12/26/2017 Live Update

[Al_Dente]

Retail is obviously strong today, holiday weekend was full of Strong Sales news. ...........

note macy's (M) breakout

[Daniel]

...right now junk is underperforming spy and iwm, so credit risk is still a danger (junk hasn’t made a new high since October).

Quick comment: while credit risk is a big component of HiYield price adjustments, these are still BONDS, and they move up and down with the overall bond market.

Which factor--bondoidal nature, or risk of default--is the primary driver at any given time is part of the art of pricing these things. Generally if the economy is strong, and they are not serving as early warnings of recession, their bond-like nature takes over and they correlate with interest rate moves.

This is just the 101 level stuff. I don't know much more than this, and I don't have current correlations at my fingertips. Just a general note about their complexity.

[Al_Dente]

thanks daniel boss

[Daniel]

thanks daniel boss

..de nada

Meanwhile, QQQ is mounting a third try at its HOD..

Update: ..and, rejected. At the HOD, and at the (downslope) 15min 20ema. And the transports have given up their earlier gains, and are now up just a bit on the day. Energy and esp. oil producers are still strong.

[Al_Dente]

AAPL weighting update:
APPL is 3.92% of SPY (AAPL is its heaviest weight. MSFT is #2 at 2.88%), as of 12/22/17
AAPL is 12.15% of QQQ (its heaviest weighted holding), as of 12/22/17
AAPL is 4.87% of the dow (the sixth heaviest weighted stock in the dow), as of 12/23/17

[Al_Dente]

Mohamed A. El-Erian‏ had an interesting take on last week’s bitcoin decline.
OLD: from his 12/23 tweet:
“As expected by most and, yet, it is good to see it confirmed: Recent sharp downturn in Bitcoins prices, including an 8% loss …[on 12/22]… had virtually no notable spillover effects on markets in general– stocks or bonds. In part, reflects limited institutional participation so far”

[Daniel]

SPY has been following its 15min 20ema down impeccably so far today. Repeated rejections. IWM however remains above its (now flat) 15min 20ema.

[Daniel]

Up/Down vol on NYSE is bullish by about 2:1. On Naz, slightly bearish.
NYSE and Naz advancers are low to moderate-- but not far off their HOD.

Amazingly, the above continues the same almost word for word. Only difference is that Naz up/down vol has improved to about 1:1 and there are a few more Naz advancers.

[Al_Dente]

This is aggravating.
The “Santa Rally” expectations forced me to draw an APPROXIMATE target up on INDU
Now it’s knocking on the bottom line of the little box
“There’s no breakout until there’s a breakout” [Al Brooks]

[Al_Dente]

Here’s your breakout, GDX, 60min, and the breakout must hold a backtest

[fehro]

mind descending wedge on SPY 5m, QQQ bear flag 5m

[Al_Dente]

HAPPY HOUR

[brokebybernacke2]

This is aggravating.
The “Santa Rally” expectations forced me to draw an APPROXIMATE target up on INDU
Now it’s knocking on the bottom line of the little box
“There’s no breakout until there’s a breakout” [Al Brooks]

1226indu.png.png

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/12/26/gop-tax ... ashin.html

[brokebybernacke2]

AAPL weighting update:
APPL is 3.92% of SPY (AAPL is its heaviest weight. MSFT is #2 at 2.88%), as of 12/22/17
AAPL is 12.15% of QQQ (its heaviest weighted holding), as of 12/22/17
AAPL is 4.87% of the dow (the sixth heaviest weighted stock in the dow), as of 12/23/17

so goes apple , so goes market, 2things working against it...awfully tough to build on what it has done, tough to raise bar any higher, and personally think last snafu over intentional slowing phone speeds might have bigger effect than expected...pretty good bearish break today with decent volume, triangle forming, maybe beginnings of trouble?...hard to bet against.

[Al_Dente]

thanks brokebybernacke2

[Cobra]

members only update at 3:52 pm
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2017/12 ... ay-update/

[Cobra]

Well, guess that's it for today. Wednesday tomorrow has been bear friendly, down 6 of the last 6, thank you guys, I'll see you tomorrow.

before the close, please take a little time to vote for me, thanks. https://stockcharts.com/public/1684859/tenpp

[johnnywa]

But this Wed could be a Tues on a normal week