So everyone on the net is hyperventilating about the “massive” rally and how it has to mean-revert soon, because it is so overbought, and everyone is worried that PEOTUS will eventually kick a kitten and put the kibosh on the jump.
A sober look at the WEEKLY shows that we’ve only had 3 (three) WEEKLY bull bars so far. That’s quite modest when you look at the bull runs of the recent past, like the bull run of last December, then the run off the February lows, then the June/July bull run… count the bars… just count ‘em … it looks like the market can handle at least 6 (six) WEEKLY bull bars, and likely more…
Hence a pullback next week, as long as it’s not too deep, should be a buy opportunity, then a resumption of the rally could eventually see target 228 SPY, which would be at ROUGHLY the top of the uptrend channel.
In two weeks, 12/14, the Fed will raise rates, but I think that consensus is already baked into current prices, and we’ll burn that bridge when we come to it.
For those managed portfolios (rich people/institutions) who rebalance monthly, the difference between the SPX gains and bond losses is so great, that they will need to sell plenty of stocks and buy plenty of bonds to realign the balance this month (Wednesday is EOM). However, I believe that most managed accounts contractually require only quarterly rebalancing, which will be an issue at year end.