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Indeed. "Expected panic button" is kind of an 'oxymoron'. Esp. w investing, where genuine anticipations get discounted in advance.Al_Dente wrote:...near enough to the expected panic button
What is the reason? Thanksfehro wrote:mind a possible big move down near close.. or sizeable gap down tomorrow.
patterns short term, INDU TRANS <50d SMA, bonds strong, VIXes strongq2model wrote:What is the reason? Thanksfehro wrote:mind a possible big move down near close.. or sizeable gap down tomorrow.
Daniel wrote:Indeed. "Expected panic button" is kind of an 'oxymoron'. Esp. w investing, where genuine anticipations get discounted in advance.Al_Dente wrote:...near enough to the expected panic button
Slow steady rises in rates tend to produce a slow bleeding effect on PEs of stocks--whatever the base level they are rising from. Each investor has their own personal yield level that starts becoming "attractive".
Al_Dente wrote:A few days back, the 10yr Yield hit 2.94% ($TNX 29.43, near enough to the expected 30.00 panic button).
So, as credit tightened, the market crashed.
Oh wait, no it didn’t, sorry, never mind.
So, we watch Yields and get scared by the data on equity outFLOWS, and destructive tweets.
This is known as ‘MISDIRECTION” in “Three-card Monte” and other classic con games.
btw: You/we are “The Mark.”
Keep it real: corporate borrowing costs at 3% are historically low. Pull up a daily chart of $TNX and see as recently as last year 3% yield was not the end of the world.
The reality is that GS (and other majors) know ON A DAILY BASIS how active their Buyback Desk is, and I surmise that it’s much more lucrative than their Trading Desk, so they keep it opaque, and only disclose it after the fact, every once in a rare while….
GS continues to play the Shell Game, with their exotic matrixes and charts and “analysis”.
Now they raise the crisis point from 3% to 4% yield.
Above 4% “… would require substantial Fed tightening from current levels and/or inflation expectations well above the 2% target – would … lead to lower equity valuations.” [GS, Kostin]
Their real view can seldom be found in plain sight, amid all their esoteric bullshit:
“new S&P all time highs imminent.” [GS]