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Thanks, good read.Junior Buffett wrote:Everyone is on SPY 3000 train...train is leaving the station...choo chooo...chooooo....all board in!
https://northmantrader.com/2018/01/07/2 ... k/#respond
this bull will have legs I think, until Cobra .. updates his Bernanke profile pic.Cobra wrote:this bull shall still have legs.
I second that..lol...even next chair is about to go out of the door...fehro wrote:this bull will have legs I think, until Cobra .. updates his Bernanke profile pic.Cobra wrote:this bull shall still have legs.
So that's 50/50 chance of BULL or BEAR...not a great barometer I think..dont you think so?Al_Dente wrote:ALMANAC TRIFECTA UPDATE:
STEP 1 = BULL.
STEP 2 = BULL, but note the last sentence highlighted below.
Reference:
Hirsch, Almanac TRIFECTA has three markers for bull/bear:
1) Santa Rally, which is the seven-trading day period beginning on the open on December 22 and ending at the close on January 3. This means that by the 1/3/18 close, the SPX must be higher than 2684.22 (which was the open on 12/22/17) in order to call it BULL. “ A positive Santa Claus Rally is the first step toward a positive January Indicator Trifecta which historically has preceded well above average performance in past midterm years.”
2) As the S&P goes the first five days in January so goes the year, which means that Monday’s close (1/8/18, the fifth trading day of the year) must be higher than the open on 1/2/18 (the first trading day of the year which opened at 2683.73 SPX), in order to call it BULL
3) As the S&P goes in January so goes the year… close of the last day of the month must be higher than the open 2683.73 on 1/2/18
“trades with cats” notes: “My hardcopy almanac makes it clear (page 12).. January barometer has .746 correct. 10 of the last 17 midterm election years followed January Barometer. *8 of those 17 followed the first 5 days of January rule.”
Cobra had to wait out the Yellen era. He couldn't put a Janet Yellen head over his body now could he?fehro wrote:this bull will have legs I think, until Cobra .. updates his Bernanke profile pic.
Damn...I tried..BEARS are DOOOMMEEDDDD again...Trades with cats wrote:Gotta parse page 14 of the Almanac. It is the midterm election years where the first 5 days have a so/so record. In the case of up first five days it is at 83.3% up years, sample size of 42. Of the last 17 midterm election years only 8 followed the first 5 days direction. So it is a very good indicator except for the special case of the midterm election years.
The full month is a bit better with 11 of those 17 midterm years following the January direction.
What is of concern to the bears is that a down January usually precedes a switch from Bull to Bear market. So far every down January since 1950 was followed by a new or continuing bear market, a 10% correction (not in our lifetime!) or a flat year. Average decline was 12.9% and usually provided a good buying opportunity. All on page 22