12/07/2016 Live Update

[Cobra]

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still 50% chances of double top, wait and see.

[Cobra]

members only update starts here: http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2016/12 ... ay-update/

[fehro]

SPX gapping down to 2210ish.. mind the morning gap.. SPX at resistance of sort still. Mind Monday's open gap 2193-2200

[fehro]

/CL mind the 50d 48.12 yellow left chart.. H&S target zone

[johnnywa]

Go long,follow DAX.No double top in sight

[JFR]

Chopping around ...

[Trades with cats]

Oil- Now that the media narrative has herded all the specs to the long side of the boat it has suddenly changed and you are hard pressed to read anything positive about oil. Well we need to get real. Clipper Data shows us a record flood of crude coming out of OPEC and hitting the world so we should see some pretty big storage numbers as that stuff gets unloaded. It is the time of year when demand drops and we are told the Saudis normally cut production by 500,000 barrels a day. It is also the end of EPA mandated summer blend (20 different ones) gasoline so every refinery with access to tankers can sell in the US market.

API showed a monster build in Cushing but nothing even close elsewhere. We will soon know if the DOE shows similar results. Then we have the meeting with Russia this weekend. No matter what the deal actually is all parties are strongly motivated to use media access to put upward pressure on prices to counter the negative inventory and production numbers.

I am far from the first to figure out that the IPO of Saudi ARAMCO stock to western investors is the grand prize and the kingdom will do what ever it can to get the numbers by this summer. The opportunity is between then and now for the quick and nimble.

[fehro]

SPX no morning gap fill NDX under serious pressure..

[fehro]

INDEX dailies.. SPX possible double top.. INDU green, NDX red near LOW

[uempel]

Looking at daily SPX:

[Cobra]

members only update at 10:03 am
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2016/12 ... ay-update/

[johnnywa]

Lows in go long for daily scalp,rinse and repeat

[Trades with cats]

Serious charts
https://rbnenergy.com/is-this-the-real- ... its-impact

[johnnywa]

These days 1st 30 minutes red,next 6 hours green.

[fehro]

SPX morning gap fill.. VIX nLOW

[daytradingES]

EIA Petroleum Status Report
Released On 12/7/2016 10:30:00 AM For wk12/2, 2016
Prior
Crude oil inventories (weekly change) -0.9 M barrels
Gasoline (weekly change) 2.1 M barrels
Distillates (weekly change) 5.0 M barrels

(not sure why 10:30am release and is currently posted?)
http://mam.econoday.com/byshoweventfull ... ek.asp#top

[daytradingES]

7:28 AM 12/7/2016 Wednesday clippings
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"Oil markets are on track to tighten over 2017, which will be accelerated by OPEC's decision to reduce production alongside non-OPEC countries," said BMI Research. "If effectively implemented, we expect the global oil market will return to balance in Q1 2017."

Oil production has been outpacing consumption by 1 to 2 million barrels per day since late 2014.

"The average annual oil price will be higher in 2017 than in 2016, with Brent at $55 per barrel for the year," BMI Research said. The average 2016 Brent price has so far been $44.47 per barrel.

StreetInsider.com
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LONDON (Reuters) - The dollar edged back up toward a 10-month high against the yen on Wednesday, while most major currencies appeared to be looking ahead to Thursday's European Central Bank policy meeting.

The ECB is widely expected to announce an extension to its quantitative easing program, but there is uncertainty over whether the size of the monthly asset purchases will be kept steady or scaled back, and over whether a formal signal on the eventual end of the asset-purchase program will be sent.

If the ECB does say it will start to scale back its asset purchases - so-called tapering - the euro would be likely to rebound following a 4 percent fall against the dollar over the past month, analysts said.

On Wednesday it edged up 0.1 percent to $1.0724. The European currency had slumped on Monday to $1.0505, its lowest since March 2015, in a knee-jerk reaction after Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi lost a referendum on constitutional reform and said he would resign.

"The Fed is hiking rates, the ECB might extend the duration of its program... but the next big thing is going to be tapering," said Marten. "There's a general move away from adding onto expansionary measures. So the central banks that continue to signal that they are willing to do that stand out."

Against a basket of currencies, the dollar was flat at 100.50 .DXY>, having poked above 102.00 to a 13-1/2-year in late November as U.S. Treasury yields soared on prospects of president-elect Donald Trump adopting large fiscal spending and reflationary policies.

"There are not many factors for the market to trade on ahead of Thursday's ECB meeting, which remains the week's focal point," said Junichi Ishikawa, senior FX strategist at IG Securities in Tokyo. "It could spell the beginning of the end of the Trump rally."

The Canadian dollar was flat ahead of a Bank of Canada policy meeting that is expected to see interest rates left unchanged .

For Reuters new Live Markets blog on European and UK stock markets see reuters://realtime/verb=Open/url=http://emea1.apps.cp.extranet.thomsonre ... ivemarkets

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[JFR]

Whoosh. Taking a break.

[fehro]

SPX nears ATH 2214.10 0.50 short as NDX, IWM red.. VIX nLOW

[daytradingES]

"Oil production has been outpacing consumption by 1 to 2 million barrels per day since late 2014."

if this is the case then you have 2 years or 1.5* 730
1095 million barrels of surplus stored ==> 1 billion

IF Opec cuts their production (and Nigeria and others are exempt) then the net is probably a wash - ie no reduction from record high levels.
To get rid of 1 billion barrels you are going to need some meaningful reductions and/or increases in demand -- seems the movements are all Saudis playing the rumour mill and trading behind the scenes.