fehro wrote:SPX neckline / brick wall retest stalls here and LOD goes again look to 2645
/GC at 200d SMA DXY stalls after nHOD
need SPX to take out LOD /20d for H&S… another possible one forms pink.. lower target "IF" LOD /20d SMA go with conviction VIXes at HODs IWM/RUT holds us up
/CL diamond pattern 30m.. LOD goes.. look for a possible -$1.50 drop in oil
Overnight high ES 2672.25. Yesterday's close 2670, Opening hour high 2668.25, where will this up move stall out, all three look good to me.
Morning low at S1 pivot instead of two points lower at the 7 30 AM low must mean something about who is in control. No such tells to the upside as we are in such a tight little range waiting for the (insert favorite nick name for the POTUS) 2 PM Eastern presser.
Clueless wrote:With the pending announcement at 2pm ET, it is going to be very difficult finding buyers. I believe very move up will be sold until that time. But expect more selling pressure 30-60mins before the announcement.
Then expect the market to flush if Trump comes out of the deal because it will create great uncertainty for a long time for the following reasons:
1) What is the path forward?
2) How will Iran react?
3) How will Iran's allies react?
4) Will Israel now have the green light to attack the Iran nuclear sites - specifically the Natanz facility?
5) North Korea can totally reverse the "good" face it has been trying to put on lately.
6) What to make the the Trump-Kim Jong-un Summit? Will it even take place after that?
...
Just too many unknowns to be a calm bull. Get ready for a wild ride because the market is about to get very volatile?
WAG - non event.. Deal will be scrapped,(bad cop) but oil will flow without sanctions,(good cop) and Trump will say we will work to a better deal for the Iranian people, market tanks on /CL's drop.
overal calmness. The real story is in Europe, and the EURO and Europe banks, imo .. MInd that mighty DXY USdollar
Ugg, now we wait on the VWAP support. Which classic movie was it where they got the old famous actor to appear by giving him a really great death scene?
Promised upgrade to my software will include their version of those great Bookmap charts where you can really see the market action (in Futures). I am guessing would be helpful on a day like this!
te_fern wrote:In a hole now. Will hold just a little longer before I cut my losses. Hate playing the short side!!
believe best shot for bears will be around the 2700 level when bulls might pile in a bit, and if its a fake break, otherwise after new highs, darn bear moves short lived of late...
fehro wrote: WAG - non event.. Deal will be scrapped,(bad cop) but oil will flow without sanctions,(good cop) and Trump will say we will work to a better deal for the Iranian people, market tanks on /CL's drop. overal calmness. The real story is in Europe, and the EURO and Europe banks, imo .. MInd that mighty DXY USdollar
I am thinking there is the ARAMCO IPO that needs to be primed. Saudis want oil a bit higher, at some point. Bit o Conflict with Ira helps.
fehro wrote:SPX neckline / brick wall retest stalls here and LOD goes again look to 2645
/GC at 200d SMA DXY stalls after nHOD
need SPX to take out LOD /20d for H&S… another possible one forms pink.. lower target "IF" LOD /20d SMA go with conviction VIXes at HODs IWM/RUT holds us up /CL diamond pattern 30m.. LOD goes.. look for a possible -$1.50 drop in oil
oil dumps = market dumps
/CL not quite there 67.35ish .. nice drop.. 20d SMA $68.00 tries to hold it here.. support 60m /CL dumps market pops .. on Transports lower oil… H&S SPY 5m at RS .. buckle up SPY stalls
down we go
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my guess. so far it's a range day, so even guess is right, not sure how far it can go.
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fehro,
you are looking at reality, I am talking about the Unicorn number the Saudi's need to fund the grand plan. Trump needs 40 oil if people are to actually have any benefit from tax cuts before the November elections. Hedge funds are not adding to their longs, so you know they are nervous.