Mr. BachNut reporting in.
The NYMO cycle has turned down.
Yesterday's NYMO close was negative and was a lower low than the June 25 low.
A negative close today would further confirm the turn.
This gives us a benchmark price of SPX 2958.06, which was the high at the top of the up cycle.
The model gives good odds for price to go below the benchmark by the time the downcycle completes.
Pricewise, we knocked off a down gap target earlier this week and at the open today.
That leaves only a dozen!!! gaps below.
We have opened up a gap above at yesterday's close, but it is closing as I write.
I have marked a bit of a trend channel that formed after the initial surge from the June low.
We are trading about the bottom of the channel now.
So, it is fair to be prepared for a bounce and perhaps a test of recent highs.
Things got oversold yesterday, and OPEX is tomorrow. So, a lot can happen.
My SPX runner finally closed out yesterday.
I have opened up small shorts in SPX and R2K with room to build on a high retest or follow-through.
VIX is on the low side. So, the positions are on probation until a real trend clarifies.
I also have short time frame long setups percolating, so I may also end up long and short over the next few days.
Bottom line is we have the makings of a turn, but it needs more development. It could easily turn into a consolidation/continuation sort of thing.
We shall see.