we set a low tomorrow get a rebound from there.

[GreedyKojiro]

retest of 1980? or even 2010? It ain't dramatic without a kiss of good bye!... although any breakup will have some pain before the last kiss....

[fehro]

/CL - USOIL racing towards multi year support level 26.50/25.50

[uempel]

January 2008 in comparison to January 2016:

2008.png

201516B.png

The rebound in January of 2008 began after MLK day. MLK day was 1/21/2008. The low was 1/22. So maybe we set a low tomorrow get a rebound from there.

I've got a signal for Thursday ...

[DellGriffith]

I'm mostly following oil today too.

[uempel]

retest of 1980? or even 2010? It ain't dramatic without a kiss of good bye!... although any breakup will have some pain before the last kiss....

Kojiro, we know that you are greedy, but are you blind too Of course there might be a rebound, but I don't see any kissing ...

[GreedyKojiro]

retest of 1980? or even 2010? It ain't dramatic without a kiss of good bye!... although any breakup will have some pain before the last kiss....

Kojiro, we know that you are greedy, but are you blind too Of course there might be a rebound, but I don't see any kissing ...

d.png

It was sure a kiss, Uempel! But it wasn't a kiss of good bye

[uempel]

We know that catching falling knives is a losers game. But should somebody be hell-bent on going long next week check out SPX 1823. And should SPX touch the 1823 area next Wednesday or Thursday the odds are 51:49 that there might be a rebound But as I said, it's a losers game. Odds worse than in Russian Roulette

[DellGriffith]

We know that catching falling knives is a losers game. But should somebody be hell-bent on going long next week check out SPX 1823. And should SPX touch the 1823 area next Wednesday or Thursday the odds are 51:49 that there might be a rebound But as I said, it's a losers game. Odds worse than in Russian Roulette

SPX2.png

There are plenty of support lines you can draw on that chart that didn't get retested before a bounce occurred. For example, there's a dip in June of 2013 that connects to Feb of 2014. The next two drops in 2014 failed to get back to that line.

[uempel]

Kojiro, let's agree to disagree. I see the rebound up to the blue channel with a top at SPX 2016.48 as a romantic good-bye kiss ....

This is a TA kiss

Visualization of a TA kiss

retest of 1980? or even 2010? It ain't dramatic without a kiss of good bye!... although any breakup will have some pain before the last kiss....

Kojiro, we know that you are greedy, but are you blind too Of course there might be a rebound, but I don't see any kissing ...

The attachment d.png is no longer available

It was sure a kiss, Uempel! But it wasn't a kiss of good bye

[BullBear52x]

Why don't we look at earning (GAAP)? market will be slump until it turns around in big picture long term.

for scalping, it's good day any day but for long term investment many funds are under 10% to 20% drop from their peaks, check them out to get a good view.

market never tank on low fear, fear is high right now

[MrMiyagi]

/CL - USOIL racing towards multi year support level 26.50/25.50

I think the Saudis want this at $25, they haven't killed off Canada's economy just yet.

[GreedyKojiro]

Kojiro, let's agree to disagree. I see the rebound up to the blue channel with a top at SPX 2016.48 as a romantic good-bye kiss ....

TAK.png

Kiss.png

retest of 1980? or even 2010? It ain't dramatic without a kiss of good bye!... although any breakup will have some pain before the last kiss....

Kojiro, we know that you are greedy, but are you blind too Of course there might be a rebound, but I don't see any kissing ...

d.png

It was sure a kiss, Uempel! But it wasn't a kiss of good bye

I totally agree with you, Uempel, those kisses are Daily good bye. Shouldn't we need a Weekly good bye also? If you look at both cases in late 2000-early 2001 and early 2008 I posted above, we should revisit 1980 area for at least once (yes, maybe it is too much to ask for 2010).

[BullBear52x]

Kojiro, let's agree to disagree. I see the rebound up to the blue channel with a top at SPX 2016.48 as a romantic good-bye kiss ....

The attachment TAK.png is no longer available

The attachment Kiss.png is no longer available

retest of 1980? or even 2010? It ain't dramatic without a kiss of good bye!... although any breakup will have some pain before the last kiss....

Kojiro, we know that you are greedy, but are you blind too Of course there might be a rebound, but I don't see any kissing ...

The attachment d.png is no longer available

It was sure a kiss, Uempel! But it wasn't a kiss of good bye

I totally agree with you, Uempel, those kisses are Daily good bye. Shouldn't we need a Weekly good bye also? If you look at both cases in late 2000-early 2001 and early 2008 I posted above, we should revisit 1980 area for at least once (yes, maybe it is too much to ask for 2010).

[Al_Dente]

CAT FIGHT ALERT:
zh alleged that “Dallas Fed members had met with banks in Houston and explicitly ‘told them not to force energy bankruptcies’ and to demand asset sales instead.” Further, zh alleged that the FED suspended “mark to market” rules for energy debt.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-01-1 ... orce-shale

This “rumor” was debunked by the Dallas Fed.
zh responds, demanding transparency and full disclosure via a FOIA filing [Freedom of Information Act].
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-01-1 ... -questions

Elsewhere: WFC, the largest U.S. mortgage lender, disclosed in last week’s conference call that they have $17 billion in outstanding energy loans, the majority of which is rated junk, and they “set aside” $1.2 billion (7%) in “loan loss reserves” to cover losses in the oil and gas portfolio.

[BullBear52x]

How is real Estate? lets look at IYR

[Al_Dente]

OIL UPDATE:
And now Bloomberg SHOWS the Koch Brothers oil refinery, "Paying" -$0.50 For North Dakota Crude [yes, that’s NEGATIVE fifty cents per barrel].
“…the crude glut is now so acute that the Koch brothers are actually charging 0.50/bbl to take low grade oil at their Flint Hills Resources refining arm.”

zh snarks: “It's no wonder the Dallas Fed suspended mark-to-market on energy debts - there's no market to mark to.”
[source: Bloomberg via zh]
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-01-1 ... kota-crude

[josephli]

catfight.png.png

CAT FIGHT ALERT:
zh alleged that “Dallas Fed members had met with banks in Houston and explicitly ‘told them not to force energy bankruptcies’ and to demand asset sales instead.” Further, zh alleged that the FED suspended “mark to market” rules for energy debt.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-01-1 ... orce-shale

This “rumor” was debunked by the Dallas Fed.
zh responds, demanding transparency and full disclosure via a FOIA filing [Freedom of Information Act].
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-01-1 ... -questions

Elsewhere: WFC, the largest U.S. mortgage lender, disclosed in last week’s conference call that they have $17 billion in outstanding energy loans, the majority of which is rated junk, and they “set aside” $1.2 billion (7%) in “loan loss reserves” to cover losses in the oil and gas portfolio.

For the bank industry's exposure in energy-related junk bond, interesting article here:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/ ... 0-a-barrel

it keep me wonder why you guys spend more time on ZH than bloomberg? presumably bloomberg has much better contents.