06/25/2016 Weekend Update

[Cobra]

Smart money buying a little bit, not extreme enough to argue that the low was in.


How I use the chart:

I don't care what's the logic behind the chart. I found it works in the following two cases:

1.) When market up huge, if I see smart money huge short, best if new record short, then I know a short-term pullback is due soon.
2.) When market down, if I see smart money suddenly rises sharply from very negative value, then I know the pullback was over.

So I only use this chart for the above 2 cases. Besides those 2 cases, it means nothing to me. i.e. the absolute value of this chart means nothing to me, I only care if it rises sharply or drops sharply.

[Cobra]

Summary of the week's stock picks.
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=2079&p=225519#p225519

[Cobra]

The stock picks for the next week are here:
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=2087&p=225524#p225524

[Al_Dente]

“For the first time, Britain's prime minister will not be chosen by a general election, or by MPs, but by party activists:
• First, Conservative MPs elect two candidates.
• After these two candidates have been chosen, a postal ballot will be sent out to all Conservative Party members on a "one member, one vote" basis.
The winner of this vote will be the next prime minister. That means 149,800 Tory activists… about 0.2% of the UK population - will choose the next leader of the UK.”

http://www.businessinsider.com/brexit-e ... ext-2016-6

Bank of England Governor Mark Carney said the central bank was "ready to provide" more than £250 billion, or $344 billion, of "additional capital to its normal operations." Essentially the BOE is ready to prop up the UK's financial system to protect it from the direct impacts of the Brexit.

[Al_Dente]

HOW TO EXIT
Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty:
http://www.lisbon-treaty.org/wcm/the-li ... le-50.html

and:
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/po ... 00436.html

[fehro]

Weekly Daily Candles. Several dailies pushing below the lower BBand. SPX/NYSE?RUT 200d is very close.. but NDX/COMPQ way below the 50d/200d lines.
Ugly Dailies, Ugly weekly candles. Mind the 50w SMA on the weeklies. GLD into 200w SMA

[fehro]

Industry % Weeklies. SPY volume on Friday highest of the year 333.3 Million

[fehro]

T2 http://www.worden.com/TeleChartHelp/Con ... rs_T2s.htm

As per last weekend.. the SKEW was on the rise.. and delivered .. and still elevated.

[fehro]

T2 Channels % Stocks 1+2 Channels ><200d Weekly ><40d Daily

[fehro]

Yields

[fehro]

Long long term P&F .. now showing some possible potential weakness

[Out of Bounds]

Here's a clue as to when we might get some support.

[Xian]

From Ritholtz, who got it from BlackRock.
Who woulda thunk it? I really did check out for a year.

[Xian]

From USA Today of all places. And um, WTF was I doing reading USA Today?

[QED]

From the comment section of Channels and Patterns:
http://www.channelsandpatterns.com/2016 ... e-day.html

johnnywa
Jack as we go into 2nd quarter, I believe no rate increase probably until after elections,2nd quarter earnings next. So do you believe no rate increase trumps earnings then new highs?

springheel_jack
I think we are doing a fib retrace of the move up from February. After that should do new highs IMO.

johnnywa
How low do you think we go 1980ish?

springheel_jack
I like the 1980 & 1987 targets & ideally it would run a little further to the 50% fib retrace at 1965 area. It could run further to the 61.8% fib retrace target in the 1930 area, but I no longer have a pattern setup to get there, and I'm eyeing the impressive support in the 1950 area very doubtfully. I won't be holding my breath waiting for 1930.

All the current alarmist rubbish we are reading about Brexit & crashes aside, I'm just seeing this as a fib retrace of the move up from February conducted with an unusually large amount of background noise. That might be mistaken but I'm really not seeing anything at the moment to suggest otherwise. if 1950 support breaks I'll be considering alternate scenarios more seriously and a sustained break of 1900 would open up a retest of 1810 and, at that point only, a likely marginal new low. I'd be pretty surprised to see that though.

Whatever happens I'm looking for new all time highs afterwards, though not necessarily but a lot. The historical stats still say that 2016 will be doing very well to close more than marginally green at the close of the year.

[QED]

Scott Redler ‏@RedDogT3:
What's after Brexit?
Grexit! Departugal! Italeave! Fruckoff! Czechout! Oustria! Finish! Slovakout! Latervia! Byegium!

[QED]

Eric Scott Hunsader @nanexllc:
https://twitter.com/nanexllc/status/746453474624180224

Woah.
We're not done yet.
CME doubling price fluctuation limits.

[QED]

Steve Burns @SJosephBurns:

Is Karen the Supertrader a ponzi scheme?
https://www.sec.gov/litigation/complain ... 016-98.pdf

https://twitter.com/SJosephBurns/status ... 4062597120

[TraderJoe]

I personally hope we continue down, I sold my puts early Friday after the open but, I reloaded them later.
I hope it retraces to the 50 or 61.8%.

[fehro]

Scott Redler ‏@RedDogT3:
What's after Brexit?
Grexit! Departugal! Italeave! Fruckoff! Czechout! Oustria! Finish! Slovakout! Latervia! Byegium!

London (CNN)From Brexit to #Regrexit -- an online petition demanding a second referendum on Britain's decision to leave the EU has passed 3 million signatures.
By Sunday morning, 3,048,000 people had signed the petition on the official UK Parliament website. That number takes it well over the 100,000-signature threshold needed to force a debate on the issue by members of Parliament….

http://www.cnn.com/2016/06/25/politics/ ... index.html One thing for sure.. -xit words are trending up going parabolic

Still looking of a possible 200d tag retest of the Thursday night lows. early next week.. mon or tues. then maybe drift up for EOW,EOM, EOQ, long weekend next weekend.. "usually" bullish.

When Futures open.. will see.