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"Wakey wakey: FYI. US clocks go forward this weekend making the data next week an hour earlier in GMT terms. UK clocks don't adjust to BST until 31st March."
Sometimes I forget that what to me is clearly sarcastic humor is actually 'inside baseball' as the sportscasters say when they get too far into the weeds.
Setting up for a re-run of yesterday's pattern. Bulls struggling here looks like market coiling after the overnight selling. Guessing at a gap and go attempt Monday. Will test the Boy Wonder's (Nomura's McElligott) claim that the CTA's are now closing out longs.
testing range low, key time. for now I don't expect a decisive breakdown, should be a rebound around to range low if indeed it's a range day.
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I have not updated the Elliot wave forecasts. Pretzel Logic currently saying we are in either a corrective or impulsive down wave, too soon to tell. Have not seen an update from Coolbiz, expect something this weekend.
Edit to add that I now have the McClellan oscillator at the bottom.
McElligott says selling trigger was 2750
“…CTAs are liquidating their existing long positions, accelerating stock selling and cutting their “loss-making” positions.”
bla bla bla
zh: “In fact, global macro HFs [hedge funds] focusing more on fundamentals seem to have strengthened their cautious stances while accumulating short positions on US equities and long positions on long-term UST bonds for now.”
[Recall that SPX 2660 is the old “Powell Put” level]
[I still see that unfilled SPX gap (from 2/12). It appears to offer support at the moment. If that gap fills, it would fill at approximately 2712-ish]
Disclaimer: I am not an investment advisor. This is just my opinion NOT investment advice.
Twitter from Tom McClellan
Getting Qs about how the McOsc falls so far with A-D Line down only 3049 pts from ATH. The Osc. is the diff. btw. the 10% Trend and the 5% Trend of daily A-D. It shows big + or - values when those 2 EMAs get pulled far apart, which is easier after EMAs get pulled far to one side.
Trades with cats wrote:Twitter from Tom McClellan
Getting Qs about how the McOsc falls so far with A-D Line down only 3049 pts from ATH. The Osc. is the diff. btw. the 10% Trend and the 5% Trend of daily A-D. It shows big + or - values when those 2 EMAs get pulled far apart, which is easier after EMAs get pulled far to one side.
Here is mine.... Anyway you slice it shorts are very risky, Unless we are getting another december?
Well a December style repeat is what McElliogg is calling for after the 15th. Also the CDS on investment grade is blowing out making it look like we have a building credit crisis. But the President is correct, all he has to do is sign any agreement with the Chinese and the market will spike.
My bottom line is the central banks are in full on panic mode so caution is correct until we all can see what is scaring them so very badly. My guess is they know we are approaching another Minsky moment.