06/28/2018 Live Update

[Trades with cats]

Tomorrow, according to the Almanac is a notorious end of quarter window dresser. Who would short ahead of that. But this weekend is 30 billion in treasury funding so the dealers will be tight on funds come Monday with a high probability of a down day or so said the article last night. Finally we seem to need these rest days after big range days. So my final analysis is to wait for Cobra to figure it out tonight!

[MrMiyagi]

QQQ & SPY both testing early-morning double bottoms.

[te_fern]

TWC, what is the web page address for the end of day trading analysis video you mentioned? I can't find it. thx!

[Trades with cats]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=efabSE3odOg

[te_fern]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=efabSE3odOg

Thanks!

[Cobra]

small double bottom.

[K447]

Tomorrow, according to the Almanac is a notorious end of quarter window dresser. Who would short ahead of that.

But ...

Well, sometimes it really is different this time ...

[Al_Dente]

Financials are nearly 3 standard deviations below their 50ma
That’s near extreme oversold
It doesn’t go there often, and it doesn’t stay there long
(daily chart)

[Daniel]

SPY, QQQ, IWM are all currently above daily VWAP. So are EEM and FXI. XLI and IYT are not.

[fehro]

/ES test oLOD support SPX looking for bounce to 50d 2717.. reload short there .. long here

almost there 8 more points

[brokebybernacke2]

/ES test oLOD support SPX looking for bounce to 50d 2717.. reload short there .. long here

almost there 8 more points

the vix is supporting your argument, so far......weekly chart, have NOT had a mac d cross yet, and 50 /200wma less than a point separated /no cross, yet, much much room to run if she decides to do it vs. tease. implication feasible pop to 22/23 possible in near term, and if we get bear crosses on both, well more interesting longer term. So bullwashed too hard to believe.

[fehro]

TRANsports not happy <20d/50d/200d SMA.. but on 50w SMA

[QED]

fehro, do you think the $SPX will visit the 2650 level in the next 3 weeks?

[Trades with cats]

I have three measured moves up and I keep moving the same trend line over to the right and it seems to work. Fourth move, if it completes, gets us to the overnight high. But it isn't there yet and that third move ended with the Euro zone closing bell.

[Daniel]

NYSE A/D hovering about 1:1, but the VIX has dropped back below 18. EEM is sniffing at a new hod, and TLT is falling back from its prior high.

[Cobra]

members only update at 12:08 pm
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2018/06 ... ay-update/

[fehro]

/ES test oLOD support SPX looking for bounce to 50d 2717.. reload short there .. long here

almost there 8 more points

[Trades with cats]

On financials- How many articles have we read over the last year that Deutsche Bank is a nuclear device primed and ready to blow up the banking system because of their huge derivatives portfolio. They are running this huge race to see if they can shrink the bank faster than their equity declines and the market is pretty clear from price which side is winning. I would love to think that they are Mario's problem but (big sigh) you know they are Jay's problem also. There will be a lot of late into the night phone calls and face to face meetings some weekend this summer and then a Monday announcement. Until that happens why own financials.

You know the big players will all be affected in ways we will never know about. Did you know about AIG's one way unbalanced bets before the Fed stepped in? Did you know what Lehman's collapse really meant until afterwards? Did any of us have an inkling (well OK in the way that would most hurt the public and their customers, that was a given) as to where Goldman had made it's wagers just before the collapse?

And this time it really will be different. If you think Steve Mnuchin and Jay Powell can heard a bunch of congressmen into a room and tell them to approve the bailouts or else a second time you are mistaken. They have the goat to blame this time and they are terrified of the Tea Party and Sanders Socialists both of which will rip them to shreds on a second bailout. No, this time the Fed has no choice but to use the living wills and dismember the too big to fail, if Deutsche gets us to that point.

[Trades with cats]

Now we know, all the bulls were sitting in London.
So starting over back at the double aughts (well close enough).
Cobra keeps saying a top is a process. Looking like today has processed the last cash out of the bull wallets.

[MrMiyagi]

Dang didelly-ang, both QQQ and SPY didn't hold the 20ema.