Back to www.cobrasmarketview.com

09/19/2011 Intraday Watering

ultramarine
Posts: 194
Joined: Fri Aug 26, 2011 9:25 am

Re: 09/19/2011 Intraday Watering

Post by ultramarine »

Howdy, fellow Cobrans,

The new high on TLT speaks volumes about where the market seems to be going in the near future -- down.

But how long could bonds keep rising? I am seeing a wedge pattern here that suggests it may not have much further to run. This may not necessarily mean that stocks will reverse higher, especially after the FOMC. Both could end up falling together.

tlt.wedge.png
User avatar
heavenskrow
Posts: 1030
Joined: Tue Aug 16, 2011 11:17 am
Contact:

Re: 09/19/2011 Intraday Watering

Post by heavenskrow »

MajorEasy wrote:
MajorEasy wrote:
heavenskrow wrote:
Going back to the SP500's inception, with this strategy you would be up 172.62 % on your initial investment, and 54.55% probability of winning trades.
Thx for sharing

i've got some trading software that automaticcally measures the angle of the cross of the 2 moving averages to improve win-rate.
narrow angles during a cross is not good,
this current angle is as good as it can get.
let's see if it makes money....
wow thats pretty interesting, i wish mine could do that!
User avatar
Al_Dente
Posts: 28535
Joined: Thu Jul 21, 2011 2:29 pm

Re: 09/19/2011 Intraday Watering

Post by Al_Dente »

Bear declining issues still holding very strong 2500
VIX not too shabby 34
My fav 50/200 crossed bear this morn on 5m, usually good for a few days, but whipsaws not unusual
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p= ... =243584215
Disclaimer: I am not an investment advisor. This is just my opinion NOT investment advice.
User avatar
Cobra
Site Admin
Posts: 58344
Joined: Sat Feb 12, 2011 10:29 pm

Re: 09/19/2011 Intraday Watering

Post by Cobra »

rebound as I expected, just it's a little weaker than I thought. kind of ambiguity time now: breakout would be bullish 1-2-3, breakdown would be bearish 1-2-3. since the trend is down, so bearish 1-2-3 has more credit here if indeed breakdown.
Attachments
1.png

Like to read more of my commentaries? Please subscribe my Daily Market Report.
Subscribers can find all the members only posts HERE.
StockCharts members, please vote for me HERE, thanks.
User avatar
heavenskrow
Posts: 1030
Joined: Tue Aug 16, 2011 11:17 am
Contact:

Re: 09/19/2011 Intraday Watering

Post by heavenskrow »

ultramarine wrote:Howdy, fellow Cobrans,

The new high on TLT speaks volumes about where the market seems to be going in the near future -- down.

But how long could bonds keep rising? I am seeing a wedge pattern here that suggests it may not have much further to run. This may not necessarily mean that stocks will reverse higher, especially after the FOMC. Both could end up falling together.

The attachment tlt.wedge.png is no longer available
Maybe...as the smart money usually buys up bonds before and sells it to the Fed knowing there will be a buyer.
Attachments
ISHARES BARCLAYS 20 YEAR TREASURY [BATS].png
User avatar
Cobra
Site Admin
Posts: 58344
Joined: Sat Feb 12, 2011 10:29 pm

Re: 09/19/2011 Intraday Watering

Post by Cobra »

rola wrote:Cobra on wich site can I do my very good opinion about you
http://www.investimonials.com/blogs/rev ... -view.aspx

Like to read more of my commentaries? Please subscribe my Daily Market Report.
Subscribers can find all the members only posts HERE.
StockCharts members, please vote for me HERE, thanks.
stockcycle
Posts: 329
Joined: Fri May 20, 2011 6:31 am
Location: Vietnam
Contact:

Re: 09/19/2011 Intraday Watering

Post by stockcycle »

Feeling that the high of day will be revisited. And then may be Higher high.
User avatar
davros
Posts: 90
Joined: Thu Jun 09, 2011 12:42 pm
Contact:

Re: 09/19/2011 Intraday Watering

Post by davros »

with bonds it's better to look at the real thing - ZB, not an etf like tlt, this should show pretty clear where we are
zb2.png
Netrom
Posts: 10
Joined: Wed Feb 23, 2011 3:02 pm

Re: 09/19/2011 Intraday Watering

Post by Netrom »

I have a fakeprint all the way up to cap filed
User avatar
heavenskrow
Posts: 1030
Joined: Tue Aug 16, 2011 11:17 am
Contact:

Re: 09/19/2011 Intraday Watering

Post by heavenskrow »

davros wrote:with bonds it's better to look at the real thing - ZB, not an etf like tlt, this should show pretty clear where we are
zb2.png
Exactly, I only have closing prices in prorealtime for ZB.
Thats why Im looking at finviz with a 5 min delay and trading TLT lol
PLeAse keep me updated though
ultramarine
Posts: 194
Joined: Fri Aug 26, 2011 9:25 am

Re: 09/19/2011 Intraday Watering

Post by ultramarine »

heavenskrow wrote:
ultramarine wrote:Howdy, fellow Cobrans,

The new high on TLT speaks volumes about where the market seems to be going in the near future -- down.

But how long could bonds keep rising? I am seeing a wedge pattern here that suggests it may not have much further to run. This may not necessarily mean that stocks will reverse higher, especially after the FOMC. Both could end up falling together.

tlt.wedge.png
Maybe...as the smart money usually buys up bonds before and sells it to the Fed knowing there will be a buyer.

Right. So what is your upside target for TLT? Maybe it won't stop at 118 and we enter some Japan-like deflationary period where the 10-year hits 1%.
uempel
Posts: 8685
Joined: Tue Feb 15, 2011 6:38 am

Re: 09/19/2011 Intraday Watering

Post by uempel »

Update :D
SPX7.png
User avatar
BullBear52x
Posts: 29516
Joined: Tue Feb 22, 2011 3:47 pm

Re: 09/19/2011 Intraday Watering

Post by BullBear52x »

Very bearish looking here, a start of a bigger trend directional once trade below MA band and 195 dma hrere.
Attachments
spy.JPG
My comments are for entertainment/educational purpose only. NOT a trade advice.
User avatar
heavenskrow
Posts: 1030
Joined: Tue Aug 16, 2011 11:17 am
Contact:

Re: 09/19/2011 Intraday Watering

Post by heavenskrow »

ultramarine wrote:
heavenskrow wrote:
ultramarine wrote:Howdy, fellow Cobrans,

The new high on TLT speaks volumes about where the market seems to be going in the near future -- down.

But how long could bonds keep rising? I am seeing a wedge pattern here that suggests it may not have much further to run. This may not necessarily mean that stocks will reverse higher, especially after the FOMC. Both could end up falling together.

tlt.wedge.png
Maybe...as the smart money usually buys up bonds before and sells it to the Fed knowing there will be a buyer.

Right. So what is your upside target for TLT? Maybe it won't stop at 118 and we enter some Japan-like deflationary period where the 10-year hits 1%.
My extreme target to take profits no matter what is http://heavenskrowinvestments.blogspot. ... arget.html
146.35 on ZB chart... But you should add if we break out from the resistance line on davros's chart..... Just keep in mind the dollar is rallying despite the anticipation of Fed meeting.....
User avatar
BullBear52x
Posts: 29516
Joined: Tue Feb 22, 2011 3:47 pm

Re: 09/19/2011 Intraday Watering

Post by BullBear52x »

Triangle, continuation down play? Thanks Cobra and everyone,peace! short on.
Attachments
spy.JPG
My comments are for entertainment/educational purpose only. NOT a trade advice.
User avatar
heavenskrow
Posts: 1030
Joined: Tue Aug 16, 2011 11:17 am
Contact:

Re: 09/19/2011 Intraday Watering

Post by heavenskrow »

davros wrote:with bonds it's better to look at the real thing - ZB, not an etf like tlt, this should show pretty clear where we are
zb2.png
Davros please let me know when we break out from that resistance, so I can re-enter my 75% in TMF.

-I dont have realtime data on ZM =[
User avatar
BullTart
Posts: 398
Joined: Thu Sep 01, 2011 12:23 pm

Re: 09/19/2011 Intraday Watering

Post by BullTart »

Re: 09/19/2011 Intraday Watering
by heavenskrow » Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:50 pm

MajorEasy wrote:
MajorEasy wrote:
heavenskrow wrote:

Going back to the SP500's inception, with this strategy you would be up 172.62 % on your initial investment, and 54.55% probability of winning trades.


Thx for sharing

i've got some trading software that automaticcally measures the angle of the cross of the 2 moving averages to improve win-rate.
narrow angles during a cross is not good,
this current angle is as good as it can get.
let's see if it makes money....


wow thats pretty interesting, i wish mine could do that!
Thanks guys- very helpful information indeed!!!
ultramarine
Posts: 194
Joined: Fri Aug 26, 2011 9:25 am

Re: 09/19/2011 Intraday Watering

Post by ultramarine »

davros wrote:with bonds it's better to look at the real thing - ZB, not an etf like tlt, this should show pretty clear where we are
zb2.png
Agreed -- you can't beat the real thing. So a broadening top. Are you expecting another touch of the rising resistance line?
User avatar
99er
Posts: 3686
Joined: Mon Feb 14, 2011 3:43 pm
Contact:

Re: 09/19/2011 Intraday Watering

Post by 99er »

*
Last edited by 99er on Mon Sep 19, 2011 3:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
User avatar
Cobra
Site Admin
Posts: 58344
Joined: Sat Feb 12, 2011 10:29 pm

Re: 09/19/2011 Intraday Watering

Post by Cobra »

good, my statistics didn't cheat me, indeed the red line touched, I assume the higher red line will be touched too. let's see.
Attachments
1.png

Like to read more of my commentaries? Please subscribe my Daily Market Report.
Subscribers can find all the members only posts HERE.
StockCharts members, please vote for me HERE, thanks.
Post Reply