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12/31/2016 Holiday Update

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Cobra
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12/31/2016 Holiday Update

Post by Cobra »

Happy new year everyone!

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Cobra
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Re: 12/31/2016 Holiday Update

Post by Cobra »

Smart money shorted a little but the short is not extreme yet therefore should still be some up rooms.


How I use the chart:

I don't care what's the logic behind the chart. I found it works in the following two cases:

1.) When market up huge, if I see smart money huge short, best if new record short, then I know a short-term pullback is due soon.
2.) When market down, if I see smart money suddenly rises sharply from very negative value, then I know the pullback was over.

So I only use this chart for the above 2 cases. Besides those 2 cases, it means nothing to me. i.e. the absolute value of this chart means nothing to me, I only care if it rises sharply or drops sharply.
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NASDAQ 100 Combo Hedgers Position.png

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Cobra
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Re: 12/31/2016 Holiday Update

Post by Cobra »

summary of the week's stock picks:
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=2306&p=235014#p235014
The next week can use almost the same list...

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Cobra
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Re: 12/31/2016 Holiday Update

Post by Cobra »

don't forget our weekly sentiment poll here: viewtopic.php?f=9&t=2312

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Al_Dente
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Re: 12/31/2016 Holiday Update

Post by Al_Dente »

For the first time this year, technology companies at times held each of the top five spots of the world's most valuable public companies. The combined market value of Tech's Fab Five (in order of market cap): AAPL, GOOG, MSFT, AMZN, FB, was $2.4 trillion as of Dec. 27, or more than 11 percent of the S&P 500's value. That means tech superpowers are inching toward the 16 percent share of the S&P 500 they held at the peak of the tech bubble in March 2000.
[source: top chart is mine, everything else is from Bloomberg]
1230agmaf.png.png
1230aapl rev.png.png
Disclaimer: I am not an investment advisor. This is just my opinion NOT investment advice.
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Al_Dente
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Re: 12/31/2016 Holiday Update

Post by Al_Dente »

For almost two years, the market has ignored the classic fundamentals (GAAP EPS), and levitated higher on QE and FED fumes.
Now it looks like we are starting an “organic” earnings increase, which encouraged the FED to raise rates.
I suppose the idea is that earnings should continue their increase, allowing the market to rely once again on fundamentals, as the FED ends their dominance of monetary policy, and allows fiscal policy to carry the burden for a change.
We’ll see how that works out, oy.
This Rosenberg article is two weeks old but should be read in that context.
"If we get an earnings profile more befitting of a late-cycle backdrop, it is tough to get an estimate for the S&P above 1,950."
“Fade the rally”
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-12-1 ... -deflation
12_30eps.png.png
Disclaimer: I am not an investment advisor. This is just my opinion NOT investment advice.
fehro
Posts: 22880
Joined: Fri Sep 02, 2011 2:06 pm

Re: 12/31/2016 Holiday Update

Post by fehro »

A cornucopia of candles for the year end. :roll: :lol: Yearly, Quarterly, Monthly, Weekly and daily.
Dailies, Weeklies Indexes look weak, with Monthly toppy. TLT & GLD Yearly / Quarterly looks ugly.
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Daily
Daily
Weekly
Weekly
Monthly
Monthly
Quarterly
Quarterly
Yearly
Yearly
fehro
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Re: 12/31/2016 Holiday Update

Post by fehro »

Industry indexes % Weeklies
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Screen Shot 2016-12-31 at 12.13.54 PM.png
fehro
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Re: 12/31/2016 Holiday Update

Post by fehro »

T2 http://www.worden.com/TeleChartHelp/Con ... rs_T2s.htm
Swing buy/sell indicators rolling over to sell side.
Attachments
Screen Shot 2016-12-31 at 12.14.31 PM.png
fehro
Posts: 22880
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Re: 12/31/2016 Holiday Update

Post by fehro »

T2 Channels % Stocks 1+2 Channels ><200d Weekly ><40d Daily
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Screen Shot 2016-12-31 at 12.15.12 PM.png
fehro
Posts: 22880
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Re: 12/31/2016 Holiday Update

Post by fehro »

Yields
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Screen Shot 2016-12-31 at 12.44.12 PM.png
fehro
Posts: 22880
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Re: 12/31/2016 Holiday Update

Post by fehro »

Yields v2.0

Top row Monthly,
Bottom row W/D mix.
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Screen Shot 2016-12-31 at 1.00.29 PM.png
fehro
Posts: 22880
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Re: 12/31/2016 Holiday Update

Post by fehro »

SPX long long term fwiw.
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Screen Shot 2016-12-31 at 1.37.36 PM.png
daytradingES
Posts: 2245
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Re: 12/31/2016 Holiday Update

Post by daytradingES »

HI!

I'd like to poll all the bright lights out their (that is all of you since you visit Cobra's!) and get your
HELP
with something.

Background:
I collect data for each trading day including H/L/O/C
In one of my spreadsheets this data is summed for the week : so open for the week (Monday's open), the high of the week (HOW), the low of the week (LOW) and the close of the week (Friday's close).

Now it occurred to me that I could also compute the minimum high of five days (LHW), and the maximum low of the five days (HLW).

Now I think that the spread between the LHW and HLW compared to the the spread between the HOW and LOW, when taken in conjunction with the O to C will be predictive of next week.

But I'm not sure how
Any ideas?

Attached is a chart prior to last week
(the chart has o/n lines at the beginning of each day just ignore those orange boxed points Mon and Tues shown - ditto Wed. Thurs, Fri)
Attachments
swing for week 395
swing for week 395
Educational only and not trading advice (EO&NTA) :)
Good trading to all
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BullBear52x
Posts: 29514
Joined: Tue Feb 22, 2011 3:47 pm

Re: 12/31/2016 Holiday Update

Post by BullBear52x »

daytradingES wrote:HI!

I'd like to poll all the bright lights out their (that is all of you since you visit Cobra's!) and get your
HELP
with something.

Background:
I collect data for each trading day including H/L/O/C
In one of my spreadsheets this data is summed for the week : so open for the week (Monday's open), the high of the week (HOW), the low of the week (LOW) and the close of the week (Friday's close).

Now it occurred to me that I could also compute the minimum high of five days (LHW), and the maximum low of the five days (HLW).

Now I think that the spread between the LHW and HLW compared to the the spread between the HOW and LOW, when taken in conjunction with the O to C will be predictive of next week.

But I'm not sure how
Any ideas?

Attached is a chart prior to last week
(the chart has o/n lines at the beginning of each day just ignore those orange boxed points Mon and Tues shown - ditto Wed. Thurs, Fri)
How do you use the average of numbers as a predictive? some sort of special derivative or standard? just curious.
My comments are for entertainment/educational purpose only. NOT a trade advice.
User avatar
BullBear52x
Posts: 29514
Joined: Tue Feb 22, 2011 3:47 pm

Re: 12/31/2016 Holiday Update

Post by BullBear52x »

It is what it is department:
2240 is key pivot tomorrow.
Attachments
1.PNG
My comments are for entertainment/educational purpose only. NOT a trade advice.
daytradingES
Posts: 2245
Joined: Thu Sep 13, 2012 10:46 am

Re: 12/31/2016 Holiday Update

Post by daytradingES »

BullBear52x wrote:
daytradingES wrote:HI!

I'd like to poll all the bright lights out their (that is all of you since you visit Cobra's!) and get your
HELP
with something.

Background:
I collect data for each trading day including H/L/O/C
In one of my spreadsheets this data is summed for the week : so open for the week (Monday's open), the high of the week (HOW), the low of the week (LOW) and the close of the week (Friday's close).

Now it occurred to me that I could also compute the minimum high of five days (LHW), and the maximum low of the five days (HLW).

Now I think that the spread between the LHW and HLW compared to the the spread between the HOW and LOW, when taken in conjunction with the O to C will be predictive of next week.

But I'm not sure how
Any ideas?

Attached is a chart prior to last week
(the chart has o/n lines at the beginning of each day just ignore those orange boxed points Mon and Tues shown - ditto Wed. Thurs, Fri)
How do you use the average of numbers as a predictive? some sort of special derivative or standard? just curious.
I'm not sure on your question. I don't use average numbers as predictive .

The chart show for week 395 I have added two lines, the red is the highest of the 5 LODs of the week (which was Tuesday 2262.50 LOD), the green line is the lowest HOD of the week (which was Friday's HOD ).
Educational only and not trading advice (EO&NTA) :)
Good trading to all
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