09/14/2019 Weekend Update

[Cobra]

Up 3 weeks in a row means 79% chances higher high ahead so we probably will see another all time new high the next week.

[Cobra]

The comments on weekly charts of some popular ETFs starting from the last 2 charts and the next few pages, updates every Friday.
https://stockcharts.com/public/1684859/tenpp/5

[Cobra]

The featured stocks (weekly) is opened for everyone here:
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2019/09 ... ks-weekly/

[Al_Dente]

Here’s a visual of last week’s decline in Momentum Stocks and rotation into Value Stocks.
With the Value rally coinciding with the rally in Yield (conversely, bonds down, not shown).

Reminder: MOMENTUM IS NOT AN INDEX. Whatever momo ETF you use will rebalance, often monthly. [eg: GS: “On average, nearly a quarter of the constituents in our Momentum factor are replaced during each monthly rebalance” …. So, at their next rebalance (early October), their Momo constituents will be quite different.

Also, there are too many symbol choices for Momo and Value. I “cherry picked” the two symbols that best illustrated the “The Historic Quant Crash,” the momentum crisis that the quants have been shrieking about since 9/6, as the “crowded” momentum trade sold off big, and an “unprecedented wave of short covering lifted value/low-volatility stocks.”

Finally, GS weighed in on Thursday 9/12:
“Q3: What should we expect for Momentum going forward?
"Sharp Momentum drawdowns similar to the one that has taken place in the last two weeks usually mark the end of the Momentum rallies rather than tactical buying opportunities.
“At the industry level, the Momentum reversal has reflected a rotation away from bond proxies like Utilities and secular growth stocks like Software & Services in favor of cyclicals like Consumer Durables that had lagged during most of the past 12 months.
"…investors need to diversify their bond and bond proxy risk.”

Daily:

[Al_Dente]

"S&P 500 up 13 of last 16 September option expiration weeks"
" Friday had been firm with all three indices advancing every year 2004 to 2011, but S&P 500 has been down six of the last seven since."
https://jeffhirsch.tumblr.com/

[tsf]

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/ ... lity-saudi
zerohedge
Oil To Hit $100? Half Of Saudi Oil Output Shut After Drone Strikes Cripple World's Largest Oil Processing Facility

https://twitter.com/NorthmanTrader/stat ... 5479471106
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EEcUXQTXsAA ... name=small
Sven Henrich @NorthmanTrader
In light of the drone attack and oil production shutdown in Saudi Arabia here's a technical lens to be mindful of.
Lower highs since 2008.
Higher lows since 2016.
Upper trend line resistance now near $70.
Break above $70 could target $81.
Sustained break above $81, watch out.

[BullBear52x]

From "It is what it is department": Bullish, overbought, and testing 2x top area. your time frames is only a good answer how to position for this. Any time frame other than intraday day trading is bullish dips will be bought. For counter trend and short term position time to be a little cautious, top or bottom has to start somewhere but no one know when or where? so, I am expecting a little more pull back, say...until Hourly RSI(5) dips below 30. at the minimum.

Daily momentum internals are all positive, nothing pointing to the end is near.

Counter trend " Always sell 2x top" there is some weakness and caution among the buyers here.

up channel is about to crack, will it? only time will tell. Trade well, Peace!

[1der]

How timely re drone strike on SA oil refinery - right before the Fed meeting.
Guess this gives them an excuse to hide behind to do the rate cut.