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10/11/2018 Live Update

Re: 10/11/2018 Live Update

Postby Daniel » Thu Oct 11, 2018 11:02 am

Interestingly, silver is underperforming gold today. Also, Gold Miners and GLD itself are testing their Aug highs, but slv is nowhere near its prior high. Usually silver leads.
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Re: 10/11/2018 Live Update

Postby Al_Dente » Thu Oct 11, 2018 11:06 am

Big Tech, 10 days
1011tech.png.png
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Re: 10/11/2018 Live Update

Postby brokebybernacke2 » Thu Oct 11, 2018 11:06 am

brokebybernacke2 wrote:
Daniel wrote:TLT is currently testing its 15min 200ema from below (EMA is still downslope but flattening)

New lod for SPY, but not for QQQ or IWM


spx daily 200 ma broke


just tagged the weekly! should pierce for full scare..
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Re: 10/11/2018 Live Update

Postby Al_Dente » Thu Oct 11, 2018 11:14 am

internals
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Re: 10/11/2018 Live Update

Postby QED » Thu Oct 11, 2018 11:15 am

Trades with cats wrote:
Blackout Oct 2018.png

Finally somebody (Morgan Stanley) put up a blackout chart. Today is peak blackout.

Stock Buyback Announcements
https://www.marketbeat.com/stock-buybacks/

.
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Re: 10/11/2018 Live Update

Postby brokebybernacke2 » Thu Oct 11, 2018 11:21 am

just a heads up, watching a MONTHLY mac d negative crossover potential on sp. that would move my longer term spy target to about 254 up in relatively short order. keep eye on it.
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Re: 10/11/2018 Live Update

Postby Trades with cats » Thu Oct 11, 2018 11:24 am

Great thing about the big trading houses is they have some poor smuck who has to put all the buyback announcements into a spread sheet :D
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Re: 10/11/2018 Live Update

Postby BullBear52x » Thu Oct 11, 2018 11:25 am

1% mark consolidate. looks like we will get intraday rip for clearer view.
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Re: 10/11/2018 Live Update

Postby Daniel » Thu Oct 11, 2018 11:28 am

SMH has been a pocket of strength. And now XLK just momentarily turned grn.

XLE/XOP are getting clobbered, down well over 2%.
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Re: 10/11/2018 Live Update

Postby Mr. BachNut » Thu Oct 11, 2018 11:35 am

Good morning all. Mr. BachNut checking in after a long hiatus.
Yesterday was interesting. So, I figured I would swing by to say hello.
I hope everyone is doing great. Life is good.

I still use my NYMO model to gauge what Mr. Market is doing.
2017 was a tough year for the model, but it has been constructive this year.
The basic premise of the model is that NYMO highs and lows correlate [very] loosely to price highs and lows.
Moreover, failures have a way (not always) of becoming unfinished business that price reconciles later.
Some observations:

There was an important price high and NYMO high on July 9.
The next NYMO cycle low was August 13 but price was above the July 9 high (a model failure).
The next NYMO and last NYMO high was August 21, NYMO has been in decline since while price, until yesterday, has been divergent.
Yesterday price dropped below the July price high taking care of the unfinished business, and as I write price has closed the big open gap from July 6.
The 200 day MA, which provided great support in February doesn't appear to be kicking in at the moment (gulp).
The lower keltner band (green) got tagged today, which is not good.
I have a couple of open gap targets below on the chart as well as a slow rising bottoms line that if hit would represent a sincere test of the February low.
I don't know what will happen, or if those possible targets will get hit.

I did catch yesterday's move :D and have taken profits. Emotionally, I want to get flat soon.
October is known as the Bear Killer for a reason. A bounce into month end (starting whenever) would not surprise.
A price low with a positive NYMO divergence on the daily chart would be ideal for a swing long, but is not required and may not happen.
I will be jamming my stop and hopefully doing nothing for the rest of the week.

NYMO 101118.jpg
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Re: 10/11/2018 Live Update

Postby Cobra » Thu Oct 11, 2018 11:36 am

possible rebound from MA200. let's see. I'm not sure as I don't see bottom pattern on the 5 min chart yet, so don't know whether the low was in or not.
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Re: 10/11/2018 Live Update

Postby K447 » Thu Oct 11, 2018 11:42 am

brokebybernacke2 wrote:just a heads up, watching a MONTHLY mac d negative crossover potential on sp. that would move my longer term spy target to about 254 up in relatively short order. keep eye on it.


What does the 'up' refer to?
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Re: 10/11/2018 Live Update

Postby BullBear52x » Thu Oct 11, 2018 11:43 am

#2 counter trend, need to see rip selling before the lady shows up
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Re: 10/11/2018 Live Update

Postby Mr. BachNut » Thu Oct 11, 2018 11:44 am

Another observation:

From a NYMO perspective, a broad bunch of stocks have more or less been correcting since July 9 other than a brief pop in August.
I guess that narrow bunch of Fang stocks and some others thugged the index up in the mean time.
In any case, there may be a large cohort of stocks that have substantially corrected and could provide a base at some point.
We shall see.
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Re: 10/11/2018 Live Update

Postby BullBear52x » Thu Oct 11, 2018 11:50 am

Mr. BachNut wrote:Another observation:

From a NYMO perspective, a broad bunch of stocks have more or less been correcting since July 9 other than a brief pop in August.
I guess that narrow bunch of Fang stocks and some others thugged the index up in the mean time.
In any case, there may be a large cohort of stocks that have substantially corrected and could provide a base at some point.
We shall see.

Welcome back, I showed up here not that long, it must be the VIX that brought us back. Love high volatility :D
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Postby MrMiyagi » Thu Oct 11, 2018 11:53 am

COME ON BABY JANET GIVES US AT LEAST A DOJI YOU OLD BAG!!
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Re: 10/11/2018 Live Update

Postby BullBear52x » Thu Oct 11, 2018 11:55 am

-1% mark counter trend not disappointed. well, rip will be sold shortly
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Re: 10/11/2018 Live Update

Postby Cobra » Thu Oct 11, 2018 12:06 pm


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Re: 10/11/2018 Live Update

Postby Cobra » Thu Oct 11, 2018 12:09 pm

it's the very first test of ema20 in very long time so generally it should be sold around here if not counting the MA200 buy program I mentioned earlier. Let's see. maybe it can be used to see whether the buy program is strong or not.
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Re: 10/11/2018 Live Update

Postby brokebybernacke2 » Thu Oct 11, 2018 12:11 pm

K447 wrote:
brokebybernacke2 wrote:just a heads up, watching a MONTHLY mac d negative crossover potential on sp. that would move my longer term spy target to about 254 up in relatively short order. keep eye on it.


What does the 'up' refer to?


bad typing! if monthly crossover threatened, spy 254 comes into play rather quickly imo. still prefer deadcat today and fall to about spy 271 after potential failed auction, gold saying something.
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