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Fed holds rates unchanged, repeats inflation seen rising to 2%
Fed: labor mkt strengthened, activity rising moderately
Fed: job gains have been solid, unemployment has declined
Fed: household spending, fixed investment continued to expand
Fed: overall and core inflation declined, are running below 2%
Fed repeats mkt-based inflation compensation gauges remain low
Fed repeats survey-based inflation measures little changed
Fed repeats inflation to stay ‘somewhat below’ 2% in near term
Fed repeats risks to outlook appear ‘roughly balanced’
Disclaimer: I am not an investment advisor. This is just my opinion NOT investment advice.
from twitter-
Citi "Judging by USD’s inability to rally one might conclude that the market sees this as similar enough to June with a slight dovish tweak"
1. We haven't had a 5% correction in 2017.
2. The period from the election to today is the biggest bull run in US history (no corrections for 9 months).
VIX is just reflecting that.
bearish as of SPY 406 on 2/17/23
currently: end bearish as of SPY 406 on 3/6/23
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Trades with cats wrote:energy-http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=ENERGY&p=m5
DOE inventory confirmed API major draw. Fundamentals are aligned for more of this into August.
1. US refiners are running at record levels moving significantly more crude than last year and exporting it. So they have moved beyond the constraints of US demand.
2. It is the hot season in the middle east, their populations have increased significantly as has the amount of air conditioning. They burn crude oil to power their generators. They flat out do not have it to ship at this point in the annual weather cycle.
3. Venezuela
4. Hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico- Can shut down the LOOP or Huston as well as shut ins on platforms. If tankers are stopped in both directions for a day or two who knows what the weekly numbers will look like.
BUT- at what price point do the shale drillers start flooding the market? According to popular media they have not sold enough 2018 to cover their bank payments so you know they are under pressure from the Dallas Fed to do so.