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Greece news is to old. Next week is OPEX.rola wrote:I do not think that Greece will just collapse over weekend, in that case Europe will fall apart, they can not do this because domino effect - for now!
If break through that lower channel of the bear flag that has been forming all the way back since Aug.10, the chances for a major bull rally on Monday go down significantly.proteus46 wrote:
I think we are setting up a major bull rally for Monday. The only requirement is that Greece does not default over the weekend. imo
janez wrote:Why say so?proteus46 wrote:I think we are setting up a major bull rally for Monday. The only requirement is that Greece does not default over the weekend. imo
Maybe the terrorists have now planted a financial bomb in the EU-periphery, which might blow up in a short time...proteus46 wrote:janez wrote:Why say so?proteus46 wrote:I think we are setting up a major bull rally for Monday. The only requirement is that Greece does not default over the weekend. imo
I think there is something to the Patriotic rallies of the past. They are statements to those that are against capitalism.
The recent threats we heard about yesterday, the tenth anniversary, the recent 4% decline in the S&P are all reasons for
some heavy buying. I don't have any technical indicators except that the 60 minute slow stochs are below 20 and we are getting near the
lower BB band (60 minute ) chart. No serious economic data released on Monday.
Thats why Ive been long TMF... and dont get shaken out on moves because I know its a bear flag, and I have yet to see a bear flag after a H+S break up to the upside....BTW the august lows was perfect 38.2% retracement..so if we break that,BullTart wrote:From the weekly view point, the huge tail on the shooting star is a give away. You can bet against it, but that is a low probability chance (look at chart I attached - chart created by Albertarocks but explains what I'm also looking at)
Add the fact that the shooting star tail was rejected by the weekly 80 MA which has decided bull/bear markets in the past 10 years, and you get an even LOWER probability play.
Finally, zoom into daily and hourly views and you quickly see the bear flag which has been in play for the past month.
As I like to say, when three different witnesses all have corroborating stories, it's probably true. It *could* be false, but you are not playing the proper side of the odds game, which is entirely what trading and investing is all about. Probabilities.
Chances are pointing to a break of the bear flag, and red weekly candle next week.
If we get the break of the bear flag today in the closing hours (this I have no idea), we will have a flush down on high volume to retest the Aug lows.
Bottom line: You don't want to be on the wrong side of that action when it happens. If not sure, better to stay in cash and see what happens. If you you want to take some calculated risk, you play a tight short as the rewards of a break flag break are high. However, playing a long position right now on the equities market is not a high probability profit making move.