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01/02/2018 Live Update

01/02/2018 Live Update

Postby Cobra » Tue Jan 02, 2018 10:23 am

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the rebound shall have legs if not the low was in.
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Re: 01/02/2018 Live Update

Postby Cobra » Tue Jan 02, 2018 10:27 am


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Re: 01/02/2018 Live Update

Postby te_fern » Tue Jan 02, 2018 10:50 am

Back inside the box. Let's see what it can do with it today....
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Re: 01/02/2018 Live Update

Postby te_fern » Tue Jan 02, 2018 11:01 am

TICKs are getting back into the game....
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Re: 01/02/2018 Live Update

Postby te_fern » Tue Jan 02, 2018 11:03 am

After initial spike, VIX is coming back down....
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Re: 01/02/2018 Live Update

Postby Cobra » Tue Jan 02, 2018 11:04 am


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Re: 01/02/2018 Live Update

Postby Cobra » Tue Jan 02, 2018 11:10 am

this bull shall have legs.
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Re: 01/02/2018 Live Update

Postby Al_Dente » Tue Jan 02, 2018 11:13 am

Citi says 40% chance that AAPL buys NFLIX with its repatriated cash
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Re: 01/02/2018 Live Update

Postby Al_Dente » Tue Jan 02, 2018 11:18 am

AD strong bull
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Re: 01/02/2018 Live Update

Postby te_fern » Tue Jan 02, 2018 11:19 am

Al_Dente wrote:AD strong bull
12ad.png.png


Good to see! :D
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Re: 01/02/2018 Live Update

Postby Trades with cats » Tue Jan 02, 2018 11:36 am

ES 03-18 (1100 Tick) 2018_01_02.png

I have separated out the ADX to make it easier to read. It has three colors depending on slope and an ADXR as an extra signal line. The modified True Strength Index is the orange line overlaid on the triple smoothed Kaufman Efficiency Index. The issue I have with the TSI and Efficiency Index is in a choppy market they give a lot of false signals, thus the need for the ADX to gage the strength of a move.
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Re: 01/02/2018 Live Update

Postby Trades with cats » Tue Jan 02, 2018 11:39 am

ES 03-18 (2 BetterRenko(17)) 2018_01_02.png

Same view from Renko land. Those bands are the absolute deviation from the mean price. These are not pure Renko bricks, they are called better Renko as there are no false bars.
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Re: 01/02/2018 Live Update

Postby Trades with cats » Tue Jan 02, 2018 12:14 pm

What I learned from my week on the westside of Los Angeles.
1. Those strange electric BMW boxes are catching on. Honda has billboards up for their all electric 4 door. Did not see any Chevy Bolts but I didn't expect to in the Santa Monica area. Confirms that Tesla 3 has real competition. Had a Tesla store in the mall. Much friendlier than the Beverly Hills Porsche dealership on the corner by my daughter's apartment, but it is BMW and Mercedes who are going to kill Tesla.

2. Killed an hour walking around the Century City upscale shopping mall waiting for our movie at 7:30 on Saturday Night before Christmas. Only store I saw with a line at the cash register was Lush. They make semi-artisan soap and shampoo. Our families gold status frequent flyer uses their hard bar (looks like soap) shampoo because TSA allows you to carry it on. I am going to investigate the stock as this looks like the craft beer of cosmetics.

3. At the same mall they had a Microsoft knock off of the Apple store. Staff was more interested in helping teenagers with 3d video games than with adults looking at computers. Apple has nothing to fear from them.

4. Newly renovated Macy's looked too east coast just didn't fit in. Still thinking of a short after the next earnings report as they are just floundering without a clue. Best Buy and Dillard's both have strategies for the future.
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Re: 01/02/2018 Live Update

Postby Al_Dente » Tue Jan 02, 2018 12:28 pm

Trades with cats wrote:What I learned from my week on the westside of Los Angeles.........

thanks boss
hey WHAT MOVIE did you see ?
also, from schwab last week:
“According to the Mastercard Spending Pulse report, holiday retail sales this year were up +4.9%. That's the biggest year-over-year increase since 2011. The report covers sales activity from Nov. 1 through December 24.
Another firm, Customer Growth Partners, says holiday shoppers spent $598 billion, handily beating last year's $565 billion. Online retail sales surged +18.1% year-over-year with Cyber Monday breaking a spending record with sales jumping +16.8%.
Spending was spread out with electronics and home appliances rising +7.5%, home furniture and furnishings up +5.1% and jewelry sales beating last year's numbers by +5.9%.
… Indications are that spending should continue into 2018….”
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Re: 01/02/2018 Live Update

Postby Al_Dente » Tue Jan 02, 2018 12:47 pm

Hirsch, Almanac, TRIFECTA has three markers for bull/bear:
1) Santa Rally, which is actually the seven-trading day period beginning on the open on December 22 and ending at the close on January 3. This means that by tomorrow’s close (1/3) the SPX must be higher than 2684.22 (which was the open on 12/22) in order to call it BULL. “ A positive Santa Claus Rally is this first step toward a positive January Indicator Trifecta which historically has preceded well above average performance in past midterm years. The failure of stocks to rally during this time tends to precede bear markets or times when stocks could be purchased at lower prices later in the year.”

2) As the S&P goes the first five days in January so goes the year, which means that Monday’s close (1/8, the fifth trading day of the year) must be higher than the open this morning (the first trading day of the year, opened 2683.73 SPX,) in order to call it BULL

3) As the S&P goes in January so goes the year… close on the last day of the month must be higher than today’s open 2683.73
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Re: 01/02/2018 Live Update

Postby Trades with cats » Tue Jan 02, 2018 12:47 pm

Thanks for the spending numbers Boss. That is why I am being patient on a Macy's or other short. I think people spent their tax cut money on holiday gifts. Spring clothing sales will be the tell, along with carmageddon.

My sons in law wanted Star Wars. Watching a big screen in a power recliner was kind of interesting. :D
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Re: 01/02/2018 Live Update

Postby Al_Dente » Tue Jan 02, 2018 12:55 pm

Trades with cats wrote:Thanks for the spending numbers Boss............... :D

here's your spending chart boss :roll:
looks like new high this morn
12visa.png.png
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Re: 01/02/2018 Live Update

Postby Trades with cats » Tue Jan 02, 2018 12:59 pm

My hardcopy almanac makes it clear (page 12). January barometer has .746 correct. 10 of the last 17 midterm election years followed January Barometer. *8 of those 17 followed the first 5 days of January rule.

All sounds good and their chart of first year presidential cycle wasn't that far off for 2017 BUT (here it comes, Harry Truman said 'can;t someone find me a one handed economist") Fed has put on the brakes with their auto pilot balance sheet reduction and the ECB starts decelerating this month when they are supposed to cut their bond purchases in half. Add to the mix ther current dollar funding crisis due to the tax bill repatriation factor and I am thinking better be nimble! I should say that the Fed can use their force to end that dollar crisis with currency swaps if it gets out of hand and really threatens the Treasury Auctions.
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Re: 01/02/2018 Live Update

Postby Cobra » Tue Jan 02, 2018 1:02 pm

pullback should be bought.
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Re: 01/02/2018 Live Update

Postby Al_Dente » Tue Jan 02, 2018 1:05 pm

cats: thanks for the hardcopy almanac data. appreciate that :D
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