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11/16/2017 Live Update

11/16/2017 Live Update

Postby Cobra » Thu Nov 16, 2017 10:25 am

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the rebound may have small legs at least.
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Re: 11/16/2017 Live Update

Postby Cobra » Thu Nov 16, 2017 10:28 am


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Re: 11/16/2017 Live Update

Postby Daniel » Thu Nov 16, 2017 10:29 am

Al Dente has recently been highlighting the multi-week woes of the junk bonds.

I've just seen a graphic of the longterm correlation between the ratio of corporate net debt to cashflow (Debt/Cashflow) and high yield bond rates over the years. In every case peaks and troughs matched. Yet this time, the ratio has been rising for months... while, until recently, JNK and HYG had been hovering near highs and their yields near lows.

Perhaps this divergence has begun to unwind, with the correlation now slowly being restored..?

Stocks have shown no signs of a persistent Risk Off mentality--rather, a buy the dip mentality has persisted. So it’s not simply a matter of junk bonds being caught up in a general risk-off rotation.

The ratios of JNK:TLT and JNK:LQD are both near 6-month lows. Rather than being the strongest sub-sector in bondland, HiYield corporate bonds are becoming the weakest.
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Re: 11/16/2017 Live Update

Postby Al_Dente » Thu Nov 16, 2017 10:37 am

note dow stocks
WMT
CSCO
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Re: 11/16/2017 Live Update

Postby Al_Dente » Thu Nov 16, 2017 10:40 am

by my calculation, those two stocks together represent roughly 50 points of the dow's advance
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Re: 11/16/2017 Live Update

Postby Daniel » Thu Nov 16, 2017 10:42 am

GLD, XLP, IWM, biotechs, homebuilders hod

XLB, Latin America, VXN lod

No obvious correlations there...
Last edited by Daniel on Thu Nov 16, 2017 10:48 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 11/16/2017 Live Update

Postby Trades with cats » Thu Nov 16, 2017 10:42 am

ES 12-17 (1000 Tick) 2017_11_16.png
Wow, a continuation of the overnight move (2x normal volume) to 2577.50 was expected, but not right out of the opening swing. And where are all the short covering triggers at that level? Well clearly not there after all so down we go. Could be another day full of the unexpected.
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Re: 11/16/2017 Live Update

Postby te_fern » Thu Nov 16, 2017 10:53 am

In the middle of the box, which way now!! As TWC said, expect the unexpected today.....
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Re: 11/16/2017 Live Update

Postby Daniel » Thu Nov 16, 2017 10:59 am

Today, JNK is up a robust 1/2 of 1% on moderately heavy volume.

Naz, IWM, MDY hod. SPY is being held back by its energy component.
Last edited by Daniel on Thu Nov 16, 2017 11:01 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 11/16/2017 Live Update

Postby te_fern » Thu Nov 16, 2017 11:01 am

Can levered smalls sustain the breakout?
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Re: 11/16/2017 Live Update

Postby fehro » Thu Nov 16, 2017 11:02 am

SPX INDU both stall at 20d SMA dabble short SPX
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Re: 11/16/2017 Live Update

Postby Trades with cats » Thu Nov 16, 2017 11:06 am

Trading plan for next year is out at the evil site, Goldman's top 10 trades for 2018. If you recall they will be keeping stats for fading Goldman's recommendations. :twisted:
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Re: 11/16/2017 Live Update

Postby Cobra » Thu Nov 16, 2017 11:07 am


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Re: 11/16/2017 Live Update

Postby Trades with cats » Thu Nov 16, 2017 11:07 am

Ah there's the breakout and the short covering pop.
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Re: 11/16/2017 Live Update

Postby Daniel » Thu Nov 16, 2017 11:10 am

XLY sniffing at a fresh 52-week high.

However, just now, XLF, KRE, and EWG hitting lod...
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Re: 11/16/2017 Live Update

Postby Trades with cats » Thu Nov 16, 2017 11:23 am

ES 12-17 (1000 Tick) 2017_11_16 B.png

I show the overnight to give context to the many twitter posts about the large cash injections of the PBoC. You can easily see that the London/Frankfurt crowd did not advance the market. Of course the New York crowd has moved it on up.
FuturesTrader71 makes note of the overnight volume when it is unusual so I do credit his free morning talk for the 2x normal today and the 3x normal yesterday.
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Re: 11/16/2017 Live Update

Postby te_fern » Thu Nov 16, 2017 11:24 am

Yep, looks like a risk on morning. Let me buy something and I can end it! LOL!!
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Re: 11/16/2017 Live Update

Postby Cobra » Thu Nov 16, 2017 11:25 am

this bull may have legs.
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Re: 11/16/2017 Live Update

Postby Daniel » Thu Nov 16, 2017 11:28 am

SMH, XLY, XRT and multiple other sectors hitting hod here.
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Re: 11/16/2017 Live Update

Postby te_fern » Thu Nov 16, 2017 11:44 am

TICKs steady going higher.....
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