08/17/2019 Weekend Update

[Cobra]

SPY down 3 weeks in a row, by on the Friday’s close (i.e. today), HOLD until the very first day SPY weekly is up, you have 75% chances to make money with profit factor 2.0 which is just right.

[Al_Dente]

One year, 52 weeks %
Up down, up down, SPX (purple) is a bit flat-ish over this one-year period.
Friday’s pop at a potential double-bottom saved us from going negative on the year.
It may depend on how traders react to the “5-card monte” from the administration (navarro: there is no inversion… trump: tariffs won’t hurt the U.S..... kudlow: I don't see a recession at all).
[The red-horizontal line is zero percent]

[Al_Dente]

Long term WEEKLY
Last October, the NYAD breakdown and the breakdown in the “percent-of-stocks-above-200ma” turned the long-term to red.
That hasn’t happened yet (long term).

JUST FOR FUN, here are the exact same measures in 2007-2009 for comparison.

[Al_Dente]

[Sven Henrich / NorthmanTrader.com]
Yes, Mr Henrich has been bearish for 1+ years. But his chatter is usually backed by lots of economic "proof" (lots of FRED charts) and not too much bs.
One day the market will prove him right. Here is his latest rant:

“Without intervention, without stimulus, without artificial help markets fall apart. If the Fed doesn’t cut rates in September markets plunge. Plain fact.
If the ECB doesn’t cut rates and outline a new QE program Europe is heading full into recession. If China or Switzerland or others don’t interfere in their currency markets things fall apart.
“… it is precisely because of deteriorating confidence and data that President Trump spectacularly choked this week. Having threatened to raise tariffs further on China ... it suddenly blew up in his face as markets sold off hard and recession risk exploded to the upside with yield curves inverting. Quick to try to repair the damage he suddenly announced a delay in tariffs only to see the resulting rally falter and the $DJIA drop 800 points in one day.
No wonder he called the big bank CEOs. Not the kind of headlines you want to see if you’re running for re-election. Hence the … tweets to suddenly say nice things about President Xi and to sheepishly suggest a face to face meeting, all are a classic attempts at jawboning and this weekend’s announcement to give Huawei reprieve is part of the same strategy.

“Bring trade hope back, bring optimism back. How long markets will fall for this remains to be seen. Strategically this public capitulation however gives the Chinese the upper hand in the trade war negotiations. They sense weakness … the longer there is no resolution the higher the risk of a global recession.

“Don’t expect Trump to be beneath agreeing to a shoddy marketing deal, as long as it serves the larger purpose, and therein lies the risk for bears: Get a surprise truce, or even a shoddy deal and a massive relief rally… into Q4 and push the global recession another year or 2 further into the future.

“… massive rate cuts and stimulus announcements and asset prices can once again race to the upside at least in the short term. That is the bull case. Intervention. Because this is what it takes.
“For bulls there is no choice but hope intervention works again, because without intervention natural price equilibrium is much lower … No intervention, no bull case. That’s the state of markets.

[BullBear52x]

From " It is what it is Department" Short term is bullish with lots of improvement on bottom foundation but internals are still weak, need to see $NYMO get stronger in coming week and price above mid range (20 MA) to be certain that short term bottom is in.

Bullish Candle/Bar signified bottom.

short term day trade I will follow this Fib level closely, sideways consolidation nothing more. anything could happen until a breakout one or the other. I am leaning bullish into next week. Trade well, Peace!