01/31/2020 Live Update

[Heck]

TLT Target + 51 %
From 145.09 to 219
+ 3.14 % T Yield

[QED]

If I was any good at this Elliot Wave stuff I would say the bulls really need to prove this was just an ABC pullback before moving on up to new highs next week. Otherwise I would be looking for a 5th wave down somewhat similar in size to the overnight drop.

Coolbiz shifted to the alternate count after the algos struck yesterday calling for the low to be in. Confident he will be updating over the weekend, so I will dutifully transfer his thoughts to my 4 hour chart and post on Sunday. I have lost count but he is somewhere around 85 ES points in profit since the high trading his usual 20 contracts. He also rode Tesla and Amazon rocket blasts at earnings and promptly got out as soon as the boosters stopped firing.

I think he is looking at the downside targets.
https://twitter.com/coolbizone/status/1 ... 2497986560
.

[Heck]

All Three ISE Option Sentiment Indices = DOWN DOWN DOWN

Carnage Continues

[JFR]

ES 5. Getting squeezed between the trendline and the support level. Waiting for a breakout. It is difficult to get away from the keyboard here.

[Al_Dente]

shots fired at Mar-a-Lago

[Trades with cats]

Coolbiz targets were and are 3220-3145 or lower.Price stopped going up at his line in the sand. Just amazing when it works.

Wanted to be clear, the downside today started after the Euro zone markets opened and our bounce happened when they closed. China sort of returns to regular activities Sunday night. I would expect that the "National Team" will be ordered to buy stock and set up a Monday gap and go. Wither the US based algos have anything to squeeze is another story.

[JFR]

ES 5. Riding the trendline back down to support, in the triangle. Later ...

[Al_Dente]

Here is Nomura's gamma chatter:
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/real- ... to+zero%29

[Trades with cats]

Here is Nomura's gamma chatter:
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/real- ... to+zero%29

"In short: with CTAs now liquidation and with gamma no longer a "natural" offset to any selloff, should the selloff accelerate here as L/S funds capitulate, the Fed may have no choice but to intervene to avoid a rout."

IF the Chinese internal debt bomb starts to go off the Fed will be powerless. Daniel DeMartino Booth was making the point this morning that the Fed has no idea where the cross connects are, pointing out that with sub prime the first to blow up were the German Landisbanks.

[Trades with cats]

Trying for a range. But my track record is not good today.

[Al_Dente]

VIX is up 24% today

[JFR]

ES 5. From a support level, back up to and through the EMA 20. Bulls fighting back, as they always do.

[Heck]

Market in Fear 44
44 CNN Fear points to Fall
DOWN

The Slippery Slope

[JFR]

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock ... od=markets

From MarketWatch

Take a deep breath. Ummm, no. Many places in the world are a nightmare.

[daytradingES]

trying to decide if LOD is in or to sell on a bounce
Worried about US govt buy program coming in to revert the route

[JFR]

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/godfa ... od=markets

A pioneer in the field of price chart-based trading, Acampora told MarketWatch during a Friday interview that he thinks that the coronavirus fears are a catalyst for a market that had gotten too pricey and was due for a substantial pullback.

“The market itself was stretched, which is true, so we were begging for some kind of correction and this is the catalyst,” he said. He is expecting that the stock market will face at least a 10% drop from its recent peak, which would meet the criteria for a bona fide correction held by most market technicians.

[Trades with cats]

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/godfa ... od=markets

True That.

[Cobra]

Maybe, say 51% chances the low was in for today.

[Al_Dente]

China Reopens On Monday
What To Expect:
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/what- ... to+zero%29

[JFR]

Not to be negative or scary or "the sky is falling," but rather to just take note of some realities, and to count one's blessings, as we live in North America. The picture of a Chinese city with the smokestacks got my attention. Sitting at home, playing the stock market. China. Kibera. Rio. Syria.