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05/01/2019 Live Update

Re: 05/01/2019 Live Update

Postby JFR » Wed May 01, 2019 3:17 pm

K447 wrote:
JFR wrote:Show us a chart, K447.
...


Chart of what?

I mostly swing trade options on individual stocks with expiries multiple months out, sometimes LEAPS

I rarely trade the actual indexes, if I do it would be options, mostly put options. I use the indexes and sectors more as a monitor of the market climate and weather conditions, within which the individual stocks trade.

I sold a bunch of AAPL leaps circa October 2018 (I would have to go back and check the exact dates), then stepped aside. Managed to sit out most of the ensuing whipsaws, then started buying AAPL options again in late November, and bought more during late December when prices were getting rather stupid low. FB was also 'highly discounted' back then.

Eased out of all Facebook long calls last Thursday (they worked out nicely) but bought another smaller long call position yesterday. Something of a flyer for me, this current FB trade.


Show us a chart of FB or AAPL. Let us see how you think. What you look at for trends, support and resistance, etc. Just chatting here on a quiet day.
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Re: 05/01/2019 Live Update

Postby Cobra » Wed May 01, 2019 3:17 pm

possible double bottom, the low might be in.
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Re: 05/01/2019 Live Update

Postby Cobra » Wed May 01, 2019 3:51 pm


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Re: 05/01/2019 Live Update

Postby Trades with cats » Wed May 01, 2019 3:54 pm

ES 06-19 (8000 Tick) 2019_05_01 (1_51_34 PM).png

Did Mulvaney say something again?
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Broadening triangle formations, price discovery, prior range

Postby K447 » Wed May 01, 2019 3:55 pm

JFR wrote:Show us a chart of FB or AAPL. Let us see how you think.

What you look at for trends, support and resistance, etc.

Just chatting here on a quiet day.


Ah, well, hmmm. I do not view support and resistance as actual things. I look at such levels as targets to be taken out (exceeded). Even if by only a penny, stop-losses at the precise 'previous support' price tend to be taken out, and often extend further to trigger additional stop losses 'nearby'. Same for resistance.

Price action tends to whipsaw up and down, expanding the triangles (broadening formations with higher highs and lower lows) over time. Eventually the vertical price spans get large enough to be interesting. Then I look to buy calls at the next low range or buy puts near the triangle top. The idea is to be in the trade while price runs (or rips) through the prior ranges from one side of larger triangle to the other.

Where and on what time frames the triangle top or bottom is occurring is important. Along with other things I look for to confirm or negate the situation.

Within the larger triangles there will be multitudes of smaller sub-triangles. Price discovery is a series of broadening formations, from the 1 minute chart on out to the weekly, monthly, even quarterly and yearly.

For AAPL, why buy in late December 2018? On the way down price in December 2018 took out the prior low from Feb 2018. That made for a rather large triangle. The Jan 2018 AAPL low touched $142.00. Way back in July 2017 the low was 142.41, hence the triangle became even larger.

SPY was already on its way up by January 2019, so the 'market climate' was conducive to AAPL running back through the triangle. Or at least making the effort. Similar story for FB.

There is more to it than just the triangles, but I look at charts through this lens. And always looking at multiple time frames. My typical chart view for a given stock is monthly, weekly, daily, 60 minute, 30, 15. And sometimes the five minute chart just for timing the entry moment.
Last edited by K447 on Wed May 01, 2019 4:05 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 05/01/2019 Live Update

Postby Cobra » Wed May 01, 2019 3:55 pm

well, guess that's it for today. here's what Thursday looks like. thank you guys, I'll see you in another thread soon.

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Re: 05/01/2019 Live Update

Postby Cobra » Wed May 01, 2019 3:56 pm


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Re: 05/01/2019 Live Update

Postby JFR » Wed May 01, 2019 4:01 pm

K447 wrote:
JFR wrote:Show us a chart of FB or AAPL. Let us see how you think.

What you look at for trends, support and resistance, etc.

Just chatting here on a quiet day.


Ah, well, hmmm. I do not view support and resistance as actual things. I look at such levels as targets to be taken out (exceeded). Even if by only a penny, stop-losses at the precise 'previous support' price tend to be taken out, and often extend further to trigger additional stop losses 'nearby'. Same for resistance.

Price action tends to whipsaw up and down, expanding the triangles (broadening formations with higher highs and lower lows) over time. Eventually the vertical price spans get large enough to be interesting. Then I look to buy calls at the next low range or buy puts near the triangle top. The idea is to be in the trade while price runs (or rips) through the prior ranges from one side of larger triangle to the other.

Where and on what time frames the triangle top or bottom is occurring is important. Along with other things I look for to confirm or negate the situation.

Within the larger triangles there will be multitudes of smaller sub-triangles. Price discovery is a series of broadening formations, from the 1 minute chart on out to the weekly, monthly, even quarterly and yearly.

For AAPL, why buy in late December 2018? On the way down price in December 2018 took out the prior low from Feb 2018. That made for a rather large triangle. The Jan 2018 AAPL low touched $142.00. Way back in July 2017 the low was 142.41, hence the triangle became even larger.

SPY was already on its way up by January 2019, so the 'market climate' was conducive to AAPL running back through the triangle. Or at least making the effort. Similar story for FB.

There is more to it than just the triangles, but I look at charts through this lens. And always looking at multiple time frames. My typical chart view for a given stock is monthly, weekly, daily, 60 minute, 30, 15. And sometimes the five minute chart just for timing the entry moment.


Thanks for your detailed response, K447. Very interesting regarding calls and puts.

I only trade options once in a while. A few years back I sold naked puts (without owning any) on HLF, at the time of the Ackman/Icahn argument.

I did it for value. HLF, imo, was undervalued, with good financials. I sold the puts to collect the premium, not worried if I was forced to buy the stock, as per the option. The options expired worthless. So I was ahead the premium. Price went up.
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