Mr. B here.
The NYMO cycle is down.
It is in the lower turn zone as I write, so time to be watching for a turn up, perhaps next week.
Alternatively, there is still a ways to go before hitting the oversold zone.
The last up cycle was very minor. I consider it a corrective within a bigger down cycle from the June 8 high.
Price-wise we are in a key time.
After busting above the 200 MA at the end of May, we backtested it as support in mid-June and are now testing it again.
It got tagged yesterday and bounced.
We also have a rising middle keltner approaching.
There is also a positive price divergence against the weak NYMO. This is typically bullish behavior.
All that said, closes below the June 15th low would argue a failed breakout and test of the 200 MA and a broad sell-off could ensue.
Conversely, closes above the June 8th high would argue a successful breakout and a new bull market.
There are intriguing gap targets in both directions.
So, we have a bull/bear battle. NYMO suggests the bears are winning. Price suggests the bulls are holding the line.
Price rules.
I am short the R2K with one scale in the bank. I have room to add on a bounce or even on follow-through.
I have short setups percolating on SPX too but they need better price action to get going.