Back to www.cobrasmarketview.com

05/15/2018 Live Update

Daniel
Posts: 3482
Joined: Fri Feb 10, 2012 4:27 pm

Re: 05/15/2018 Live Update

Post by Daniel »

Daniel wrote:TLT lod, down >1%.
If TLT were to close here, it would be a classic-MACD crossover sell signal--from the negative histogram area. The recent venture into the 119 area would be a clear lower high, and a target of the Feb low on TLT might then be attainable (ca. 116)
We usually track TLT on this board, and TLT is the 20+year Treasury fund so it moves the most. But IEF, the etf which holds 7-10 year bonds, is closer to the commonly watched and quoted 10yr rate. And IEF has already undercut its Feb low, and is trading at a fresh multi-month low-- with terrible CMF (moneyflow) on its daily chart. This looks like distribution at a major low, not accumulation.
Trades with cats
Posts: 8656
Joined: Sat Oct 11, 2014 4:40 pm

Re: 05/15/2018 Live Update

Post by Trades with cats »

ES 06-18 (2000 Tick) 2018_05_15.png
te_fern, I saw a flurry of I am guessing short covering when we crossed the overnight low then volume dropped as we appoached S2 Opening print.

By the way in my endless pursuit of the Holy Grail system I have gone back to two trailing stops, tight and loose. Fat Tails has said that volatility changes with the square root of the time so the slower stop is double all the parameters of the fast stop except for the ATR multiplier which is times the square root. They are the dots connected by lines and they do use a bit of a parabolic SAR function to give a wide berth when they reverse.
te_fern
Posts: 4017
Joined: Tue Nov 24, 2015 3:35 pm

Re: 05/15/2018 Live Update

Post by te_fern »

Small bounce at VWAP. I'm not nimble enough to play these small swings and to play shorts. So, I'm on the sidelines today to wait until things turn more positive. Got to keep my hands away from my brokerage account's buy button!! :D
Attachments
SPX.PNG
This is not investment or trade advice.
te_fern
Posts: 4017
Joined: Tue Nov 24, 2015 3:35 pm

Re: 05/15/2018 Live Update

Post by te_fern »

Trades with cats wrote:
ES 06-18 (2000 Tick) 2018_05_15.png
te_fern, I saw a flurry of I am guessing short covering when we crossed the overnight low then volume dropped as we appoached S2 Opening print.

By the way in my endless pursuit of the Holy Grail system I have gone back to two trailing stops, tight and loose. Fat Tails has said that volatility changes with the square root of the time so the slower stop is double all the parameters of the fast stop except for the ATR multiplier which is times the square root. They are the dots connected by lines and they do use a bit of a parabolic SAR function to give a wide berth when they reverse.
TWC, it is very interesting to watch your pursuit of the Holy Grail. Thanks for sharing your ideas!!
This is not investment or trade advice.
Wallstreetrader
Posts: 975
Joined: Thu Mar 17, 2011 12:00 pm

Re: 05/15/2018 Live Update

Post by Wallstreetrader »

Long term dip ?
te_fern
Posts: 4017
Joined: Tue Nov 24, 2015 3:35 pm

Re: 05/15/2018 Live Update

Post by te_fern »

The Financials have been strong, started rolling over yesterday....
This is not investment or trade advice.
fehro
Posts: 22880
Joined: Fri Sep 02, 2011 2:06 pm

Re: 05/15/2018 Live Update

Post by fehro »

/ES bounced off weekly pivot.. possible larger H&S .. weak bounce RS LOD goes again.. look to 50d/20d confluence
Attachments
Screen Shot 2018-05-15 at 7.57.03 AM.png
Daniel
Posts: 3482
Joined: Fri Feb 10, 2012 4:27 pm

Re: 05/15/2018 Live Update

Post by Daniel »

From Briefing.com:
Earlier the 2-yr yield was up two basis points at 2.56%. This is its highest level since August 2008.
te_fern
Posts: 4017
Joined: Tue Nov 24, 2015 3:35 pm

Re: 05/15/2018 Live Update

Post by te_fern »

Bios have been trading higher in boxes, but is pressuring the bottom side of their current box.....
Attachments
LABU.PNG
This is not investment or trade advice.
te_fern
Posts: 4017
Joined: Tue Nov 24, 2015 3:35 pm

Re: 05/15/2018 Live Update

Post by te_fern »

With the dollar stronger, Gold futures has taken it on the chin the last two days....
Attachments
Gold Futures.PNG
This is not investment or trade advice.
Daniel
Posts: 3482
Joined: Fri Feb 10, 2012 4:27 pm

Re: 05/15/2018 Live Update

Post by Daniel »

te_fern wrote:Got to keep my hands away from my brokerage account's buy button! :D
This is why the term (and strategy) SOH was invented. SIT ON HANDS. Be careful to place the knuckles comfortably under the buttocks. :P
te_fern
Posts: 4017
Joined: Tue Nov 24, 2015 3:35 pm

Re: 05/15/2018 Live Update

Post by te_fern »

Daniel wrote:
te_fern wrote:Got to keep my hands away from my brokerage account's buy button! :D
This is why the term (and strategy) SOH was invented. SIT ON HANDS. Be careful to place the knuckles comfortably under the buttocks. :P
Thanks for the suggestion, why I like this board!! :D :D :D :D
This is not investment or trade advice.
Daniel
Posts: 3482
Joined: Fri Feb 10, 2012 4:27 pm

Re: 05/15/2018 Live Update

Post by Daniel »

IWM gap fill, and beyond. Smallcaps seem to be riding their general correlation w dollar strength.
Domestic econo-strength is good for the smallies. Also, note the endless succession of new highs on $Lumber. Lots of building going on.
fehro
Posts: 22880
Joined: Fri Sep 02, 2011 2:06 pm

Re: 05/15/2018 Live Update

Post by fehro »

INDEXes.. SPX possible island top.. NDX not pretty,VIX green IWM lags in the down move… TRANSports weak
Attachments
Screen Shot 2018-05-15 at 8.22.46 AM.png
Screen Shot 2018-05-15 at 8.25.14 AM.png
te_fern
Posts: 4017
Joined: Tue Nov 24, 2015 3:35 pm

Re: 05/15/2018 Live Update

Post by te_fern »

TICKs trying to move higher, Qs have broken thru its MA line....
Attachments
Tick.PNG
This is not investment or trade advice.
Trades with cats
Posts: 8656
Joined: Sat Oct 11, 2014 4:40 pm

Re: 05/15/2018 Live Update

Post by Trades with cats »

European exchanges have closed. ES stuck in a really tight 4 point range for close to an hour. Overnight low at the top and the 20 EMA right down the center. :(
fehro
Posts: 22880
Joined: Fri Sep 02, 2011 2:06 pm

Re: 05/15/2018 Live Update

Post by fehro »

fehro wrote:INDEXes.. SPX possible island top.. NDX not pretty,VIX green IWM lags in the down move… TRANSports weak

nibble short RUT 1600 / IWM 159.50 VIXEs still inching out nHODs
daytradingES
Posts: 2245
Joined: Thu Sep 13, 2012 10:46 am

Re: 05/15/2018 Live Update

Post by daytradingES »

Trades with cats wrote:It isn't that it is a rigged game, I think it more that those with deep pockets play a different version, like a medieval game of thrones, we all have our place but the rules for us aren't the same as for those with titles. If it was well and truly rigged I don't think we would see the turn over in the great houses. This is, after all the great game. ;)
I think that if you think it isn't rigged you are holding a conspiracy theory.

Every large dip was bought by the US Govt at 10% since 2009.
It is rigged.
The free market died.
zero % LT bonds and negative yield IS rigging.
It has forced pension funds and govt around the world to move into equity from LT bonds.
It is rigged - no question.
Educational only and not trading advice (EO&NTA) :)
Good trading to all
User avatar
Cobra
Site Admin
Posts: 58334
Joined: Sat Feb 12, 2011 10:29 pm

Re: 05/15/2018 Live Update

Post by Cobra »


Like to read more of my commentaries? Please subscribe my Daily Market Report.
Subscribers can find all the members only posts HERE.
StockCharts members, please vote for me HERE, thanks.
fehro
Posts: 22880
Joined: Fri Sep 02, 2011 2:06 pm

Re: 05/15/2018 Live Update

Post by fehro »

fehro wrote:
fehro wrote:SPX possible support.. but Thurs GAP 2704-2698 looks like it wants a fill… cover partial shorts here from yesterday +30 … may bounce for a bit

not sure weak bounce, another RS of green H&S .. and breaks again.. look to 20d/50d tags
buckle up RS done.. neckline green goes SPX /ES possible another -40 point drop coming.. mind the 20d/50d SMAs for support
Attachments
Screen Shot 2018-05-15 at 9.01.42 AM.png
Post Reply