12/02/2016 Live Update

[BullBear52x]

update on mid term.

187.5 not 78.5

[BullBear52x]

Just checking in. When I haven't been slammed with things to do, I have been knocked down by some sort of bug that put me out. I never got really sick but I lost all energy and could barely function. I woke up in the middle of the night the other night and realized I felt better. I have no idea what caused it.

Anyway, I still hold my large short at 2190. Looks better now than over the weekend! I'll be here sporadically while I catch up on things.

I know how that feel, I got hit few weeks ago. it turned out I was low on alcohol blood level

[Shaishen]

The Italian vote is well known, so it should not suprise the market, but the Brexit vote and US election were also well known

3rd time is a charm so they say..since everybody is aware of the anti outcome brexit and DJT the expected (NO) will actually happen.

-

[Daniel]

Bears be cautious-- JNK, USO, XLE, IBB all at or near hod.

This is not market-bearish.

[Daniel]

I know how that feel, I got hit few weeks ago. it turned out I was low on alcohol blood level

And also make sure you keep up a healthy blood level of salty snacks, to balance the electrolytes!

[fehro]

SPX possible invs H&S 5m.. but iffy.. argument for both sides.. VIX on support

[Mr. BachNut]

Friday BachNut time.

The NYMO cycle is down but unconfirmed.
Yesterday's close below zero helps, but I would like to see a more robust lower high lower low pattern.
Moves to the zero line can be corrective, and if so, bulls could regroup around here. In any case, a bounce here would be normal.
All that said, my sense is that the November 22 NYMO high will stick and that any rally will be part of a down cycle.

Price closed the November 25th gap and made a little double top at month end before turning down.
It looks like it found some support on a little internal trend line (thin red) yesterday.
If that little line and yesterday's low break, I think price could find my first possible target at the SPX 2181.90 gap from 11/18.
We shall see. Doesn't have to happen.

I am short.
As noted in Tuesday's post, I was looking for a retest of the high/gap closure with a negative NYMO divergence.
That came with month end, and I sold it.
Breakeven stop is on now. I'll take a scale at my first target if it comes.
I may also take one at the close if the target is not hit today, given the Italy referendum thing, with a view to reload after the event depending on what happens.

My chart is a bit cluttered and noisy today because I added some things to make some observations. I'll clean it up next week.
There is a note pointing out the flattish lumpy upper keltner band. In healthy bulls the upper keltner tends to have a clean upward slope. What we have here is more aligned with a topping process.
There is also a note pointing out that the oscillator did not break into the upper turn zone on this price thrust. Kick-off moves to big bull thrusts typically bust into the zone. So, it suggests not getting to excited about this rally being the start of a big move.
Lastly, I added two magenta lines suggesting a possible broadening top. It is a little unorthodox, but it is a possibility. It is important to note there is room in the pattern for SPX to make new highs, hit my last up target and push up the upper boundary.
My view is that if in due course price pulls back and then fails to make a fresh all time high, the bear dance may begin. I'll also be watching the 50 and 200 day MAs.
This is not a prediction, and I want to avoid bias, but the point is there is stuff in the chart that does not align well with the sharp price action we have had since the election. We may have an interesting 2017.

Happy Friday all.

[Out of Bounds]

Lines for today

[Trades with cats]

I know how that feel, I got hit few weeks ago. it turned out I was low on alcohol blood level

And also make sure you keep up a healthy blood level of salty snacks, to balance the electrolytes!

I think the best way to stay healthy over the holidays is to stay away from Grandchildren that are in daycare! Don't ask me how I know.

[fehro]

Just checking in. When I haven't been slammed with things to do, I have been knocked down by some sort of bug that put me out. I never got really sick but I lost all energy and could barely function. I woke up in the middle of the night the other night and realized I felt better. I have no idea what caused it.

Anyway, I still hold my large short at 2190. Looks better now than over the weekend! I'll be here sporadically while I catch up on things.

I know how that feel, I got hit few weeks ago. it turned out I was low on alcohol blood level

I know the feeling

[Cobra]

possible 3 push up. just a warning, not serious yet.

[DellGriffith]

Daily SPY

As is customary I got a buy signal on my morning commute. Already bot and it cashed out. Done for the day.

[BullBear52x]

lots of love here.

[fehro]

SPX not a convincing move up… a slow grind up.. not exactly bullish..

[BullBear52x]

out, wait for new buy setup.

[BullBear52x]

Clockworks,

[fehro]

SPX not a convincing move up… a slow grind up.. not exactly bullish..

SPX hourly iffy.. inv hammer /gravestone 10m to go at resistance

[te_fern]

Al_Dente, noticed that RVX moved back below the 10 EMA on the daily chart. Would that normally imply a buy?

[BullBear52x]

Due to the importance resistance (good bye kiss junction) next buy need to push to new HOD no break allowed because the die-hard bears can smell a blood right now.

[BullBear52x]

RUT. 1321 is key, no buy below this line in the sand for me.