01/28/2017 Weekend Update

[Cobra]

Smart money not extremely short yet so should still be some up rooms.


How I use the chart:

I don't care what's the logic behind the chart. I found it works in the following two cases:

1.) When market up huge, if I see smart money huge short, best if new record short, then I know a short-term pullback is due soon.
2.) When market down, if I see smart money suddenly rises sharply from very negative value, then I know the pullback was over.

So I only use this chart for the above 2 cases. Besides those 2 cases, it means nothing to me. i.e. the absolute value of this chart means nothing to me, I only care if it rises sharply or drops sharply.

[Cobra]

don't forget our weekly sentiment poll here: viewtopic.php?f=9&t=2341

[Cobra]

No stock picks for the next week. Scan fond 302 candidates, not bad, I just cannot find one with the pattern I want.
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=2343

[nikman]

Cobra, the short interest is exactly at the same level as August 2015 and December 2015. So maybe things can start to happen next week right after the Fed announcement?

Sent from my SM-G920T using Tapatalk

[Cobra]

Cobra, the short interest is exactly at the same level as August 2015 and December 2015. So maybe things can start to happen next week right after the Fed announcement?

Sent from my SM-G920T using Tapatalk

Well, hopefully.

[uempel]

SPX daily time signals on the x-axis - for Mr. BachNut.

[Trades with cats]

Black Gold- A knowledgeable sounding commentator said this week's DOE inventory was the first normal looking report in several weeks, i.e. the European North American winter holiday disruptions are behind us.

Of course here we go with Asian new year but all those ripples in market price caused by gasoline coming out of China takes a while to hit Rotterdam and the Gulf so the holiday disruptions will be seen later.

Fundamentals are clearer to see this week and nothing has changed, they are clearly bad. More of everything in storage, higher production and much higher prices. Demand is not moving much.

Market narrative has gotten slightly more bullish. Two weeks ago it seemed all we read was how OPEC cheats. This week it was about how the successful people (hedge funds) are adding to their long side bets, tempered by reports on Libyan production increasing along with late week stories on US shale. John Kemp at Kemp Energy who does easy to read charts says that the funds actually cut longs by 7 million barrels, leaving a net 74 million barrel exposure. This is worth watching as we all know how fast a panic stampede for the exits can happen.

Future has a known component, the seasonal production cycle. Refineries will be slowing their run rates shutting down and converting to summer blend as the weather changes across the country. Mid March is when they crank it up and we start drawing down inventory. So that is the time frame when OPEC will have to stand firm.

Nat Gas- Apparently some of the funds who are dabbling in oil have discovered the "Widow Maker" trade. Multi-year charts have shown that storage is back to the middle of the five year range, but gas rigs are going back to work. For the next two months this market should be driven by the Jet Stream's interactions with the Arctic Oscillator.

[daytradingES]

It seems that once again there were bad numbers on Wednesday and once again the price was mysteriously ramped UP not DOWN.

Let's see what Monday brings - watching $51.80 for that line to break before I start seeing a downmove begin

[uempel]

Will executive orders have an Impact on technology next week?

FT writes on Sunday:

Silicon Valley dismayed as Muslim ban hits tech sector

Google, Microsoft and Uber among companies criticising measure and warning of impact



Donald Trump’s ban on Muslim immigrants has provoked sharp criticism from US corporations, pitching the US president into an epic clash over US values and the legality of the new measures just one week into his presidency.

A growing chorus of condemnation rose from the tech sector on Saturday, with companies including Google, Microsoft and Uber issuing statements of concern over the new policy. The founders of many of Silicon Valley’s most prominent companies have family ties to the countries singled out by Mr Trump’s order, including the late Steve Jobs, the Apple co-founder whose biological father was a Syrian refugee.

Tim Cook, chief executive of Apple, wrote in a memo to staff, that was obtained by the FT, that the ban was “not a policy we [Apple] support” and the company “reached out to the White House to explain the negative effect on our co-workers and our company”.
"Apple is open. Open to everyone, no matter where they come from, which language they speak, who they love or how they worship," Mr Cook wrote.

Uber chief executive Travis Kalanick said the order would affect around a dozen Uber employees as well as thousands of Uber drivers. The company said it would compensate "pro-bono" those drivers who found themselves out of the country when the ban took effect and would thus spend the next 90 days unable "to earn a living and support their families".

Mr Kalanick said he believed the ban would "impact many innocent people" and planned to tell Mr Trump as much when he, and other members of Mr Trump's business advisory board, meet the president in Washington next Friday.

At the same time, Microsoft said it was “actively working to provide legal advice and assistance” to its employees from listed countries, pointing out that all of them were in the US legally. Airbnb’s chief executive also criticised the move. “Closing doors further divides US,” Brian Chesky said via tweet. “Let’s all find ways to connect people, not separate them.”

Tech companies say that Mr Trump’s immigration policies are already undercutting their ability to recruit and retain engineering talent from overseas. Amit Kumar, chief executive of software company Trimian, told the FT that many start-ups are increasing the size of their branch offices outside the US as a result.“The shift was immediate, it was dramatic, people are thinking what is the right county to base their operations in,” Mr Kumar said. “I see that across the board.” Many foreign-born tech workers, even those who have become US citizens, are grappling with the shift in immigration policies. “It doesn’t seem like we are as welcome as we were the day before,” Mr Kumar added.

Google, which has urged some staff travelling overseas to return immediately, criticised the programme and pledged to raise its concerns with politicians inWashington. “We’re concerned about the impact of this order and any proposals that could impose restrictions on Googlers and their families, or that could create barriers to bringing great talent to the US,” the company said.

Mark Zuckerberg, the founder of Facebook, on Friday also challenged the programme. “We need to keep this country safe, but we should do that by focusing on people who actually pose a threat,” Mr Zuckerberg said in a Facebook post.

“Expanding the focus of law enforcement beyond people who are real threats would make all Americans less safe by diverting resources, while millions of undocumented folks who don’t pose a threat will live in fear of deportation,” Mr Zuckerberg said.

He was followed on the weekend by Reed Hastings, chief executive of Netflix, and Elon Musk, the Tesla and SpaceX founder who serves on Mr Trump's economic advisory group, in condemning the ban.

"Trump's actions are hurting Netflix employees around the world, and are so un-American it pains us all," Mr Hastings wrote on Facebook. "Worse, these actions will make America less safe (through hatred and loss of allies) rather than more safe."

Mr Musk said: “Many people negatively affected by this policy are strong supporters of the US. They've done right,not wrong & don't deserve to be rejected . . . The blanket entry ban on citizens from certain primarily Muslim countries is not the best way to address the country’s challenges.”

The executive order is the latest example of a move by Mr Trump that could impact US companies, but places the groups that do not want to antagonise him in a bind. Delta Airlines, American Airlines, GM, Chrysler, Caterpillar, Citigroup, Bank of America and Pfizer all declined to comment. United Airlines said it was working with the government to comply with the order, while T-Mobile US said it did not yet "have enough information" to say how many of its staff, if any, had been affected.

Corporations were not the only groups to speak out against the ban. Foreign leaders, including Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, French President Francois Hollande, and the Iranian foreign ministry also condemned Mr Trump’s move, as did many Democrats and some Republicans. “The kind of discourse now coming from the US encourages populism, and even extremism,” Mr Hollande declared at a meeting of southern European leaders in Lisbon on Saturday.

Senior Democrats in Congress were quick to attack the ban, which was a key part of Mr Trump’s campaign platform, but which many believed would not go into effect.

Nancy Pelosi, the House minority leader, said: “As the Statue of Liberty holds her torch of welcome high, there are tears in her eyes as she sees how low this administration has stooped in its callousness toward mothers and children escaping war-torn Syria. This administration has mistaken cruelty for strength and prejudice for strategy.”

Jerrold Nadler, the Democratic congressman from New York, called the ban “discriminatory” and “disgusting”, while taking part in a protest outside JFK airport on Saturday.

Senator Ben Sasse, a Republican from Nebraska, also criticised the ban, calling the order "too broad". "If we send a signal to the Middle East that the US sees all Muslims as jihadis, the terrorist recruiters win by telling kids that America is banning Muslims and that this is America versus one religion," he said.

In a statement, House speaker Paul Ryan, a Republican, said he supported Mr Trump’s move.“We are a compassionate nation, and I support the refugee resettlement program, but it’s time to reevaluate and strengthen the visa vetting process . . . President Trump is right to make sure we are doing everything possible to know exactly who is entering our country,” Mr Ryan said.

One congressional aide pushed against suggestions that the order was far-reaching.

“This order does not affect the vast majority of Muslims in the world. It does not affect a large number of nations that are Muslim-majority,” said the aide. “The visa suspension is focused only on those nations where terrorism is a particular concern.”

Yet even Dick Cheney, the former vice president and a staunch conservative, has previously criticised the ban, saying it “goes against everything we stand for and believe in”.

Reporting by Courtney Weaver and Demetri Sevastopulo in Washington, Leslie Hook and Hannah Kuchler in San Francisco, David Crow and Alistair Gray in New York, Patti Waldmeir in Chicago and Anne-Sylvaine Chassany in Paris

[TraderJoe]

Countries where Trump does business are not hit by new travel restrictions;

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics ... 02c98f4e86

[brokebybernacke2]

Black Gold- A knowledgeable sounding commentator said this week's DOE inventory was the first normal looking report in several weeks, i.e. the European North American winter holiday disruptions are behind us.

Of course here we go with Asian new year but all those ripples in market price caused by gasoline coming out of China takes a while to hit Rotterdam and the Gulf so the holiday disruptions will be seen later.

Fundamentals are clearer to see this week and nothing has changed, they are clearly bad. More of everything in storage, higher production and much higher prices. Demand is not moving much.

Market narrative has gotten slightly more bullish. Two weeks ago it seemed all we read was how OPEC cheats. This week it was about how the successful people (hedge funds) are adding to their long side bets, tempered by reports on Libyan production increasing along with late week stories on US shale. John Kemp at Kemp Energy who does easy to read charts says that the funds actually cut longs by 7 million barrels, leaving a net 74 million barrel exposure. This is worth watching as we all know how fast a panic stampede for the exits can happen.

Future has a known component, the seasonal production cycle. Refineries will be slowing their run rates shutting down and converting to summer blend as the weather changes across the country. Mid March is when they crank it up and we start drawing down inventory. So that is the time frame when OPEC will have to stand firm.

Nat Gas- Apparently some of the funds who are dabbling in oil have discovered the "Widow Maker" trade. Multi-year charts have shown that storage is back to the middle of the five year range, but gas rigs are going back to work. For the next two months this market should be driven by the Jet Stream's interactions with the Arctic Oscillator.

Interesting times, lots of Octopus (pi?) in that White House....fiscal/political uncertainty cover for the fed to pause for longer? intermediate term, good for stocks and bonds, everyone happy for a bit longer...

In the past, central banks including the U.S. Fed would respond to falling oil prices with a cut in interest rates, spurring economic growth. Now, with interest rates near zero, central banks have no firepower left. Falling oil prices is causing some deflationary pressure as a result (falling asset values), and the lack of an interest rate cut means that the real interest rate is actually higher, dampening growth. As a result, the IMF economists argue that the reverse will also be true: a rise in oil prices will push up asset prices, and if central banks hold off on interest rate increases, the effect could be positive for growth.

[Al_Dente]

A cursory glance at the WEEKLY Elder bars shows where the strength is.
QQQ stands out with four contiguous green bars, and four new highs, weekly.

[Al_Dente]

Insider selling is extreme
“… companies that filed with the SEC through last Wednesday.”
http://www.barrons.com/public/page/9_0210-instrans.html

[Trades with cats]

Amidst all the political wailing or cheering and the addiction of emotions (lets hear it for dopamine and adrenaline addiction) as traders our job depends on walking away from all that and looking at what is happening through the lens of history to put things in perspective. And that is of course what the "Stock Traders Almanac" is all about. A long winded way of saying that so far President Trump is mediocre when measured by the markets compared to every office holder since 1950.
http://68.media.tumblr.com/0990daa93cf7 ... pr_500.jpg full article http://jeffhirsch.tumblr.com/post/15645 ... istrations

[Al_Dente]

Keep an eye on $BPSPX.
Participation is starting to wane again, and my setting on the 60min moved to down on Friday, for the first time since Nov 7.
It could easily flip-flop in the ensuing days, but it needs attention.

[superxy]

Keep an eye on $BPSPX.
Participation is starting to wane again, and my setting on the 60min moved to down on Friday, for the first time since Nov 7.
It could easily flip-flop in the ensuing days, but it needs attention.

129bpspx.png.png

Why use EMA 89? Just curious.

[Al_Dente]

Keep an eye on $BPSPX. ...

Why use EMA 89? Just curious.

I use whatever works.
Also $BPSPX Renko is on a sell