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no idea up or down from here. my guess is a range day today.
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Different index. ES and SPX are closely related but not always in perfect sync, especially on volume, thus no way for VWAP to be the same. Now the EMA should be closer, especially after a half hour or so of trading so that the Globex hours EMA and the New York Pit hours, now called regular hours, EMAs can syc up.
Important to me is since 10 am every touch of ES VWAP has been met with selling so on paper a trigger happy institutional trader having to sell a lot of contracts without tanking the market. At 9:38 ish market stayed up above VWAP for 4,000 transactions.
we may have the range low, now assume the morning high is the range high.
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Gap filled during Globex session probably counts as still open. They are going to have to get Larry K out in front of the cameras because tomorrow is Fed day and Thursday will be yet another media circus like yesterday.
Unless you actually expect Powell and company to say we are wrong and will be cutting rates a month before an election.