09/14/2011 Intraday Watering

Post by **Cobra** » Wed Sep 14, 2011 9:07 am

Gap up along the yesterday's high so hard to guess whether we'll have a trend day or boring day. Global ES only proves what I said last night, SO FAR, the rebound is the weakest because the 3 pushes we have obviously are overlapping, this NORMALLY doesn't look like a start of a new bull. You also can compare the rebound from 09/06 to 09/07, it was a straight up, look at what we have now, it's obvious, isn't it?

99er · Post by **99er** » Wed Sep 14, 2011 9:10 am

Good Morning.

So honey...are you reviewing your phrase book?
EURUSD http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/09/eurusd_14.html

"Ou est le W.C.?"

99er · Post by **99er** » Wed Sep 14, 2011 9:11 am

ES
http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/09/es_14.html

"Ou est le bus?"

champix · Post by **champix** » Wed Sep 14, 2011 9:13 am

99er wrote:Good Morning.

So honey...are you reviewing your phrase book?
EURUSD http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/09/eurusd_14.html

"Ou est le W.C.?"

Hooney, hooney... "Ou sont les W.C.?"

Petsamo · Post by **Petsamo** » Wed Sep 14, 2011 9:18 am

Bookoo resistance here, fellas!

cougar · Post by **cougar** » Wed Sep 14, 2011 9:19 am

I did not think that they would gap above my IWM “target/reversal”, in the present market conditions…but they will!
Yes, we can!

Speculator · Post by **Speculator** » Wed Sep 14, 2011 9:19 am

Cobra wrote:Gap up along the yesterday's high so hard to guess whether we'll have a trend day or boring day. Global ES only proves what I said last night, SO FAR, the rebound is the weakest because the 3 pushes we have obviously are overlapping, this NORMALLY doesn't look like a start of a new bull. You also can compare the rebound from 09/06 to 09/07, it was a straight up, look at what we have now, it's obvious, isn't it?

While it may not be a new "bull" trend, it may be the beginning of a sideways consolidation with several months of range trading in which we do not take out the low established in August. A new "bull" trend would then take off from the final low in that sideways trend from about this same level. Given the negative sentiment, this seems an even odds possibility against the probability of a new low before the end of the year.

dr659 · Post by **dr659** » Wed Sep 14, 2011 9:22 am

Anyone know what happened to Shankystechblog?

stucap · Post by **stucap** » Wed Sep 14, 2011 9:22 am

Cobra wrote:Gap up along the yesterday's high so hard to guess whether we'll have a trend day or boring day. Global ES only proves what I said last night, SO FAR, the rebound is the weakest because the 3 pushes we have obviously are overlapping, this NORMALLY doesn't look like a start of a new bull. You also can compare the rebound from 09/06 to 09/07, it was a straight up, look at what we have now, it's obvious, isn't it?

I couldn't agree with you more, cobra. But, I still think the bulls will take a shot at the 1185 gap before they give up. I'm looking for some selling at the bell to close any gap made this morning and then a push up to at least challenge the overnight high on the ES at 1176ish and only a few points more to get to 1185 (cash). Then, we'll see if the bears want to wake up again --- or if they want to suffer a squeeze up higher.

Just my thoughts.....after seeing zero conviction on the "dark" side after the 830 eco data.

q2model · Post by **q2model** » Wed Sep 14, 2011 9:22 am

Today's Economic Calendar
8.30 PPI (est. -0.1% m/m, 6.4% y/y)

Core PPI (est 0.2% m/m, 2.6% y/y)

Retail sales (0.3% m/m)

Retail sales ex autos (0.4% m/m)

Core retail sales (0.4% m/m)

10.00 Business inventories (0.6% m/m)

10.30 DOE Inventory Data
Crude Oil – est -3,000k, last week -3,963k

Gasoline – est -500k, last week 199k

Distillate – est 700k, last week 709k
Refinery Utilization – est -0.85%, last week -0.20%

12.00 Merkel and Sarkozy’s call with Papandreou

Al_Dente · Post by **Al_Dente** » Wed Sep 14, 2011 9:23 am

Morning all.

Interesting…. now that I’m fixating on short interest implications, I find the folks over at zero reporting after the close yest a potential “Epic Squeeze” in BAC because of their high short interst. In classic Tyler hyperbole, he opines that BAC is now “...overdue for another massive ripfest [rally] before it's lights out [decline]. Guaranteed...”

You gotta love him, even if you hate him.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/nyse-shor ... ica-shares

If you can’t handle Tyler, here’s a direct link to the NYSE short report released YESTERDAY after close (I erroneously expected it due on 15th).

http://www.nyse.com/press/1315833921149.html

Mongoose · Post by **Mongoose** » Wed Sep 14, 2011 9:24 am

Here is an example of the CDS market frontrunning an event -- pricing a 98% probability of a Greek default -- which equities are ignoring.

http://www.alsosprachanalyst.com/econom ... pdate.html

The last time equities ignored such signals was back in 2008 which Paulson was too happy to take advantage of.

Tutti · Post by **Tutti** » Wed Sep 14, 2011 9:24 am

Just wanted to pop in and introduce myself. While I don't day trade, I enjoy your nightly and intra-day work Cobra. It has saved me from taking a position near reversals that I would not have seen otherwise. Many thanks.

Ciao.

Tutti

99er · Post by **99er** » Wed Sep 14, 2011 9:25 am

AUDJPY
http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/09/audjpy_14.html

"Ou est le risk?"

stucap · Post by **stucap** » Wed Sep 14, 2011 9:27 am

Mongoose wrote:Here is an example of the CDS market frontrunning an event -- pricing a 98% probability of a Greek default -- which equities are ignoring.

http://www.alsosprachanalyst.com/econom ... pdate.html

The last time equities ignored such signals was back in 2008 which Paulson was too happy to take advantage of.

Don't you know that the bond market is always wrong.......

StrikePrice · Post by **StrikePrice** » Wed Sep 14, 2011 9:28 am

Cobra wrote:Gap up along the yesterday's high so hard to guess whether we'll have a trend day or boring day. Global ES only proves what I said last night, SO FAR, the rebound is the weakest because the 3 pushes we have obviously are overlapping, this NORMALLY doesn't look like a start of a new bull. You also can compare the rebound from 09/06 to 09/07, it was a straight up, look at what we have now, it's obvious, isn't it?

I think the /ES reacts to what Asian and European markets are doing, so I don't think the overlapping applies at all to the cash market. But if you believe China leads (it topped in April before the S&P) then yes we need China to breakout before a new Bull can be called. The EOD reversal in China was nice and Europe is looking good, but we still have a long way to go....

Mongoose · Post by **Mongoose** » Wed Sep 14, 2011 9:30 am

stucap wrote:
Mongoose wrote:Here is an example of the CDS market frontrunning an event -- pricing a 98% probability of a Greek default -- which equities are ignoring.

http://www.alsosprachanalyst.com/econom ... pdate.html

The last time equities ignored such signals was back in 2008 which Paulson was too happy to take advantage of.
Don't you know that the bond market is always wrong.......

Tell that to Bill Gross.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/afontevecch ... -since-95/

Post by **Cobra** » Wed Sep 14, 2011 9:31 am

the open.

MajorEasy · Post by **MajorEasy** » Wed Sep 14, 2011 9:32 am

real time e-mini S&P, could be bullish,
go figure, this chart includes over night

Michelle · Post by **Michelle** » Wed Sep 14, 2011 9:34 am

Copper not looking too good this morning.

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09/14/2011 Intraday Watering

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