05/21/2016 Weekend Update

[Cobra]

Institutional buying and selling chart from stocktiming shows clearly more distribution than accumulation, not good.

• When accumulation and distribution are down means we're in trending phase.

• When accumulation is up, distribution is down, it's a bottoming phase.

• When accumulation is down, distribution is up, it's the topping phase.

[Cobra]

Smart money are buying while QQQ is down, so it's case 2.), the pullback was over? I know it conflicts with the Institutional buying and selling chart I posted earlier. But that chart only reflects what is happening now, not the future while the smart money chart here does reflect the future, so I'd put more weight on the smart money chart.


How I use the chart:

I don't care what's the logic behind the chart. I found it works in the following two cases:

1.) When market up huge, if I see smart money huge short, best if new record short, then I know a short-term pullback is due soon.
2.) When market down, if I see smart money suddenly rises sharply from very negative value, then I know the pullback was over.

So I only use this chart for the above 2 cases. Besides those 2 cases, it means nothing to me. i.e. the absolute value of this chart means nothing to me, I only care if it rises sharply or drops sharply.

[Cobra]

Summary of the week's stock picks. Surprisingly not a bad week, thought a flat week as index is flat
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=2040&p=222807#p222807

[Al_Dente]

[Lipper]
“Year-to-date outflows from U.S.-based stock funds now total $45 billion, rivaling the $50 billion in outflows for all of 2011, the last year of major cash withdrawals. The funds bled more than $72 billion in 2008, at the peak of the financial crisis, Lipper data show.”
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-inves ... SKCN0YA2YX

[BofAML]
“…bond funds …have now taken new money for 11 of the past 12 weeks… [Bond]…funds received $2.8 billion over the week while precious metals - a category which includes gold - took in $1.8 billion, having received inflows in 18 of the last 19 weeks.
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-funds ... SKCN0YB12G


WOW
Check out the new flagship Apple Store at Union Square, San Francisco, just opened today:
http://www.theverge.com/2016/5/19/11715 ... sco-photos


Here's the trailer for “Equity,” the new movie about a badass female banker
http://www.businessinsider.com/heres-th ... ler-2016-5

[Cobra]

The weekly sentiment poll is here:
viewtopic.php?f=9&t=2047

[Cobra]

stock picks for the next week are here:
viewtopic.php?f=10&p=222813#p222813

[TraderJoe]

GOLDMAN: Hedge funds are betting billions that these 16 stocks are going to implode

16. Ford
Ticker: F
Value of short interest (in billions): $2.1
Short interest of % of float: 4%
Return year-to-date: -1%
Source: Goldman Sachs

15. Walmart
Ticker: WMT
Value of short interest (in billions): $2.2
Short interest of % of float: 2%
Return year-to-date: 9%
Source: Goldman Sachs

14. Intel
Ticker: INTC
Value of short interest (in billions): $2.4
Short interest of % of float: 2%
Return year-to-date: -10%
Source: Goldman Sachs

13. Johnson and Johnson
Ticker: JNJ
Value of short interest (in billions): $2.5
Short interest of % of float: 1%
Return year-to-date: 12%
Source: Goldman Sachs

12. Gilead Sciences
Ticker: GILD
Value of short interest (in billions): $2.5
Short interest of % of float: 2%
Return year-to-date: -17%
Source: Goldman Sachs

11. AT&T
Ticker: T
Value of short interest (in billions): $2.6
Short interest of % of float: 1%
Return year-to-date: 17%
Source: Goldman Sachs

10. IBM
Ticker: IBM
Value of short interest (in billions): $3.1
Short interest of % of float: 2%
Return year-to-date: 11%
Source: Goldman Sachs

9. Chevron
Ticker: CVX
Value of short interest (in billions): $3.2
Short interest of % of float: 2%
Return year-to-date: 15%
Source: Goldman Sachs

8. Caterpillar
Ticker: CAT
Value of short interest (in billions): $3.2
Short interest of % of float: 7%
Return year-to-date: 6%
Source: Goldman Sachs

7. Target
Ticker: TGT
Value of short interest (in billions): $3.2
Short interest of % of float: 7%
Return year-to-date: 4%
Source: Goldman Sachs

6. Express Scripts Holdings
Ticker: ESRX
Value of short interest (in billions): $3.4
Short interest of % of float: 7%
Return year-to-date: -17%
Source: Goldman Sachs

5. Netflix
Ticker: NFLX
Value of short interest (in billions): $3.4
Short interest of % of float: 9%
Return year-to-date: -22%
Source: Goldman Sachs

4. Boeing
Ticker: BA
Value of short interest (in billions): $3.5
Short interest of % of float: 4%
Return year-to-date: -6%
Source: Goldman Sachs

3. General Electric
Ticker: GE
Value of short interest (in billions): $3.5
Short interest of % of float: 1%
Return year-to-date: -3%
Source: Goldman Sachs

2. Exxon Mobil
Ticker: XOM
Value of short interest (in billions): $3.6
Short interest of % of float: 1%
Return year-to-date: 17%
Source: Goldman Sachs

1. Walt Disney
Ticker: DIS
Value of short interest (in billions): $4.3
Short interest of % of float: 3%
Return year-to-date: -4%
Source: Goldman Sachs

[uempel]

GOLDMAN: Hedge funds are betting billions that these 16 stocks are going to implode



1. Walt Disney
Ticker: DIS
Value of short interest (in billions): $4.3
Short interest of % of float: 3%
Return year-to-date: -4%
Source: Goldman Sachs

Now that's a risky short ... Most of the others I kind of understand, but DIS

[BullBear52x]

From "It is what it is Department"

Indecision short term, mid to long term are still sell.

[fehro]

Weeklies Dailies Candles. Weeklies holding, Dailies bullish leaning. VIX daily ugly, weekly ugly-ish.. but doji. <200w SMA.
As mentioned on Friday.. you could argue we are at the mid point between bears and bulls. "Feels" there's a big gap coming on Monday direction unknown.. but part of me keeps yelling at me up

[fehro]

P&F Long long term.. DXY - USdollar holding, /CL nears resistance, VIX and NDX/RUT iffy.. possible reversals. SPX/NYSE nothing yet.

[fehro]

Industry % Weeklies. The curious one this week. Semis +13.47% - that's a big move. Is it a restest of channel break or bull flag break, or just an expanding wedge (red)

[fehro]

T2 http://www.worden.com/TeleChartHelp/Con ... rs_T2s.htm

Most on swing sell.. but a couple trying to turn around again.

[fehro]

T2 Channels % Stocks 1+2 Channels ><200d Weekly ><40d Daily

[fehro]

Yields. 5yr FVX hefty move up 13.5%.

[fehro]

Yields v2.0 - curiously.. also like the SPX comment either way.. big.. mid channels, Triangles.

ZN1! / SPX (10yr T-note/SPX) W/D - no red
ZB1! / SPX (30y T-bond/SPX) W/D - no red… no worry .. bulls still have a chance contrary to what everyone sees it seems… "could" be lagging

IRX 13- week Treasury still multi year highs, near recent highs.

[Al_Dente]

Stockcharts:
The upcoming death of Flash means everyone is getting the new version of ChartNotes: In case you missed it, we are in the process of releasing a new version of ChartNotes that uses HTML5 instead of Adobe Flash. As of now, the new HTML5 version is the default version of ChartNotes. The Flash version is still available for now, but that will change soon. The people at Google Chrome and Mozilla Firefox (and elsewhere) are eliminating their support for Flash soon which means that, even if we wanted to, we are unable to continue supporting a Flash-based verion for much longer.
To use the new version, click on the left-most "Annotate" link below your chart. Please try to use the new version from now on. If you run into a bug, please let us know and then use the second "Annotate" link which (for now) will bring up the older Flash version. Here's an article that details the differences between versions:
http://stockcharts.com/articles/chartwa ... -tool.html

It looks like the only thing "discontinued" will be the "XOR" fill mode for shapes

[BullBear52x]

Stockcharts:
The upcoming death of Flash means everyone is getting the new version of ChartNotes: In case you missed it, we are in the process of releasing a new version of ChartNotes that uses HTML5 instead of Adobe Flash. As of now, the new HTML5 version is the default version of ChartNotes. The Flash version is still available for now, but that will change soon. The people at Google Chrome and Mozilla Firefox (and elsewhere) are eliminating their support for Flash soon which means that, even if we wanted to, we are unable to continue supporting a Flash-based verion for much longer.
To use the new version, click on the left-most "Annotate" link below your chart. Please try to use the new version from now on. If you run into a bug, please let us know and then use the second "Annotate" link which (for now) will bring up the older Flash version. Here's an article that details the differences between versions:
http://stockcharts.com/articles/chartwa ... -tool.html

It looks like the only thing "discontinued" will be the "XOR" fill mode for shapes

You are right Dr. Al, I just hate to get out of my comfort zone, the new HTML5 version, I just need to get used to it. I hope it doesn't slow down my speed on posting intraday.

[BullBear52x]

early warning sign see $xxHL

As you can see here, they were all red on Thursday. Friday save the day but in the week to come they will be a must to see chart, they are a tell tale sign of market direction. see MACD how they are coordinated to one another, this is anther reason I think we are going sideways to down.

[gappy]

4 day.

Capture.PNG

Weaker dollar, higher oil, no Brexit all positive to justify a good public relations rate hike. Maybe we see a repeat of the circled hitch on the left. Target still 105ish, stronger yen would put some good treasury heft to the Abe sales tax increase and buy more yuans to trade. Vote Cobra. glta