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No idea up or down from here. The rebound overnight looks impressive though so maybe bias is up?
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May test the Friday high, breakout would mean a late uptrend day in which case I'll still treat it as a range day.
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Fund rebalancing nearly done... tomorrow is last day of the month so should be over soon.
Funds have no choice but to increase their equity exposure before month-end to be in line with their prospectus. They have to buy. Perhaps the best illustration was the morning when unemployment claims came out a lot worse than expected and the markets skyrocketed through what seemed like a very controlled programmatic buying program.
Fund also aren't stupid. They realize that once month-end rebalancing is over, there may be a dearth of buyers and the levitation game may sink real quick.
So what do they do? They buy protection through put options.
What does that do? Well, it keeps the vix elevated... like even if the SPX rises, the VIX doesn't go down. Because the funds are paying premium for protection. Because month end rebalancing is coming to an end.
Anyways, that's my current trading strategy. Technicals help me scale more efficiently in and out of that thesis.
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