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3 push up, the current rebound must be strong otherwise we'll see a pullback.
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FT 71 showed the big resting orders at ES 2,700 from yesterday and last night. 1,200 contracts and another 500 just above. Will take a while to chew through those.
Part of the chat this morning was the observation that the market had about 15% of normal order depth but lots of volume as longer time frame traders were in charge. Which is way the very large very fast runs. Bill Bane's morning porridge said it was the hedge funds as most sat on their hands.
Makes reasonable sense to me that the hedge funds were jumping in yesterday. What was unsaid is just how much more do they have to deploy and does yesterday's action change the calculus for the pension and risk parity funds that are supposed to be reducing leverage over the next several days?
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So around 6 am Eastern the market decided time to go with an over 20 point run up to the cash open. A brief pause, then a 28 point run in 15 minutes and now just drifting. If this thing runs out of buyers the middle of the action overnight was around 2683 and if that fails yesterday's value range of 2660 to 2620. Then the 2500's are a real possibility. If the more conservative money managers continue to sit on their hands and leave this to the hedge funds and all us shallow pocket short time frame types.
2/6 NY new lows 479 (bottom zone, possibly just interim bottom)
2/5 NY new lows 452 (Monday, dow down -1178 points). When was the last time we had so many lows? Feb 2016
2/2 NY new lows 338 (Friday, dow down -666 points)
2/1 NY new lows 131
1/31 NY new lows 114
1/30/ NY new lows 251
1/29 NY new lows 204, the warning signal
Disclaimer: I am not an investment advisor. This is just my opinion NOT investment advice.
My software has ES VWAP at 2701.50. My price at volume software has Point of Control at VWAP. Translation, if this doesn't hold we will be exploring the downside. First two micro targets, yesterday's high at 2,700 then bottom of the 70% range on today (value area) 2697.25.