Back to www.cobrasmarketview.com

01/16/2020 Live Update

User avatar
Al_Dente
Posts: 28535
Joined: Thu Jul 21, 2011 2:29 pm

Re: 01/16/2020 Live Update

Post by Al_Dente »

From the BBC:
Loser: Farmers and manufacturers
The new deal commits China to boost purchases in manufacturing, services, agriculture and energy from 2017 levels by $200bn over two years.
Mr Trump has said that could include as $50bn worth of agricultural goods a year.
But other officials have put the figure lower and analysts are sceptical. So far, the primary effect on business has been pain.
Farmers, who have been targeted by China's tariffs, have seen bankruptcies soar, prompting a $28bn federal bailout.
Among manufacturers, the Federal Reserve has found employment losses, stemming from the higher import costs and China's retaliation.
Over the long-term, American firms may reroute supply chains away from China to avoid the tariffs - but that's an expensive prospect.

As Bloomberg's Tracy Alloway adds: "A lot of American farmers are going to be disappointed with this trade agreement. Soybean prices are plummeting after the deal failed to include a specific $ amount for China's purchases of U.S. soy. All this just a few months before planting season!"
Disclaimer: I am not an investment advisor. This is just my opinion NOT investment advice.
User avatar
BullBear52x
Posts: 29516
Joined: Tue Feb 22, 2011 3:47 pm

Re: 01/16/2020 Live Update

Post by BullBear52x »

Wishful thinking. I am on the red.
Attachments
1.PNG
My comments are for entertainment/educational purpose only. NOT a trade advice.
User avatar
BullBear52x
Posts: 29516
Joined: Tue Feb 22, 2011 3:47 pm

Re: 01/16/2020 Live Update

Post by BullBear52x »

Al_Dente wrote:From the BBC:
Loser: Farmers and manufacturers
The new deal commits China to boost purchases in manufacturing, services, agriculture and energy from 2017 levels by $200bn over two years.
Mr Trump has said that could include as $50bn worth of agricultural goods a year.
But other officials have put the figure lower and analysts are sceptical. So far, the primary effect on business has been pain.
Farmers, who have been targeted by China's tariffs, have seen bankruptcies soar, prompting a $28bn federal bailout.
Among manufacturers, the Federal Reserve has found employment losses, stemming from the higher import costs and China's retaliation.
Over the long-term, American firms may reroute supply chains away from China to avoid the tariffs - but that's an expensive prospect.

As Bloomberg's Tracy Alloway adds: "A lot of American farmers are going to be disappointed with this trade agreement. Soybean prices are plummeting after the deal failed to include a specific $ amount for China's purchases of U.S. soy. All this just a few months before planting season!"
today's economic calendar release, so far they are not that bad.
Attachments
1.PNG
My comments are for entertainment/educational purpose only. NOT a trade advice.
User avatar
Mr. BachNut
Posts: 2688
Joined: Thu Feb 24, 2011 2:28 pm

Re: 01/16/2020 Live Update

Post by Mr. BachNut »

Bonus chart...

Been talking a lot (too much...) about gaps.
Gaps in the ES future are comparatively rare compared to the underlying index.
The contract is traded pretty continuously, only closed briefly at the end of the day and over the weekend.
Rarer still is an ES gap that doesn't get closed eventually.

So, this bull channel with three open gaps is a sight to see.
ES 011619.jpg
User avatar
Al_Dente
Posts: 28535
Joined: Thu Jul 21, 2011 2:29 pm

Re: 01/16/2020 Live Update

Post by Al_Dente »

Rob Hanna:
"In the last 67 trading days, there have only been 5 closes below the 10ma for SPX. There has not been a 67-day period with only 5 closes below the 10ma since 1972. And looking back to 1928 (when the S&P 500 was 90), there have only been 6 other instances:
https://quantifiableedges.com/the-remar ... -qe-rally/
Disclaimer: I am not an investment advisor. This is just my opinion NOT investment advice.
Heck
Posts: 2535
Joined: Thu Nov 15, 2012 4:56 pm
Location: Lake Tahoe, Nevada

Re: 01/16/2020 Live Update

Post by Heck »

C/P Index Long Opening Undervalued PUTS Twice Calls = DOWN

Two/Three C/P Long Opening Sentiment Indicators = DOWN DOWN

Extreme Greed Falling Fear/Greed 88 = DOWN

Negative $TICK = DOWN
https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/USI-TICK/

$TRIN > 1 = DOWN

$SPX SELLING Below 3,317.11 (edit)

Fed folly does not an eternal bull make
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WALCL

In the land of the blind
The one-eyed man is king

"One swallow does not a summer make, nor one fine day'
Last edited by Heck on Thu Jan 16, 2020 8:23 pm, edited 5 times in total.
K447
Posts: 763
Joined: Fri Aug 26, 2011 10:43 am
Contact:

Re: Remembering Apple sucesses and Google non-successes

Post by K447 »

BullBear52x wrote:... remember i-watch and Google glasses :lol:
Apple Watch? A device business the size of a Fortune xxx company by itself. Increasing in sales volume every year.

Same with Apple AirPods. Huge sales success. And apparently still accelerating. New versions released with higher prices, and sales volume going up.

Tip: Apple has not used the i prefix on a new product line since 2010.
Apple never called it i-watch, ever.

In contrast, Google has rarely had significant sales volume success with a hardware product.
Google has a long running history of introducing servces and products and then allowing them to fade away or be killed off.

What do you mean about 'remembering' these things?
User avatar
Cobra
Site Admin
Posts: 58337
Joined: Sat Feb 12, 2011 10:29 pm

Re: 01/16/2020 Live Update

Post by Cobra »


Like to read more of my commentaries? Please subscribe my Daily Market Report.
Subscribers can find all the members only posts HERE.
StockCharts members, please vote for me HERE, thanks.
User avatar
Cobra
Site Admin
Posts: 58337
Joined: Sat Feb 12, 2011 10:29 pm

Re: 01/16/2020 Live Update

Post by Cobra »

Consolidation so breakout is more likely.
Attachments
1.png

Like to read more of my commentaries? Please subscribe my Daily Market Report.
Subscribers can find all the members only posts HERE.
StockCharts members, please vote for me HERE, thanks.
User avatar
BullBear52x
Posts: 29516
Joined: Tue Feb 22, 2011 3:47 pm

Re: Remembering Apple sucesses and Google non-successes

Post by BullBear52x »

K447 wrote:
BullBear52x wrote:... remember i-watch and Google glasses :lol:
Apple Watch? A device business the size of a Fortune xxx company by itself. Increasing in sales volume every year.

Same with Apple AirPods. Huge sales success. And apparently still accelerating. New versions released with higher prices, and sales volume going up.

Tip: Apple has not used the i prefix on a new product line since 2010.
Apple never called it i-watch, ever.

In contrast, Google has rarely had significant sales volume success with a hardware product.
Google has a long running history of introducing servces and products and then allowing them to fade away or be killed off.

What do you mean about 'remembering' these things?
any new hot product have a cycle, Apple need new product line once this Airpod are peak in sales.
My comments are for entertainment/educational purpose only. NOT a trade advice.
User avatar
BullBear52x
Posts: 29516
Joined: Tue Feb 22, 2011 3:47 pm

Re: 01/16/2020 Live Update

Post by BullBear52x »

lots of spinning today, spinning top comes to mind.
My comments are for entertainment/educational purpose only. NOT a trade advice.
User avatar
JFR
Posts: 10125
Joined: Sun Dec 02, 2012 7:24 pm

Re: 01/16/2020 Live Update

Post by JFR »

ES 5. Down beneath the EMA 20. Trying to break out of the range.

2020-01-16_0930.png
Charts posted are not recommendations. They are just a sharing of information.
K447
Posts: 763
Joined: Fri Aug 26, 2011 10:43 am
Contact:

Re: Remembering Apple successes and Google non-successes

Post by K447 »

BullBear52x wrote:
K447 wrote:
BullBear52x wrote:... remember i-watch and Google glasses :lol:
Apple Watch? A device business the size of a Fortune xxx company by itself. Increasing in sales volume every year.

Same with Apple AirPods. Huge sales success. And apparently still accelerating. New versions released with higher prices, and sales volume going up.

Tip: Apple has not used the i prefix on a new product line since 2010.
Apple never called it i-watch, ever.

In contrast, Google has rarely had significant sales volume success with a hardware product.
Google has a long running history of introducing servces and products and then allowing them to fade away or be killed off.

What do you mean about 'remembering' these things?
any new hot product have a cycle, Apple need new product line once this Airpod are peak in sales.
You want to bet (right now?) against Apple creating ANOTHER (or more likely, several more) successful products in the coming years?

Let alone the ongoing success of existing products? iPhone continues to be a marvel of profit and consistency. iPad, Mac soldier onwards with consistent sales and profit. For years.

Regarding AirPods, Apple literally cannot make them fast enough to meet demand. And they are making a LOT, around the clock. Will it eventually level out? Of course, but that level may be a lot higher than you are suggesting. And then generate huge consistent profits for years. Talk about an annuity. These things have a finite in-service lifespan AND people love them.

The stock is not the company. Apple is hugely profitable and shall contnue to be so. It makes products that people buy, in huge numbers. And keep doing so.

If you want to short the stock because it 'seems high', go right ahead. But do not rely upon imaginary 'fundamental' issues with the products or corporate execution that do not exist.
User avatar
JFR
Posts: 10125
Joined: Sun Dec 02, 2012 7:24 pm

Re: 01/16/2020 Live Update

Post by JFR »

XLRE. Another good day. Same with IYR.

AAPL? Nice products. I still have the original iPad, and the original Bondi Blue iMac (oops, I forgot I gave it away), not taking up too much space. I had an iPhone too, but now use android cell phones. For a desktop, however, I use PCs. AAPL's fundamentals look very good still. I did think it would suffer in the absence of Steve Jobs; not so.

XLRE.png
2020-01-16_1001.png
Last edited by JFR on Thu Jan 16, 2020 2:10 pm, edited 2 times in total.
Charts posted are not recommendations. They are just a sharing of information.
User avatar
Cobra
Site Admin
Posts: 58337
Joined: Sat Feb 12, 2011 10:29 pm

Re: 01/16/2020 Live Update

Post by Cobra »

It's a perfect breakout pattern now, so still breakout is more likely.
Attachments
1.png

Like to read more of my commentaries? Please subscribe my Daily Market Report.
Subscribers can find all the members only posts HERE.
StockCharts members, please vote for me HERE, thanks.
User avatar
BullBear52x
Posts: 29516
Joined: Tue Feb 22, 2011 3:47 pm

Re: 01/16/2020 Live Update

Post by BullBear52x »

RSI (5) on weekly > 95 reading. we should get a week pull back soon. ways too happy out there. CPC < .8 3 days in a row so far.
Attachments
1.PNG
My comments are for entertainment/educational purpose only. NOT a trade advice.
User avatar
BullBear52x
Posts: 29516
Joined: Tue Feb 22, 2011 3:47 pm

Re: 01/16/2020 Live Update

Post by BullBear52x »

I would not expect much of a pull back until the lower wedge breached.
Attachments
1.PNG
My comments are for entertainment/educational purpose only. NOT a trade advice.
User avatar
BullBear52x
Posts: 29516
Joined: Tue Feb 22, 2011 3:47 pm

Re: 01/16/2020 Live Update

Post by BullBear52x »

AAPL, ain't turning back, it can't. :lol: :lol: :lol:
Attachments
1.PNG
My comments are for entertainment/educational purpose only. NOT a trade advice.
User avatar
BullBear52x
Posts: 29516
Joined: Tue Feb 22, 2011 3:47 pm

Re: 01/16/2020 Live Update

Post by BullBear52x »

look at your $TICK, bull trap
My comments are for entertainment/educational purpose only. NOT a trade advice.
User avatar
JFR
Posts: 10125
Joined: Sun Dec 02, 2012 7:24 pm

Re: 01/16/2020 Live Update

Post by JFR »

ES 5. Pulling back from a higher level of resistance.

2020-01-16_1058.png
Charts posted are not recommendations. They are just a sharing of information.
Post Reply